5 Massive Questions Concerning the 2026 Season

Right here at FanGraphs, we make loads of daring predictions. The complete workers makes them in a site-wide train that can come out tomorrow. I made 10 extra of my very own on Successfully Wild. Traditionally, I made 5 daring predictions concerning the season on this area as effectively. However I’ve been crowded out! Daring predictions are all over the place now. Meg and I got here up with a substitute final yr, and I loved it sufficient that I’m bringing it again once more: 5 large questions concerning the season. These aren’t the one large questions I’ve. They aren’t essentially the most important questions in baseball. I don’t know the solutions to any of them. However all 5 of those are unresolved questions that can assist to form the 2026 season, and all 5 fascinate me.

1. Do the Brewers Nonetheless Know Finest?
The sorts of nerdy followers who learn (and write for) FanGraphs have at all times had a data-driven workforce to root for. The Moneyball A’s predate this web site. The Rays took that blueprint and ran with it. Earlier than the Astros went full banging scheme, they revolutionized participant improvement. The Guardians develop pitchers higher than nearly everybody else. The Brewers are the newest mannequin; they do issues somewhat bit in a different way than the remainder of the league, in line with some inside blueprint, and their plan works. They’ve the third-most wins within the league over the past 5 years regardless of operating one of many lowest payrolls. It seems to be like their run atop the NL Central would possibly proceed indefinitely.

After all, it felt just like the earlier analytical darling groups would maintain their runs going perpetually, too. The A’s fell off onerous after their peak. The Rays look rather a lot much less magical right this moment than they did 4 years in the past. No benefit lasts perpetually; when you have some form of secret sauce that actually does work, each different workforce in baseball will probably be making an attempt to determine the recipe.

From the skin, it’s clear that the Brewers do a minimum of three issues very effectively: They develop good pitchers, discover quick and athletic place gamers who ship loads of WAR with out gaudy batting statistics, and proactively commerce established gamers for prospects who match their most well-liked pitching and hitting archetypes.

This yr, the Brewers are attempting to do all three of these issues without delay. They traded two beginning place gamers and their prime beginning pitcher. They’re filling in these slots with a combination of their very own prospects and the fellows they acquired in these offers. Final yr, the Brewers beat their projections largely due to shock seasons from guys they’d lately acquired. This yr, they’re going to attempt to do it once more, with a unique group of men they’ve lately acquired. That’s onerous!

The market isn’t environment friendly. The Brewers actually have confirmed their skill to seek out edges that different groups don’t see or can’t put into apply. However these benefits aren’t everlasting, and it’s troublesome to know prematurely when their effectiveness will degrade. Brandon Sproat, Kyle Harrison, and Luis Rengifo weren’t Brewers final yr, they usually didn’t assist their respective groups out all that a lot. This yr, they’re all projected starters for Milwaukee. If the Brewers nonetheless have the magic contact, it’ll all work out. In the event that they don’t, it’ll be straightforward to query them looking back. However you by no means know when your One Silly Trick will cease working, a minimum of till that really occurs.

2. Can the Padres Maintain Youngsters off Their Garden?
The Padres have been one of the thrilling groups of the 2020s. They promote their very own prospects aggressively, make splashy trades, spend in free company, and general act like they’re really in a must-win state of affairs always. I consider them as younger upstarts within the established order of issues, with their vivid uniforms and pleasant younger stars prime of thoughts once I think about what’s occurring in San Diego.

The uniform a part of that’s nonetheless true. The age half isn’t, although. Padres hitters are the third-oldest group in baseball, primarily based on our mixture enjoying time projections. Certain, Tatis is nicknamed “El Niño,” however he’s 27. All these years of buying and selling minor leaguers for veteran performers have left Jackson Merrill as the one hitter on the 26-man roster youthful than Tatis. The truth is, these two and Gavin Sheets are the one three beginning place gamers who will probably be of their 20s on Opening Day, and Sheets turns 30 subsequent month.

I can perceive how A.J. Preller ended up on this state of affairs. He’s confirmed adept at discovering worth from reclamation-project veterans lately. The mathematics retains lining up – get a star for some good-but-not-great minor leaguers, then exchange these minor leaguers in your depth chart with the likes of Miguel Andujar or Nick Castellanos. However this workforce has gotten very previous, as a result of its finest gamers are growing old at a price of 1 yr per yr (yep, math checks out), whereas the rotating supporting solid isn’t getting get any youthful, due to the fixed churn of exchanging prospects for veterans.

