Jarren Duran, Jorge Polanco, Aaron Choose and Month-to-Month Consistency

As with lots of my articles, Wednesday’s piece on Jarren Duran had its genesis in considered one of my weekly chats, again in early January. With the Crimson Sox coping with a crowded outfield, a reader proposed a commerce return for Duran, and within the context of sidestepping the specifics of the deal, I supplied a somewhat curt dismissal of Duran as having had “a reasonably meh age-28 season” in 2025. After I acquired pushback for that little bit of reflexive hyperbole — which stood in distinction to the extra measured solutions I typically give at a notoriously slower tempo — I supplied a desk of his month-to-month batting splits, and somewhat than let a debate hijack the chat, I squirreled away the thought of writing extra in depth about Duran at a later date.

That date arrived earlier this week, as I caught up with a few of the outfielder’s latest feedback and different information out of Crimson Sox camp whereas diving into his 2025 season. By way of worth, Duran’s fall-off from a 6.8-WAR 2024 season to a 3.9-WAR ’25 marketing campaign produced the second-largest drop in WAR amongst gamers with at the very least 600 plate appearances in each seasons. Duran was nonetheless fairly priceless — tied for sixteenth amongst AL place gamers in WAR — however not distinctive. “Fairly meh” was clearly an overstatement, however as I famous within the chat, Duran’s above-average offensive manufacturing (a 111 wRC+) was pushed by one distinctive month that papered over three subpar ones and two others kind of according to his seasonal numbers:

Duran’s July stands proud like a sore thumb; he didn’t have a slugging share inside 250 factors of it, or a wRC+ inside 80 factors of it, in any of the opposite 5 months. Take his midsummer surge — which included 35 whole bases in 35 at-bats towards the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals — out of the equation and Duran hit simply .247/.320/.405 (98 wRC+) within the different 5 months.

Small samples being what they’re, these items occur on a regular basis in baseball, and if we care to, we will dig by means of the information to assist illuminate why, realizing that random distribution, good or unhealthy luck on batted balls, extremes within the caliber of opponents confronted, and arbitrary endpoints all assist to clarify month-to-month variance. I used to be a lot much less within the whys of Duran’s large July than within the why nots of his entire season when in comparison with 2024, however even after addressing these at size within the article, the sample of his manufacturing — one large month and 5 not-so-big ones — caught with me. How usually does one thing like this occur?

Had I been in a position to formulate a concise definition of what I sought, I may have requested a colleague with database abilities to spit out a solution in a matter of some minutes. However with solely a obscure concept, and within the curiosity of studying by doing, I spent a number of hours in Excel and with our splits leaderboards. To maintain issues comparatively easy, I maintained deal with total manufacturing (wRC+) as an alternative of a slash stat, similar to slugging share, or a Statcast-based anticipated stat, similar to xSLG. I settled upon grabbing each hitter-month with at the very least 75 plate appearances, lumping collectively March and April as we typically do inside our leaderboards. That involves about 200 hitters monthly. I then selected to look at solely these gamers who reached 75 plate appearances in all six months, which left me with 80 hitters out of the 177 who totaled at the very least 450 plate appearances (75 x 6).

Right here I ought to level out that that is taking an already flattened measure — wRC+ doesn’t inform us how a participant reached a given stage of manufacturing, whether or not it was because of an excessive BABIP or an atypical energy burst (or outage) or a sudden incapability to hit water whereas falling out of a ship — and completely steamrolling it. Whereas 75 plate appearances was the cutoff, most months featured a number of gamers with at the very least 120, with Ian Happ maxing out at a significant league-high 151 in March and April because of the Cubs’ early begin within the Tokyo Collection towards the Dodgers. The Brewers’ William Contreras in some way reached 140 plate appearances in August, the best whole for any month after April. Duran recorded 149 plate appearances in March/April, rating second to Happ, and he did so with out the good thing about a visit to Japan as a result of the Crimson Sox had been the one workforce to play 32 video games earlier than Could 1.

So sure, I’m effectively conscious that I’m evaluating months the place one pattern may be twice as massive as one other, however once more, this wasn’t alleged to be rocket surgical procedure, only a enjoyable little spreadsheet stuffed with splits. It’s a great month for exploring such issues even once they don’t imply a lot within the grand scheme.

From there, I attempted a number of concepts on for measurement. The obvious one was to calculate the biggest gaps between hitters’ highest month-to-month wRC+ and their season marks:

That will get to the center of the matter fairly effectively: gamers who had one large month far above their total baseline. Duran’s proper there with the fourth-highest hole on a listing topped by Polanco, whom chances are you’ll recall excelling whereas limiting himself to batting solely left-handed as a consequence of a late-March indirect pressure. He slashed .384/.418/.808 with 9 homers in simply 80 plate appearances (75 as a lefty) in that season-opening stretch.

What concerning the distinction between a participant’s finest month and his second-best month? I simply realized find out how to discover this in Excel! Do you know there are features referred to as LARGE and SMALL? I used to be yesterday years previous once I found that “=LARGE(Table1[@[April]:[Sept]],2)” would inform me a participant’s second-highest month-to-month wRC+. This amused me to an unreasonable diploma, as a result of it’s not daily I be taught a brand new spreadsheet trick.

Once more, Duran is close to the highest, with two of the three names above him within the first desk additionally above him within the second. There’s a niche between these 4 and the following cluster, and a complete lot of crossover between the lists additional down; you’ll be able to inform just by how few of the gamers in that desk are in daring, acknowledged upon first point out by our Participant Linker.

