If you run a number of projections, one factor it’s a must to get used to is being very mistaken, fairly often. The ZiPS projections typically run about 4,000 gamers yearly, that means it’s best to anticipate round 800 gamers to both obtain their Ninetieth-percentile projection or fall wanting their Tenth-percentile projection. These lots of of outcomes will invariably be fairly a distance away from the usual midpoint projections that you just see.
As is my ritual, it’s time to run my two articles discussing my favourite booms and busts of the upcoming season, beginning with the hitters at present and concluding with the pitchers subsequent week. However simply to maintain the ritual of humiliation absolutely clear, we’ll begin by final yr’s booms and busts.
Szymborski’s 2025 Increase Hitters
Szymborski’s 2025 Bust Hitters
Oof, ritual humiliation certainly! The booms didn’t pan out effectively in 2025, even in the event you give me beneficiant credit score and mark my picks of Joe Mack and Gage Workman as incomplete. The busts labored out a lot better — from my viewpoint, at the very least — nevertheless it’s rather a lot much less enjoyable to be proper concerning the unhealthy stuff. Effectively, let’s get to 2026, and bear in mind to provide your picks within the feedback so as to be a part of me on this train!
The Booms!
Andrew Vaughn, Milwaukee Brewers
Vaughn undoubtedly confirmed indicators of a breakout after becoming a member of the Brewers final summer season, however the projection techniques have all been actually sluggish to regulate their sights upward. I think Vaughn is far nearer to his Milwaukee wRC+ final yr (142) than the projections recommend, and I believe that the drastic change in his strategy is one thing that’s exhausting for a pc to seize. His out-of-zone swing share all of a sudden straightened from a query mark into an exclamation level, and that has continued into the spring. He’s all the time hit the ball exhausting, and he was developed very oddly by the White Sox, promoted very aggressively to the majors with out actually ever hitting a lot in opposition to minor league pitching. And as soon as he began having bother within the majors, the White Sox appeared to don’t know how to make things better. The Brewers are actually intelligent at this sort of factor, and I see Vaughn as a great All-Star candidate, and definitely higher than the roughly 100 wRC+ that the projections are giving him.
Carter Jensen, Kansas Metropolis Royals
Salvador Perez is a franchise icon, so supplanting him because the beginning catcher can be a problem for Jensen. However together with Kevin McGonigle, Jensen is one in every of my AL Rookie of the Yr favorites, and he has the super offensive upside that the Royals sorely want. He’s not a Gold Glover, however he’s a much more achieved defensive participant than MJ Melendez, the final Kansas Metropolis catching prospect that didn’t push Perez to DH for good.
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Jac Caglianone, Kansas Metropolis Royals
I used to be campaigning exhausting final yr for the Royals to take an opportunity and promote Caglianone as shortly as attainable, since he had the potential to treatment their critical offensive issues within the outfield. They did promote him and… it didn’t work out all that effectively. To the group’s credit score, Kansas Metropolis didn’t panic and banish him to Triple-A after his first week or two. However he by no means did flip issues round, and was hindered for a time by a hamstring harm. I nonetheless assume that was the proper factor to do, and I believe it’ll work out this yr.
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
However Dan, Turang already had a increase season final yr! He did, however I believe there’s really extra in his bat. He added an absurd quantity of velocity to his swing in 2025 — 4 mph from his 2024 stage — and the end result was a hard-hit fee that jumped a stunning 60%. And also you noticed the strategy develop into an increasing number of power-centric because the season went on; within the second half of the season, he pulled the ball within the air with extra loft and hit 12 dwelling runs in 63 video games. So I don’t assume a 25-homer season, about 10 greater than probably the most bullish projections anticipate, could be a bizarre end result.
Justin Crawford, Philadelphia Phillies
Crawford nonetheless hits too many groundballs, and has had a typically awful spring, however I believe he’s largely underrated as an total participant. He makes good contact, and together with his velocity, he ought to have the ability to preserve a surprisingly excessive BABIP within the majors. Additionally, the Johan Rojas suspension removes a attainable impediment for Crawford to get common enjoying time even when he will get off to a nasty begin. He’s most likely not ever going to be an enormous loft man, however I can undoubtedly see him racking up a billion doubles if a few of these grounders can develop into liners into the gaps.
