Final week, the Reds despatched Hunter Greene for imaging on his throwing elbow. By no means signal for the no. 1 starter on a group that made the playoffs final season. In these conditions, we on the skin are normally conditioned to concern the worst, or a minimum of Tommy John surgical procedure, restoration from which — whereas all however routine as of late — takes greater than a 12 months.
Solely in that context might Tuesday’s information be taken as constructive: Greene could have surgical procedure to take away bone chips from his elbow. (Actually, as you learn this, he could have already undergone the process.) The restoration time is predicted to be on the order of three to 4 months, however shedding an ace till the commerce deadline is significantly better than shedding him till 2027.
It is a banner 12 months for bone chips and free our bodies. The Braves alone have two starters — Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach — on the IL after receiving related remedy. Really, since we’re speaking about bone chips, this looks like excuse to speak about Dazzy Vance.
When you’re a baseball historical past nut, you most likely already know the Dazzy Vance story, but it surely’s one among my favourite wild, old-timey baseball tales, and it bears repeating. Vance was a hard-throwing pitching prospect in his early 20s, however in 1915, he tweaked one thing in his arm and misplaced his fastball virtually in a single day. He obtained a cup of espresso within the majors, however by 1920, he was toiling anonymously for New Orleans of the Southern Affiliation.
One evening, Vance was taking part in poker and unintentionally banged his throwing arm on the desk. The ache went from continual to debilitating, and he noticed a health care provider the subsequent morning. The physician — the best way this story will get informed, it looks as if this man was some rando understanding of a basement, like Jeremy Piven in Warmth — minimize open Vance’s elbow, cleaned out all of the crap that had collected there after a decade of pitching within the Deadball period, and rode off into the mist, by no means to be heard from once more.
As soon as Vance healed, he was astonished to be taught that the ache that had ended his huge league profession had vanished. He had a monster season in 1921, obtained purchased by the Brookyln Robins, and led the Nationwide League in strikeouts in every of his first seven years again within the majors. Vance constructed a complete Corridor of Fame profession from nothing in his 30s, a novel accomplishment amongst gamers who didn’t begin their careers within the Negro Leagues, and pitched within the majors till he was 44.
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In most respects, baseball is best now than it was 100 years in the past, however I do remorse that we don’t have this type of Dudes Rock profession path anymore. If I ran HBO, the very first thing I’d do can be to order a status collection about early twentieth Century baseball, filled with flippantly fictionalized retellings of tales like Vance’s.
Anyway, again to Greene. Presumably he didn’t worsen his elbow harm by taking part in playing cards, however Vance’s story exhibits that it’s a lot simpler and extra comfy to throw 100 miles an hour when your elbow isn’t filled with gravel. When Greene returns to Cincinnati’s rotation, he’ll not solely be wholesome, however properly rested for the pennant race.
Greene’s destiny this season is fairly easy. The way more fascinating query, a minimum of to me, is what state the Reds will probably be in when he returns.
At this level within the season, each Central divisions look pretty just like me. There’s one group in every (the Tigers and Cubs) that made the playoffs in 2025 and clearly invested in going again. Perhaps to not the extent that a number of the huge coastal groups have, however each Detroit and Chicago retained their very own near-free agent starters slightly than buying and selling them, signed a minimum of one main free agent, and used their farm programs both to bolster the key league roster or commerce for such reinforcements.
The opposite groups in each divisions are, to a higher or lesser extent, simply alongside for the trip. In line with our playoff odds, all 5 NL Central groups’ projected win totals match neatly between third and fourth place within the NL East, or between first and second place within the NL West. It’s a division of the common.
I like what the Pirates have accomplished this winter lots, for example. I don’t suppose it’s sufficient to haul within the groups that completed forward of them final 12 months, even with that proficient pitching employees. The identical with the Reds; Eugenio Suárez is tons of enjoyable, and signing him is strictly the form of opportunistic transfer a group like Cincinnati must be making. They nonetheless most likely want one other outfielder, an exorcism for Matt McLain, and a brand new hitting coach for Ke’Bryan Hayes.
The plan appears to be: Put collectively an OK group and anticipate a playoff spot to fall into our lap.
