I’ve now spent almost 1 / 4 of a century working with baseball projections, and in that point, I’ve at all times been struck by the understanding with which so many individuals view them. Individuals are much more sure than they need to be that nice groups can be nice, star gamers can be stars, and so forth. Nonetheless, one of many issues that comes from working with projections for a giant chunk of your life is that you just develop a painful consciousness of how a lot of the long run can’t be recognized till it really occurs.
As in most seasons, we enter with out a common conception of which groups would be the greatest. We could fake everybody begins off with a clear slate, however completely no one expects the Rockies to be higher than the Dodgers. However even when that specific situation is extraordinarily unlikely, each one of many high groups has a situation by which issues collapse. These golf equipment have a vested curiosity in defending in opposition to that potential draw back, as a lot as potential, so I believed it might be attention-grabbing to take a look at the doomsday situation for among the greatest groups in baseball.
To get an concept, I did a full seasonal simulation of the ZiPS projected standings, and as an alternative of wanting on the standings total, I regarded on the backside 20% of outcomes to see what we might glean from the outcomes. In keeping with ZiPS, each crew besides the Dodgers misses the playoffs when it performs no higher than its Twentieth-percentile win whole.
Philadelphia Phillies: Rotation Depth
This virtually appears counterintuitive given simply how good the rotation projections are for the Phillies, however the projections aren’t keen about their depth right here. And what makes that particularly worrisome is that with a lot uncertainty across the well being of Zack Wheeler and the efficiency of Aaron Nola, Philadelphia might be going to wish that depth greater than it did final 12 months. This time round, the Phillies are lacking Ranger Suarez, who signed with the Purple Sox in the course of the offseason. Andrew Painter was wholesome in 2025, however one can not ignore that he was somewhat middling in opposition to Triple-A hitting. The outfield appears to be like like an issue, as nicely, nevertheless it typically has been, and ZiPS is a fan of Justin Crawford.
If Philadelphia provides one of many innings-eaters nonetheless accessible in free company, ZiPS sees the crew’s outlook enhance, way more than I anticipated. Simply having somebody like Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson, and even Patrick Corbin round did loads to alleviate the rotational draw back. It could come right down to which of those pitchers is open to a swing function or a minor league take care of an opt-out date. And sure, I do assume it feels bizarre to counsel Corbin as an improve for a crew in 2026.
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New York Mets: Proper Subject
The Mets actually don’t dominate in both the rotation or bullpen projections, however ZiPS is pretty assured that each of those models will maintain up over the course of the season. Regardless of a strong projection for Carson Benge in proper discipline, the vary of outcomes is sort of excessive, and within the simulations the place Benge struggles, ZiPS has hassle competently filling in proper discipline. Tyrone Taylor is an underwhelming possibility, and ZiPS thinks Brett Baty would have a tricky time defensively within the outfield. With no notably attention-grabbing outfielders accessible in free company, the very best answer may merely be ensuring Jacob Reimer will get a while within the outfield. New York’s roster simply isn’t actually set as much as get him time at third base, the place he in all probability is most useful. However he additionally represents essentially the most tantalizing 2026 upside of any participant the Mets have within the minors, in order that they must attempt to be open to selling him aggressively, and getting slightly bizarre with it, if want be.
New York Yankees: Accidents
The Yankees’ outcomes are bizarre, in that their unhealthy seasons had been largely ones by which Aaron Choose, for no matter purpose, ended up with fewer than 300 plate appearances, and solely often one thing else. Getting restricted innings from Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón was already baked into the cake, and ZiPS thinks there are sufficient fourth-starter sorts to patch up any rotation holes that may pop up. The issue is, simply how do you change Choose? I’m unsure there’s a situation the place the Yankees can do a lot to mitigate any danger there, for the straightforward actuality that in a tightly projected division, instantly dropping six wins is more likely to drop them out of the AL East divisional race. On the very least, the Yankees ought to maintain off on purchasing Spencer Jones for assist elsewhere, nevertheless it wouldn’t repair a Choose loss.
Baltimore Orioles: Rotation High quality
Baltimore has potential aces in each Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish, however that phrase potential is an disagreeable adjective. Including Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward actually stabilizes the offense, which was a priority final 12 months, however the rotation is a matter. The Orioles completed with a backside 5 rotation within the ZiPS simulations extra typically than all different AL East groups mixed. There’s nothing on the farm that helps this, and I believe that with the Orioles more and more pushing their chips in, they must be aggressive at taking the chance to loot struggling groups of their high pitching, even when the prospect hit could be large. I believe there are even eventualities, although not many, by which it’d make sense for the O’s to commerce both Adley Rutschman, assuming he has a bounce-back season, or Samuel Basallo.
Boston Purple Sox: First Base
The excellent news is that ZiPS sees the Purple Sox as essentially the most secure of AL contenders, with the bottom proportion of sub-.500 seasons of any AL crew. The rotation isn’t the very best in baseball, however it might be essentially the most bulletproof one, and that isn’t even relying on getting plenty of innings from pitchers like Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who could be Plan As in most rotations in baseball. Actually, when the Purple Sox had their worst efficiency, it was virtually completely the offense that fell quick, and never essentially from the place you may count on.