The rotation is extra of the identical. It’s not the oldest in baseball, however San Diego is one in all six groups whose common starter age exceeds 31. For the report, the others are the Cubs, Blue Jays, Tigers, Rangers, and Rockies (?!). The place many groups would fill behind their rotation with prospects, the Padres are going with vets seeking to rebound: Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler are each beginning the yr within the rotation. Ignoring relievers, the Padres are the oldest workforce in baseball. Including relievers, they’re a part of a five-way tie for the oldest; the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Padres all challenge for a median age between 30.27 and 30.35.

This trajectory can’t proceed perpetually. The Padres have gotten by as a result of their stars are nice and since Preller is maxing out the veteran retread pipeline (and the NPB/KBO pipeline, too, it needs to be famous). However the stars gained’t keep this nice perpetually, the veterans he brings in gained’t at all times pan out, and a chronic farm system deficit is making it ever tougher for the Padres to retool in the course of the season once they want depth. I don’t know if that is the final yr the present Padres core will compete for a title, however certainly that point is coming quickly.

3. How Lengthy Till the Problem System Feels Regular?
Challenges are so sizzling proper now. I can’t go a day with out seeing a brand new leaderboard on Baseball Savant, or studying an article about how a workforce plans to deploy its challenges this yr. Questions on them pepper my inbox. Will they assist hitters? Pitchers? Will they modify the character of catching? Will sure pitches change into overpowered attributable to bizarre interactions between the brand new rulebook zone and the acute break that some slower deliveries can produce?

This isn’t a daring prediction article, so I’ll make a milquetoast projection as an alternative: In a number of years, we’ll all really feel completely regular about this method. The query, in my thoughts, is how lengthy it’ll take earlier than challenges really feel not like an space for groups to derive a bonus however merely a traditional a part of the sport.

My level of comparability for that is tennis, which instituted a problem system for in/out line calls in 2006. It used the identical Hawk-Eye expertise that powers Statcast right this moment. It was a curiosity when it got here out – after which fairly shortly, it was simply a part of the sport. Tennis announcers and followers went from marveling on the cameras and discussing problem technique to simply ignoring it. Extra calls had been made accurately. (By definition: a problem system is the previous system plus some likelihood of correcting an incorrect name.) The calls that modified made the sport higher by correcting an oversight. Everybody prospered. I feel baseball will comply with the identical path.

The optimum problem technique most likely isn’t fascinating. It includes difficult hardly ever or under no circumstances in early innings, notably in conditions the place the decision doesn’t result in a strikeout or stroll. In later innings, you’ll be able to widen your threshold for difficult, each as a result of some conditions can have extraordinarily excessive leverage and since you don’t get to take the challenges house with you when you fail to make use of them. Each referred to as strike three within the ninth inning – and each pitch that might have been referred to as strike three however was as an alternative referred to as a ball – is truthful recreation for a problem as a result of the rewards are simply that prime.

You may at all times problem when you’re very certain the decision is incorrect, too, however in apply, nobody has been all that correct at difficult to this point. That was true in tennis, too, and the uncertainty is amplified in baseball. It’s simply how the human mind works; the ball is shifting too quick on your eyes to truly see it regularly, so your mind makes some assumptions about the place it goes within the interim. There isn’t even a bodily strike zone; it’s a must to guess the place that’s, too.

In 10 years, the zone will most likely be referred to as utterly by computer systems. However lengthy earlier than we get there, I feel the problem system will change into a totally accepted a part of the sport, a small device that primarily helps appropriate two issues: clearly incorrect calls, and incorrect calls in vital conditions. It’s only a matter of how lengthy it takes to get there, and the way hyperbolic all of us get concerning the significance of challenges within the meantime.

4. Who’s the Finest Hitter within the AL West?
For fairly awhile now, the three finest hitters in baseball have been Aaron Decide, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto in some order. You’ll be able to throw Ronald Acuña Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. into the combination to make a prime 5 when you’d like. Perhaps you can add Bryce Harper when you worth fame over current outcomes, or Bobby Witt Jr. if we’re speaking about general offensive worth as an alternative of merely batting. I feel that one AL West hitter will crack this listing this yr. I’m simply not utterly certain who that will probably be.

May it’s Cal Raleigh? Actually. He simply hit 60 homers and completed second within the AL MVP voting. He posted a 161 wRC+ with stable peripherals, and he’s within the prime of his profession. The Mariners DH him loads to maintain his legs recent although he’s an amazing defensive catcher, as a result of they know his bat is simply that beneficial. He walks a ton, strikes out a suitable quantity, and does it from each side of the plate. However he’s really the least doubtless reply to this query out of the three names I’m contemplating right here.