To be clear, there are worse plans. For starters, simply from the viewpoint of a fan, an 83-win group is normally extra enjoyable to observe, day in and day trip, than a 63-win group. You present up on the park, you purchase your peanuts and Cracker Jack, and there’s about a fair probability you go dwelling blissful. I can consider worse fan experiences.
The opposite factor to recollect is the Reds really had a playoff spot fall into their laps simply final season.
This was one among my pet storylines within the second half final 12 months; the Mets had the final NL Wild Card spot all however sewn up in mid-August, after which they biffed it. Opposite to their neighbors in Cleveland, who scythed down one and all en path to a surprising September comeback, the Reds have been precisely at .500 within the final two months of the season, 14-11 in September with a +2 run differential, and 3-3 within the final week of the season.
However 14-11 in September, whereas hardly harking back to the 1995 Mariners, was ok to select up a sport on the Giants, a sport and a half on the Diamondbacks, and 4 video games on the Mets. “I don’t must outrun the bear…” says the proverb. So it proved in final 12 months’s NL Wild Card hunt.
That might occur once more, although I believe this 12 months’s Wild Card race will probably be a bit more durable. Perhaps the Phillies, Brewers, and Padres take a step again, however all of these groups ought to nonetheless be good. The Pirates and Marlins are displaying glints of competitiveness, the Giants are a minimum of speaking an enormous sport, and the Mets and Braves can’t each be as hapless as they have been final 12 months. They only can’t. I believe there will probably be greater than 5 good groups within the NL this 12 months, even when I don’t know which 5 to select.
So if the Reds end 83-79 once more, they’ll most likely find yourself additional down within the standings than they have been final season.
Which means the Reds are going to wish each win — each out — they’ll squeeze out of this roster in the event that they’re going to get again to the playoffs. Shedding one among their greatest gamers for a minimum of half the season is just not going to assist; the precise injury is difficult to foretell, however three or 4 months of Hunter Greene most likely involves someplace between two and three wins above alternative.
Alternatively, Cincinnati’s roster… I don’t suppose it’s really going to harm that a lot.
I fear that is going to sound somewhat nuts, given the shortage of high quality beginning pitching throughout the league, however right here it goes: The Reds can afford to reside with out Greene for some time. They’ve the depth.
Even after shedding two first rate beginning pitchers — Nick Martinez and Zack Littell — in free company, the Reds have 5 guys I’d be ok with having on the mound. I’d argue that Andrew Abbott, not Greene, is definitely Cincinnati’s high starter. Behind him, they’ve obtained Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and former top-10 draft picks Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns.
Lowder and Burns are the important thing right here, as a result of each of them have encountered some bumps of their transient careers. Lowder regarded dominant in a six-start audition in 2024, then obtained harm in 2025 and barely pitched in any respect. Burns allowed seven runs whereas recording only one out in his second profession outing, and thru his first six main league begins, his profession ERA was 6.26. Two begins after that, he went on the IL with a minor arm harm.
However Burns dominated out of the bullpen after his return, and at any charge, I’ve already nailed my colours to this specific mast: I’m a large Burns fan and can go down with the ship if I find yourself being unsuitable.
He and Lowder have earned an prolonged look out of the key league rotation. If there was any doubt as to whether or not they’d get it, Greene’s harm erased it for good.
Nothing is definite on the planet of pitching prospects, however the Reds are in a put up-or-shut up second with their two high younger arms. In the event that they’re going to outlive with out Greene, they want Lowder and Burns to be good. However that was most likely true even when Greene had stayed wholesome. The Reds spent back-to-back top-10 picks on two dominant faculty arms; if each of those guys develop into busts, the Reds are screwed anyway.
The belief that the Reds can keep afloat till Greene’s return does require fairly a bit of religion. They’d some security margin with this rotation earlier than; not. And the chance of Lodolo getting harm once more, or Burns shedding his command, or Singer getting homered to demise, is ever-present. The following Jenga tile to expertise forearm discomfort may ship the entire tower crashing down.
The Reds are in a precarious place now, however typically, it’s a must to gamble. Simply ask Dazzy Vance.