Miami (Ohio) continued its storybook trip on Tuesday evening, because the No. 21 RedHawks improved to 28-0 with a 74-64 win at Jap Michigan. The win introduced Miami inside three victories of changing into the primary Division I males’s faculty basketball crew to complete the common season undefeated since Gonzaga went 24-0 through the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season.
In contrast, Miami’s regular-season slate options 31 video games. Whereas the RedHawks’ schedule has been one of many best in faculty basketball, beginning 28-0 is nonetheless a outstanding achievement. It is also a mirrored image of this system’s regular rise below fourth-year coach Travis Steele.
After ending 12-20 and 6-12 within the MAC in 2022-23 throughout Steele’s first season, the RedHawks have steadily improved in each season since. A 12 months in the past, they completed 25-9 and 14-4 within the MAC, struggling a devastating loss to Akron within the MAC Event title recreation. Steele managed to retain a big chunk of final season’s roster, which makes Miami a rarity within the mid-major ranks.
With continuity and expertise in place, the RedHawks have navigated each problem to date. Nonetheless, attributable to their poor schedule power — the RedHawks have not even performed a Quad 1 recreation — their standing within the NCAA Event subject might be up for debate in the event that they fail to win the MAC Event.
Although Miami has performed zero Quad 1 video games and is simply 1-0 in Quad 2, there’s a metric on official NCAA crew sheets that acknowledges the brilliance of its undefeated begin.
It is referred to as Wins In opposition to Bubble (WAB), and it calculates how the common bubble crew would carry out towards your schedule. With a WAB rating of two.16 as of Feb. 22, the RedHawks rank thirty fifth in WAB and are acknowledged for having over two extra victories than the common bubble crew would towards their slate.
Up subsequent for Miami
The remaining schedule for Miami which is attempting to turn out to be the primary crew since Indiana achieved the feat within the 1975-76 season.
| Friday | at Western Michigan | 6 p.m. CBS Sports activities Community |
| Tuesday | vs. Toledo | 7 p.m. ESPN+ |
| March 6 | at Ohio | 7 p.m. CBS Sports activities Community |
| March 12-14 | MAC Event (Cleveland) | TBD |
If Miami does not win the MAC Event and wishes an at-large ticket to the Huge Dance, WAB might be one in all its greatest associates. Its present thirty fifth rating is inside at-large territory. The place it will get difficult is that any loss towards MAC opposition carries a big WAB penalty.
Listed here are all of the Choice Sunday eventualities for Miami because it heads down this the stretch with its first NCAA Event look since 2007 in sight.
NCAA Event choice eventualities for Miami
The straightforward state of affairs (win MAC Event)
Report: Between 31-3 and 34-0
Confidence degree: It is a social gathering
Probably WAB vary: Would not matter
Bust out the balloons and rent a caterer for the watch social gathering. Miami can go 3-0 to shut the common season, 0-0 or one thing in between. It does not matter, as long as the RedHawks are chopping down the nets inside Cleveland’s Rocket Area on the finish of the MAC Event on March 14.
Profitable the MAC Event is the one 100% assured path to the Huge Dance, and it will not be straightforward. The MAC is not one of many handful of conferences now providing computerized byes to the semifinals for its high two seeds. The RedHawks should win three video games in three days towards a subject consisting solely of the league’s high eight groups.
Lots of the gamers on this Miami crew had been a part of a gutting 76-74 loss to Akron in final 12 months’s MAC Event title recreation wherein the Zips rallied late to stun the RedHawks. That ought to solely present extra motivation as Miami seeks its first convention match title since 2007.
The MAC Insanity state of affairs
Choice Sunday file: 31-1, 32-1 or 33-1
Confidence degree: Feeling optimistic
Probably WAB vary: 37-43
Miami may nonetheless really feel moderately hopeful about making the Huge Dance if it entered the MAC Event 31-0 after which dropped a recreation. Whereas on some degree it may matter who the loss got here towards, the RedHawks would nonetheless enter Choice Sunday with a WAB rating within the at-large realm, no matter who was accountable for handing them their first defeat.
A loss on a impartial flooring within the MAC Event would probably include a WAB price of round 0.80. If Miami misplaced 0.80 in WAB at this time, it might drop the RedHawks from the low-to-mid 30s within the metric to the low 40s.
The crew with the very best WAB rating disregarded of final 12 months’s subject was West Virginia, which arrived at Choice Sunday at No. 43 within the WAB. The 2025 choice course of was the primary to make the most of WAB, so there is not a trove of previous precedents to depend on. However WVU’s exclusion final 12 months units a benchmark for Miami to purpose for: do not fall to No. 43.
Ending the common season undefeated after which shedding within the MAC Event would probably be ok to maintain the RedHawks round or simply under that determine, which might be sufficient for them to enter Choice Sunday with some cautious optimism.
Double-defeat state of affairs
Choice Sunday file: 30-2, 31-2 or 32-2
Confidence degree: Feeling nervous
Probably WAB vary: 43-52
The double-defeat state of affairs entails Miami shedding one regular-season recreation, along with a MAC Event recreation.
This might not be advisable, as it might probably result in Miami’s Choice Sunday WAB rating touchdown within the mid-40s, at greatest. Nonetheless, on this state of affairs, the opponent for the convention match loss may make a distinction. If it is a high-end Quad 2 loss towards Akron within the title recreation, then it might be less expensive.
The crew with the worst WAB rating chosen to final 12 months’s subject was Xavier, which was among the many Final 4 In at No. 49 in WAB. Nonetheless, the Musketeers counterbalanced their lagging resume metrics with a predictive metrics profile hovering round fortieth nationally.
Miami College doesn’t have good predictive metrics to fall again upon. So slipping out of the low-to-mid 40s in WAB would make issues dicey. If Miami loses twice, a slip of that magnitude is probably going, and it might make Choice Sunday uncomfortable.
Three-loss state of affairs
Choice Sunday file: 29-3, 30-3, 31-3
Confidence degree: Higher brace for disappointment
Probably WAB vary: 50-60
A 1-2 end to the common season, mixed with a loss within the MAC Event, would decimate Miami’s at-large probabilities. On this state of affairs, the very best conceivable final result can be that the RedHawks lose within the MAC Event title recreation towards Akron in a heartbreaking approach that tugs on the heartstrings of committee members. However it might be a troublesome case to make.
With three losses on its ledger, Miami would virtually definitely lag behind different bubble groups in resume metrics. Bear in mind, it is not nearly win-loss file. It is concerning the totality of your resume. WAB does job of quantifying that, and it would not be on Miami’s facet if the RedHawks misplaced thrice.