LAWRENCE, Kansas — When Large 12 schedule-makers unveiled the slate in September, Kelvin Sampson’s eyes gravitated towards the trial by hearth that Houston simply exited: Feb. 16 at No. 4 Iowa State, Feb. 21 vs. No. 2 Arizona and Feb. 23 at No. 14 Kansas.
“Spurs on Monday, Oklahoma Metropolis on Saturday, flip round and play Marcus Sasser’s [Detroit] Pistons,” Sampson says with a twinkle in his eye to maybe cover the frustration in his soul.
Houston had Iowa State useless to rights within the second half earlier than the Cyclones’ function gamers like Nate Heise and Jamarion Batemon hit some gigantic treys to rally Iowa State to a 70-67 victory. 5 days later, Houston had Arizona proper in its crosshairs earlier than tapering off down the stretch to one of many Nationwide Championship frontrunners. Some 48 hours after that, Houston needed to stroll into Allen Fieldhouse to play Kansas. The Jayhawks, recent off a irritating residence loss to Cincinnati, used an 11-0 burst on the finish of the primary half and a 16-3 surge early within the second half to run away with a 69-56 win.
Houston received Hilton Magic’d, Zona’d and Large Monday’d in a week-long stretch. For the primary time since 2017, Houston has misplaced three video games in a row, and but, Sampson walked into Monday’s postgame press convention itching to evangelise positivity.
“We’re not gonna go soar off with the bridge ‘trigger we misplaced this sport,” Sampson says. “I knew what we had been strolling into, however I used to be actually, actually pleased with our guys.”
Possibly that is a public entrance — Sampson is rarely cool with Ls — however there’s some fact laced into the sermon. There may be such a factor as schedule losses in hoops, and catching an irritated Kansas on Large Monday (a spot that Invoice Self entered a mind-boggling 40-0) appears like a schedule loss if there ever was one.
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Houston’s beginning backcourt of Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Kingston Flemings mixed for 28 factors on 35 photographs, by far the worst efficiency of the season for the perfect trio of guards that you could find in faculty basketball. Sampson did notice that Sharp was nicked up after a foul fall in opposition to Arizona, and Uzan is preventing an ankle damage.
“I took Milos and Emanuel out for a motive; that they had nothing, they had been useless,” Sampson stated. “Sharp guarded his butt off. I feel he performed 35 minutes on Saturday. Milos performed 38 minutes [against Arizona]. That was why I took all of them out with eight minutes to go. They only had no legs. However that is the schedule we needed to play.”
The three-game slide all however knocks Houston out of the Large 12 Championship chase. The Cougars path Arizona by two video games within the loss column with three to play. The Cougars have a 0.1% probability of incomes the No. 1 seed within the Large 12 Event, per CBB Analytics.
However is it time for panic about Houston’s hopes in March? As standard, it is sophisticated.
Potential sizzling spots rising
Simply 27% of Houston’s offensive photographs come on the rim. This Cougars group is extra jump-shot reliant than every other high-major group in faculty basketball, so once you play a 3rd sport in eight days, and the legs are gone, nights like Monday can emerge.
Seventeen of Houston’s 66 (26%) photographs in opposition to Kansas got here on the rim. The Cougars took 39 jumpers and shot simply 23% on ’em, the second-worst displaying this yr in accordance with Synergy.
Sampson pointed to useless legs, and the attention take a look at and information unequivocally again up these claims. Houston missed brief on a ton of jumpers.
You may win with a jump-shot heavy weight loss plan like this once you offensive rebound at a really excessive degree. Houston preaches offensive rebounding in addition to anyone within the nation, and massive man JoJo Tugler owns the No. 1 offensive rebounding charge in Large 12 play. Tugler is the reigning Defensive Participant of the Yr. He is revered for his protection, however his constant first-half foul hassle is hurting Houston’s offense in an actual manner. The Cougars want his offensive rebounding within the worst manner, serving as a “get out of jail free” card when jumpers are developing brief.
Tugler sat out the ultimate 10 minutes of the primary half with two fouls. At that time, Houston had 5 offensive rebounds. For the ultimate 10 minutes, Houston corralled only one offensive rebound.
- Houston’s offensive rebounding proportion when Tugler is on the ground, per hoop-explorer: 23.6% (No. 3 in America)
- Houston’s offensive rebounding proportion when Tugler is off the ground, per hoop-explorer: 18.8% (No. 83 in America)
“JoJo is loads like these previous gunslingers like Daryle Lamonica, Kenny Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Sonny Jurgensen, Billy Kilmer or Johnny Unitas,” Sampson says. “Dudes received two little bars in entrance of their face. They go play and throw three or 4 interceptions and 6 or seven touchdowns. However if you happen to attempt to remove their interceptions and make them be extra pinpoint or not almost as aggressive, they’re in all probability not gonna throw landing passes, both. It is in all probability a foul analogy. However it’s laborious to get JoJo to not play aggressive. Quite a lot of his fouls are in all probability pointless. Consider it or not, since this freshman yr, he is gotten loads higher.”
Sampson is correct. Tugler is “solely” averaging 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes this season. That is the perfect mark of his profession. However the fixed foul hassle for Houston’s greatest defender and greatest offensive rebounder has change into a burr in Sampson’s saddle.
“We’re a a lot, significantly better group, and he is on the ground,” Sampson stated. “Once you return and have a look at the sport once we beat Duke [in the 2025 Final Four], he was the perfect participant on the ground final 5 minutes. He is actually necessary to us.”
The shot weight loss plan for Houston just isn’t altering, largely due to the personnel. Houston doesn’t have a backdown menace who can hunt mismatches within the mid-post space. The Cougars have been one of many worst post-up offenses in faculty basketball this season, so Sampson has largely ditched it from Houston’s offensive arsenal.
This group goes to take a ton of jumpers from right here on out. A jumper from Sharp, Uzan or Flemings is a greater shot than a Tugler post-up at this level, however it makes the offensive rebounding and Tugler’s availability even that rather more important down the house stretch.
Cause for optimism
There are 4 fairly easy causes to be bullish on Houston in March:
- Sampson is the coach.
- This backcourt is unbelievable. Flemings is a lottery decide, and each Sharp and Uzan are killer two-way veterans.
- Houston performs ridiculously laborious.
- Finest halfcourt offense of the Sampson period.
Sufficient stated.
“I feel these three video games, despite the fact that we’re upset we misplaced them, it is not the top of the world,” Sampson stated. “I do not know if anyone needed to play three straight video games like this. We simply ran out of steam.”
It is honest to query if Houston has accrued sufficient depth to win the Nationwide Championship. It is honest to marvel if this group simply wants yet one more changeup offensively to recover from the hump on the nights when the jumpers aren’t dropping.
However a Last 4?
Yeah, it is nonetheless firmly in play.