Kemp Alderman, Miami Marlins
The projections don’t like Alderman. ZiPS has him with a wRC+ of 89, and that projection system is the good one on him. However he additionally has a fully obscene quantity of energy, and if the Marlins are aggressive, they’re going to spend the summer season making an attempt to get as a lot offense into that lineup as attainable. He solely reached Triple-A for a part of final season, however his 62% hard-hit fee was nearly rated NC-17.
Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
Perhaps name this the re-boom? It’s straightforward to neglect simply how good McLain was as a prospect, and in his rookie season, he hit .290/.357/.507 for a 129 wRC+ and three.2 WAR in just half a season of video games. McLain seemed misplaced on the plate in 2025, however he was additionally coming off a critical labrum tear in his left shoulder that price him your complete 2024 season. It appears like he was mainly written off for a nasty yr, which I believe was an overreaction. Spring coaching means one thing, and he’s been probably the greatest hitters in baseball this spring. Throughout 15 video games and 49 plate appearances within the Cactus League as of Friday morning, McLain is slashing .545/.592/1.045 with six dwelling runs and a 311 wRC+. It might be malpractice to disregard that.
Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks
Now that the Diamondbacks have moved Lawlar to the outfield, I don’t assume he may have a substantial amount of bother getting enjoying time the identical means he did as an infielder. Let’s not neglect that Lawlar was an elite prospect at the same time as a number of accidents — together with to his shoulder, hamstring, and thumb, amongst different physique components — stored him off the sphere. The excellent news is that down the stretch final yr, he lastly gave the impression to be absolutely recovered from the ruptured thumb ligament that ruined his 2024 season. No, he didn’t have a formidable cup of espresso within the majors, however fortunately entrance workplaces now not put a lot inventory into 74 plate appearances. His potential continues to be there, and barring any extra accidents, he ought to get loads of alternatives to make good on his former phenom billing.
The Busts!
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Altuve has been capable of wring a number of offensive efficiency out of quite strange hit metrics, however that’s a harmful sport for a 36-year-old, and his plate self-discipline eroded a bit final season. ZiPS has typically been far more forgiving of Altuve than his Statcast xSLG has been, nevertheless it noticed rather a lot to dislike about his 2025 season. He already has confirmed some indicators of decline, and I believe this can be the yr we actually begin to see his homer rely begin to fade.
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
I really like me some Freddie Freeman, however something that may’t go on endlessly, received’t, and he’ll flip 37 earlier than the top of the season. Whereas his stats haven’t actually mirrored it but, his contact fee took an enormous dip in 2025, and a change in touch fee is a kind of Statcast indicators that’s predictive of massive draw back danger. I’m hoping this isn’t how issues play out, however I believe this is perhaps the primary yr in a very long time wherein Freeman received’t have a case for being the NL’s finest first baseman. Both means, I sit up for checking his identify on a Corridor of Fame poll someday within the 2030s.
Jacob Wilson, Athletics
I believe Wilson can be high quality in the long term, however I’m a bit frightened that 2026 will really feel like a little bit of a letdown. I believe he’s going to have a interval of adjustment; it’s confirmed very exhausting for presented contact hitters with out a lot energy to keep away from the temptation of leaning an excessive amount of into their contact means, and consequently, begin chasing an increasing number of pitches that they’ll solely hit weakly. Till Wilson exhibits he can keep away from this entice, I’m going to provide his statline a little bit of a facet eye.
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
Steer was a pleasant story, and unheralded prospect who had a very nice rookie season in 2023. However he hasn’t actually developed additional since then, and for a hitter who completely has to hit for energy to have worth, he simply doesn’t crush pitches with a lot authority. I believe by the top of the season, Steer can be checked out extra as a pleasant fourth outfielder and bat off the bench than a starter.
Miguel Andujar, San Diego Padres
This isn’t a projection piece, however so many crimson sirens go off with Andujar that I’ve to incorporate him right here. Whereas his .318/.352/.470 slash line seems a redemption story for a prospect who had a robust rookie season however by no means fairly panned out, his hit metrics had been extra like these of a punchless center infielder than a nook outfielder. Of all gamers with 300 plate appearances final yr, ZiPS had him with the largest distinction between his precise efficiency and Statcast metrics; the pc estimated that Andujar had the peripherals of a man hitting .263/.301/.385, a galaxy away from his precise line.