That is Ryan Blake’s first piece as a contributor for FanGraphs. He’s a former newspaper reporter within the Inland Northwest and a present author for Lookout Touchdown, the place his work on the batter’s eye at T-Cellular Park was nominated for a 2026 SABR Analytics Convention Analysis Award.
A bottom-ranked pitching workers bought a bit deeper this weekend.
Zack Littell and the Nationals have agreed on a one-year contract, as a number of retailers reported Sunday. The value tag is presently unknown, although the deal features a mutual possibility for 2027. Littell, 30, ranked next-to-last on our High 50 Free Brokers checklist this offseason. Because it occurs, he’s additionally next-to-last to signal (solely Lucas Giolito stays out there).
Littell threw a profession excessive 186.2 innings in 2025 throughout 32 begins for the Rays and Reds. Solely 10 pitchers threw extra innings final yr. His 3.81 ERA was above common amongst certified starters, and his 4.2% stroll charge was one of the best within the majors. Alternatively, his 4.88 FIP, 17.1% strikeout charge, and 1.74 HR/9 every ranked within the backside 5. It was a mixture of strengths and weaknesses that, taken collectively, made him the 88th-most useful beginning pitcher by WAR — helpful depth for many organizations.
Littell’s worth comes from his reliability. He posted a median Recreation Rating of 51 every of the final two seasons (50 is common). Recreation Rating isn’t an ideal metric, however the model developed by Tom Tango is predicated in DIPS idea, with some measured assumptions for the worth of hits and runs. It’s a fast approximation for a way a pitcher contributed to their crew’s possibilities of successful, together with (crucially) how deep they went within the recreation. Not solely is Littell’s common Recreation Rating precisely common, his particular person Recreation Scores are clustered tightly round that mark. In actual fact, I discovered solely 4 pitchers with a narrower vary of Recreation Scores. He’s the final word low ceiling/excessive ground starter who’s simply as unlikely to implode as he’s to dominate. He provides his crew an opportunity to win each evening, whereas hardly ever guaranteeing it.
One purpose Littell can get precisely common outings from a bottom-ranked FIP is his in-game longevity. He threw 5 innings in 51 of his 61 begins the final two seasons. It’s a easy matter of effectivity. About three-quarters of Littell’s pitches the final two years have been over the guts and shadow areas of the plate, making him among the many most aggressive starters within the majors. Consequently, he averaged simply 3.73 pitches per at-bat from 2024 to 2025. He’s a primary instance of the “simply throw the ball close to the zone and it’ll most likely be OK” idea of pitching.
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Littell kilos the zone with a recent arsenal: two forms of fastballs, two forms of sliders, and a break up for good measure. The fastballs sit at simply 92 mph, with the four-seamer extra prone to seem in opposition to lefties and the sinker in opposition to righties. The slider neither spins nor breaks, and admittedly appears to hold (it bought the second-fewest whiffs amongst sliders final yr), whereas the sweeper is a giant, sluggish, looping pitch that he’s extra reluctant to throw. Littell’s most spectacular providing is the splitter, which will get wonderful vertical depth to encourage a little bit of chase on the uncommon event he leaves the zone. The result’s a broad, numerous arsenal that may idiot batters lengthy sufficient for him to outlive three turns by means of the order, even when it isn’t all the time fairly:
The Nationals are Littell’s ninth skilled group. He was drafted out of highschool by the Mariners within the eleventh spherical in 2013. He was traded to the Yankees in 2017 after which flipped to the Twins, debuting primarily as a reliever with Minnesota in 2018. He bounced between bullpens for components of the subsequent 5 seasons, not fairly excelling, not fairly taking part in his manner out of a profession.
The Rays claimed him off waivers in Might 2023, and he was transformed to a starter quickly after. The Rays being the Rays, it was a fast success. He ditched the fastball-slider combo (which was the type on the time) for the broader arsenal he sports activities as we speak. He helped prop up the backend of the Rays rotation by means of July 2025, when he was dealt to the playoff-bound Reds on the commerce deadline. Littell continued his dependable, if unspectacular, efficiency with Cincinnati, although he proved no match for the Dodgers in his Wild Card begin, taking the Reds’ last lack of the season.
Now Littell is in Washington (pending a bodily, in fact). After dealing MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers earlier within the offseason, the Nationals rotation is projected twenty ninth by WAR for 2026. Once more, Littell is a strong, main league-caliber pitcher, however he doesn’t transfer the needle a lot, scooting them ahead just a few tenths of a win. And that’s assuming they plan to make use of him as a starter, as they discover themselves with one thing of a log jam of their rotation.
Veterans Miles Mikolas and Foster Griffin signed main league offers earlier within the offseason. Former prime prospects Cade Cavalli and Josiah Grey at the moment are recovered from Tommy John surgical procedure, although there’s some query about Grey’s availability for Opening Day. Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker each made about 30 begins in every of the final two seasons, although each hovered round substitute stage in 2025 and will have misplaced a little bit of favor. Lastly, Brad Lord completed 2025 as a starter after bouncing between the rotation and bullpen all through the season.
So whereas there isn’t a lot high quality within the Nationals rotation, there are nonetheless a number of traditional depth choices, making Littell really feel a bit redundant. Maybe they’ll make room, or maybe he’ll return to the bullpen. On a short-term deal at age 30, his main function seems to be “commerce fodder,” in no matter type which will take.