We all know the steps to the annual spring dance by now: Pitcher seems for spring coaching, pitcher suffers minor harm or discomfort throughout follow, America holds its collective breath and hopes that barking elbow will simply resolve itself.
Sadly, that hope is all too not often vindicated, as imaging shortly confirms mentioned pitcher has torn a vital little bit of connective tissue.
The Twins speed-ran this dance this week with their no. 1 starter, Pablo López. The veteran right-hander lower quick a bullpen session on Monday after feeling soreness in his elbow. Minnesota GM Jeremy Zoll introduced Tuesday that López had torn an elbow ligament and that season-ending surgical procedure was “very a lot on the desk.”
The primary downstream impact of López’s harm is that, barring one thing ludicrous, like they loaded him into the MRI tube upside-down, we’re not going to see him pitching for Venezuela on the World Baseball Traditional subsequent month. Venezuela goes to be among the many favorites, and has loads of main league-quality pitchers to select from: Ranger Suárez and Eduardo Rodriguez are already on the roster, for instance.
However Venezuela’s now beginning somebody like Keider Montero or Antonio Senzatela within the knockout spherical. Evaluate that to the U.S., which may select from amongst Joe Ryan, Matthew Boyd, or Nolan McLean to be its fourth starter.
And in case you suppose Venezuela’s going to overlook López, think about how a lot his absence goes to have an effect on the Twins.
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Since becoming a member of Minnesota in 2023, he leads all Twins gamers, no matter place, with 9.6 WAR. That is regardless of having been restricted to only 14 begins in 2025 by a wide range of accidents: a hamstring pressure, a shoulder pressure, and at last a forearm pressure. The latter is certainly one of baseball’s extra ominous illnesses; it could possibly be nothing, nevertheless it’s additionally usually a precursor to a torn UCL.
However, López was terrific when wholesome in 2025, posting a 2.74 ERA and 1.8 WAR in lower than half a season’s value of labor. Few groups might afford to lose such a pitcher.
The Twins wanted information like this like they wanted a kick within the tooth. Making an attempt to think about a approach to describe what morale have to be like in Twins Nation proper now, I considered Anglo-Irish soccer supervisor Mick McCarthy. In 2023, McCarthy was teaching Blackpool within the English second tier — and never effectively, I ought to add. He lasted lower than three months within the job, and Blackpool completed twenty third out of 24 and acquired relegated.
I carry this up as a result of McCarthy had an change in a press convention that produced a meme related to the present scenario with the Twins. A reporter requested: “By way of outcomes, Mick, one win in 17… It may’t go on like this, can it?”
McCarthy smirked wryly and answered: “It may.”
In 2023, the Twins lastly snapped their historic playoff shedding streak, 18 video games over 19 years, and constructing towards one thing constructive. (López turned the primary Twins pitcher since Johan Santana — who’s Workforce Venezuela’s pitching coach on this 12 months’s WBC — to win an ALDS recreation.) As an alternative, they slipped from first place to about .500 in 2024, blowing a chief playoff alternative within the course of, after which to 70-92 in 2025.
Alongside the best way, they went by probably the most brutal commerce deadline hearth gross sales in baseball historical past. Like, test to ensure the Mary Tyler Moore statue continues to be there. Minnesota’s payroll has dropped by a 3rd because the finish of 2023. A workforce that was getting in on main free brokers a pair offseasons in the past is now getting outspent closely by the Reds and Royals.
Workforce management was not spared; subject supervisor Rocco Baldelli was fired on the finish of final season, after which president of baseball ops Derek Falvey left on the finish of January by mutual consent.
Even so, the American League — particularly the AL Central — is so comfortable that the Twins nonetheless had a puncher’s probability on the playoffs: 31.7% on Tuesday morning, to be exact. A rotation headed by López, Ryan, and Bailey Ober can cowl up loads of flaws. A rotation with out López, much less so.
The main candidate for the open rotation spot is Zebby Matthews, who pitched to an unsightly 5.56 ERA in 16 begins final 12 months, however with a .357 opponent BABIP and peripherals that point out we should always anticipate his ERA to drop by at the very least a run in 2026, possibly two. If Matthews fails, Minnesota — having traded away a 3rd of its roster eventually 12 months’s deadline — is flush with high-minors rotation depth. The Twins at present have seven minor league beginning pitchers on their 40-man roster, together with Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas, and 2022 second-rounder Connor Prielipp.
Is there a López in that group? I think not. However there’s no scarcity of fellows who can stand on a mound and look competent for 5 innings at a time.
I think about that the information of López’s busted elbow isn’t going to alter the general pessimistic outlook of 2026 for the Twins. However the unhealthy information goes even additional than simply this 12 months.
López is on a four-year, $73.5 million contract that kicked in for the 2024 season. His $21.75 million wage alone accounts for greater than 20% of the Twins’ whole payroll this season. That’s an entire write-off now.
Can it worsen? Simply ask Mick McCarthy. Spring coaching is a reasonably widespread time for pitchers to both injure their elbow or uncover that their elbow has already been compromised. Generally, in the case of diagnosing and treating an harm — particularly a critical one like a torn UCL for a pitcher — there’s no time like the current. The earlier you already know what’s unsuitable, the earlier you’ll be able to repair it, and the earlier the participant can rehab the harm and return to the sphere.
However February is a tough time to get a prognosis with a 12- to 18-month restoration interval. Now, we don’t know the way lengthy it’s going to take López to get again on the mound; at this juncture, even his medical doctors in all probability don’t know. Possibly López is a candidate for an inside brace, or he’ll ace the rehab from surgical procedure and be again in Fort Myers a 12 months from now, good as new.
Alternatively, what if the restoration interval is extra on the 18-month aspect? Or what if López will get again on the sphere inside an inexpensive time period however wants a couple of months of recreation motion to get again into ace type? Now we’re speaking about not only one misplaced season however two. And two seasons is all López has left on his present contract. In a worst-case state of affairs, he’s already thrown his final significant pitch for the Twins. Man, that’s miserable.