May it’s Yordan Alvarez? Little doubt. Yeah, Raleigh had a profession yr, however Alvarez’s profession wRC+ is definitely higher than Raleigh’s single-season 2025 mark. Accidents held Alvarez again final yr, however even then, he walked nearly as a lot as he struck out and smashed the ball to all fields with authority. He hardly ever chases, makes a surprising quantity of contact for a person with 97th-percentile bat pace, and places the ball within the air with out popping it up.

Don’t overlook about Nick Kurtz, both. The Athletics phenom exploded into prominence final yr, posting the very best batting line for a rookie since… effectively, since Alvarez debuted in 2019. Kurtz has a Yordanian recreation, too. He’s a mountain of a person, and he takes large hacks aimed toward getting the ball within the air to all fields. He struck out 31% of the time in his debut, which is a minor fear, however I’m prepared to grant him the good thing about the doubt. Kurtz bought drafted in 2024 and barely performed within the minors; adjusting to large league pitching whereas posting a 170 wRC+ is simply additional proof of his precocious expertise and skill to enhance quickly.

The perfect hitter of this trio isn’t assured to make the playoffs, simply so we’re clear. Baseball hardly ever works that cleanly. However all three of those guys have large error bars on their projections in 2026. Raleigh simply put up the very best season of his life and has to repeat it. Alvarez has to indicate that he’s wholesome once more. Kurtz has to show that he’s not only a flash within the pan. We’ll know much more about the way forward for the division at yr’s finish, as a result of I feel we’ll have a significantly better thought of how good these superstars are. I’m undecided who will come out on prime – or whether or not Julio Rodríguez, Brent Rooker, or Corey Seager will crash the get together – however all three have the expertise and observe report to complete the yr within the pantheon of baseball’s absolute best.

5. Will Anybody Throw 200 Innings?
In 2021, main league pitchers had been nonetheless reeling from the shortened pandemic season. With little workload to construct off of from the earlier yr, innings totals and readiness fell precipitously. Solely 4 pitchers crested the 200-inning mark, the bottom full-season mark in baseball historical past. It was a surprising downturn; 15 pitchers hit the mark in 2019, and a full 28 had finished in order lately as 2015.

In 2022, pitchers rebounded considerably; eight starters threw 200 or extra innings. However there was extra contributing to the broader pattern than simply the pandemic. In 2023, solely 5 pitchers did it. Solely 4 did in 2024. And in 2025, solely three pitchers – Logan Webb, Garrett Crochet, and Cristopher Sánchez – tallied 200. That’s the brand new all-time low, but when the traits maintain, it gained’t keep that means for lengthy. We’re ultimately going to have a yr with no 200-inning pitchers. The query is when.

Webb is the very best guess to do it. He’s topped 200 innings for 3 straight seasons. However it’s been a close to factor; he had 204 2/3 in 2024 and 207 in a league-leading 34 begins in ‘25. One quick begin or one skipped flip may go away him quick. Crochet and Sánchez are first-time 200 Membership members, and every has an fascinating outlook in ‘26; Crochet definitely seems to be the a part of an old-school innings eater, however he missed a lot time attributable to damage early in his profession that he’s new to hefty workloads. Sánchez seems to be like a pure Webb successor – similar sinker-based recreation, similar good command – nevertheless it’s needed to challenge one other 200-inning season from him when he’s solely reached that mark as soon as in his profession.

Whereas I’m fascinated by every of these pitchers, the macro view is much more fascinating. Check out how groups have behaved in current winters. Bulk starter innings are extraordinarily beneficial on the free agent market. Everybody’s in search of seven starters, not 5. There are such a lot of innings to fill that groups are aggressively pursuing all types of options. Older starters from overseas leagues? Reliever conversions? Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer? The whole lot’s on the desk.

However regardless of that starvation for innings, concentrated quantity retains declining. Pitching is efficacious partially as a result of it’s so fragile, and groups have gotten caught between preserving the long-term availability of their finest guys and managing the short-term requirements of fielding a full roster. Certain, you’d love 230 innings out of your ace. However when you understand the damage danger of these 230 innings to be excessive, possibly you’d settle for 180 out of your ace and 50 from a random veteran. Come playoff time, this trade-off goes away, however now that everybody makes the playoffs, the distinction between 50 common innings and 50 elite ones is more and more a value groups are prepared to pay for well being.

There’s no rule that claims it has to maintain going this fashion. My view is that processes like these typically self-perpetuate till they’ve gone too far, however then the snap-back can occur shortly. There’s no method to inform whether or not we’ve hit the underside but, although. The simultaneous seek for bulk innings and the restriction of top-end starter workloads has outlined main league roster development for fairly awhile now. I’m serious about seeing whether or not it continues apace this yr, or whether or not we’ve reached some form of native minimal in workloads for the very best starters within the league.