Now, how concerning the widest vary between finest and worst months?

Polanco adopted that April feast with a Could famine (.139/.205/.208 in 78 PA) whereas nonetheless avoiding most lefties. I prolonged that desk previous the same old high 20 to suit Duran; the hole between his red-hot July and his mediocre Could put him in a digital tie for twenty third. (There are decimals hooked up to those numbers if you export them into spreadsheets, however let’s not break up hairs.)

Talking of famines, word the presence of Harris, whose 11 wRC+ in June (.148/.165/.261 in 92 PA) was the worst month for any participant who reached the 75-plate look threshold in all six months. He lastly heated up within the second half, however issues had been uncharacteristically grim for awhile. If you happen to’re questioning about who had the worst months on the 75-plate look cutoff, Crimson Sox infielder Kristian Campbell produced a -6 (.134/.184/.171 in 87 PA in Could) and Marlins outfielder Dane Myers a -4 (.153/.173/.194 in 75 PA in July), which, yikes; each had their enjoying time curtailed, with Campbell quickly demoted to Triple-A for the stability of the season. Amongst gamers who reached the 450-plate look threshold, the Rockies’ Brenton Doyle had a 1 wRC+ in June and a 5 wRC+ in September, although he missed the 75-plate look cutoff for July, and so he didn’t qualify for additional research right here. Even the Rockies can take solely a lot.

In the meantime, take a look at Soto and Raleigh, MVP-caliber studs who even of their worst months had been nonetheless above-average hitters. The identical is true for AL MVP Aaron Choose, and as a matter of truth, simply 11 hitters who met the 75-plate look threshold in all six months had a wRC+ of at the very least 100 of their worst month:

It’s completely outstanding how Choose towers over the sector; his worst month — wherein the bum hit a pedestrian .253/.388/.579 — was 30 factors of wRC+ higher than anyone else’s worst month, and better than the season wRC+ marks of all however 4 batting title qualifiers (Ohtani, Raleigh, Soto, and George Springer). Duran didn’t make the reduce for this desk, nevertheless it’s price noting that his 87 wRC+ from Should put him in a digital tie for the Nineteenth-best worst month — in different phrases, a reasonably respectable flooring.

I crunched the numbers in a number of different methods. Need to know which hitters got here again to earth the toughest after improbable begins? Right here’s a desk of the biggest gaps between April wRC+ and season marks at each extremes, together with the gamers who dug themselves out of early holes:

There’s Polanco once more, and Choose wrapping up a fully monster 365-day stretch. On the different finish of the spectrum, bear in mind all that fretting about Soto’s sluggish begin in Queens? It seems the dude didn’t overlook find out how to hit, and completed with a wRC+ inside two factors of his profession mark. Adell’s presence caught my eye right here; he appeared able to be written off for good after a dreadful April, however half a decade after being a top-10 prospect, he lastly turned in a cromulent main league season.

Now for the flip aspect of that desk, displaying the hitters whose remaining month produced comparable extremes:

Arraez, Bell, and Betts nosed themselves over the 100 wRC+ line because of scorching Septembers. Olson capped a pleasant bounce-back 12 months after a relatively subpar 2024. Naylor’s late surge carried over into a star flip within the postseason. And right here now we have much more Polanco, who ended up with a powerful set of bookends to his season. Choose’s turning up once more is wild, as effectively. He bracketed his season with a 251 wRC+ in March/April and a 241 wRC+ in September; he additionally hit for a 229 wRC+ in Could, 154 in June (famous above), 173 in July, and 157 in August, in case you had been questioning.

One other factor we will do with this spreadsheet is work out probably the most and least constant hitters from month to month based mostly upon the usual deviations of their wRC+. First, those with the bottom customary deviations throughout the six-month pattern, probably the most constant total:

Not surprisingly, a whole lot of these gamers are inside an infielder’s underhand flip of league common, which is just so attention-grabbing. Extra spectacular are the celebs who had been notably constant from month to month. In an effort to tease that out, right here’s a second model of the checklist, restricted to hitters with a season wRC+ of 120 or greater:

That’s fairly cool, particularly the hitters who didn’t have a single month beneath 100. I’m repeating info from the Greatest Worst Month desk, however who would have anticipated Suzuki and Grisham to share such a distinction with the likes of Guerrero, Witt, and Ohtani? Who would have even seen, if not for this little train?

On the opposite aspect of the ledger, listed below are the hitters with probably the most risky performances from month to month. You received’t be stunned by who tops the checklist:

It’s humorous to see Polanco, whom the Mets signed to play first base, in a desk simply above Alonso, the person he’s charged with changing — a tough reminder that Polar Bear Pete went ice chilly for a few months even in the summertime, although other than his aforementioned 213 wRC+ in March/April, his month-to-month performances had been utterly out of sync with these of the Mets, who had been above .500 in his subpar months and beneath .500 in his good ones. Once more, I prolonged the desk to incorporate Duran, whose customary deviation in wRC+ was nonetheless nearer to touchdown him on the primary “Regular Eddie” checklist — 14 factors greater than J-Rod — than to topping this one.

There’s much more to investigate almost about any of those gamers’ seasons than simply wRC+, myriad the explanation why they may have gone on scorching streaks or slumps. This train did reply my query almost about Duran — sure, having only one excellent month as he did was uncommon, and the hole between that month and the remainder of his line somewhat excessive, however even at his worst he wasn’t actually horrible — and it helped me respect the ups and downs of so many different gamers’ seasons, too.