Most individuals have centered on third base due to the lack of Alex Bregman, however Caleb Durbin is definitely an honest possibility. Plus, if Durbin struggles, Marcelo Mayer might very possible present what the previous isn’t. The place there’s actual draw back danger is at first base. I favored the Willson Contreras acquisition, too, and he’s in all probability going to be no less than solidly common in 2026, however he’s additionally going to be 34 in Might. It’s an age the place you take a look at the lengthy left tails of the result distribution for non-elite first basemen, and there’s at all times an actual danger of a really sudden plummet off a cliff. Triston Casas hasn’t performed in a recreation since final Might — and gained’t even play in any spring coaching video games this 12 months — and he has an actual combined historical past.
What to do? That’s loads trickier. Boston clearly isn’t going to switch Contreras earlier than he has that draw back 12 months. However this crew ought to be prepared for that chance, and if the excess of pitching seems to be actual, the Sox could have a place of depth from which to commerce.
Chicago Cubs: Rotation High quality
The outlook improved with the addition of Edward Cabrera, however ZiPS nonetheless has the Cubs with the weakest rotation of the ten groups listed right here. Within the ZiPS simulations, the rotation was largely the supply of the Cubs’ worst seasons. There aren’t actually any thrilling starters left on the market in free company, however I believe I’d do what I believe the Cubs are already pondering of doing: giving Ben Brown’s upside as a beginning pitcher extra severe consideration. He allowed too many dwelling runs and had a excessive BABIP on a very good defensive crew, nevertheless it’s guys like that who have a tendency to come back out of nowhere shortly (see Corbin Burnes in 2019). Brown has swing-and-miss stuff, and I believe given the potential, I’d somewhat see him beginning at Triple-A than pitching in reduction within the majors.
Houston Astros: Outfield Corners
Not counting 2020, for apparent causes, the 686 runs the Astros scored in 2025 represented their fewest since 2014. A full, wholesome season of Yordan Alvarez could be extremely useful, however the crew’s additionally not more likely to wring one other 135 wRC+ out of Jeremy Peña. Not serving to issues is that Joey Loperfido and Cam Smith venture as one of many weakest nook outfield tandems within the majors in 2026. Smith stunned many, together with me, within the early months final 12 months, however an OPS that fell shy of .500 within the second half is extremely regarding. There’s an opportunity that the Astros get little from their outfield corners, which is an issue for a crew with a middling offense that simply misplaced ace Framber Valdez in free company. In some 30% of simulations, the Astros received a sub-90 wRC+ out of their nook outfielders, and in these runs, they’d a .475 successful proportion. If there’s a crew that ought to aggressively go after both Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu, it’s Houston.
Toronto Blue Jays: Rotation Depth
Even with the lack of Anthony Santander to shoulder surgical procedure, ZiPS nonetheless sees the Blue Jays’ rotation as their largest ache level. There are merely lots of query marks when you get previous Dylan Stop and Kevin Gausman, one thing I discussed a bit in Toronto’s ZiPS rundown in January. In lots of the sims, the crew received subsequent to nothing out of any of Cody Ponce, José Berríos, Shane Bieber, and Max Scherzer, whether or not due to damage, decline, or common efficiency points. If Sandy Alcantara appears to be like wherever close to his previous self with the Marlins within the early months, I believe the Jays must be one in all his suitors. On the very least, Alcantara would do nicely with an infield that has Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement.
Seattle Mariners: Outfield Corners
As with the Astros, ZiPS sees Seattle’s nook outfield spots as having essentially the most draw back. Not like the Astros, ZiPS doesn’t view it as really a doomsday situation. After the Purple Sox and Dodgers, ZiPS considers the Mariners to be the contender with the least draw back. Randy Arozarena’s projection distribution is fairly attention-grabbing, with the underside falling out of him when you get below the Fifteenth-percentile projection or so; whereas his Twentieth-percentile OPS+ is a non-disastrous 94, it drops to 70 for the Tenth-percentile degree. As for Victor Robles, he’s been far and wide in his profession, and the Plan Bs within the group are unimpressive. I believe Seattle’s sturdy sufficient that it doesn’t essentially have the identical should be aggressive as Houston does, however that is nonetheless a possible level of weak spot that would pose a problem.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Black Swans
It’s actually arduous to kill the Dodgers. I argued after the 2024-2025 offseason, a really busy one, that the Dodgers weren’t actually enhancing their common end result a lot as drastically elevating their flooring. I stand by it; they’ve added Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz whereas dropping no one who was essential to the 2025 crew. That doesn’t imply they’re going to be projected to win 105 video games or something, nevertheless it does imply that in most of their worst projected outcomes, they’re nonetheless a playoff contender. Their Tenth-percentile projection, for instance, is 86 wins. Their 2% probability of ending beneath .500 is the smallest proportion I’ve ever projected, a report that now goes again greater than 20 years. Doomsday for the Dodgers could require an precise doomsday situation like societal collapse, nuclear conflict, or a vacuum metastability occasion. Since I have no idea how one can forestall any of these, there’s nothing extra I can add.