“I’ll begin with the straightforward reply:” wrote Jeff Zimmerman again in 2014. The subsequent half was bolded: “No, first and second half stats aren’t as essential as the complete season for pitchers and hitters.” Jeff was speaking about fantasy baseball, and whether or not you must think about a very robust or weak second half extra related to a participant’s future efficiency, however the lesson was clear. General stats inform you much more a few participant than half a season of stats.
The identical lesson is true over the course of a profession. Since 1933, the yr of the primary All-Star Sport, Stathead says that 2,146 gamers have made a minimum of 900 profession plate appearances in each the primary half and the second half. Slightly below 93% of these gamers have a second half OPS that’s inside 10% of their first half OPS. (We’re utilizing percentages right here reasonably than uncooked factors so as to create a stage enjoying subject for gamers of various ability ranges. I calculated them by subtracting every participant’s first half OPS from their second half OPS, then dividing the distinction by their first half OPS.) Solely 15 gamers – once more, that’s 15 gamers out of a pattern of two,146 – noticed their second half OPS differ from their first half OPS by greater than 20%.
All of this is sensible. There’s no purpose {that a} batter needs to be persistently higher originally or finish of the season. As Eno Sarris as soon as reminded us, seasons themselves are arbitrary endpoints. Many of the 15 outliers I discussed within the earlier paragraph are the outcomes of brief, noisy samples, both as a result of that they had brief careers or they’re nonetheless within the early phases of their profession proper now. The longer your profession, the extra probably that your true expertise stage will shine by, whatever the date on the calendar.
Today, there’s even much less purpose for gamers to be scorching or gradual starters. As soon as upon a time, gamers needed to take offseason jobs on the slaughterhouse again house in Fargo to make ends meet, and Whitey Ford was telling anybody who would pay attention that the key to trying such as you stored in form over the winter was getting a superb suntan. These days, all people trains year-round and works with skilled trainers and nutritionists. No one’s ever that distant from enjoying form originally of the yr, and no one’s ever had higher in-season upkeep. Gamers spend their offseasons within the fitness center and the cages, they usually spend the common season ingesting customized restoration smoothies and resting in nap pods.
For instance, Elly De La Cruz has large splits, with a 128 wRC+ within the first half and an 84 wRC+ within the second half. Nonetheless, he’s solely performed three seasons. In 2023, he had an electrical debut, then collapsed amid widespread stories of fatigue. In 2025, he was enjoying by an damage and the dying of his sister within the second half. It’s doable that De La Cruz will proceed to be a scorching starter and gradual finisher. He performs the sport at 1,000,000 miles an hour, taking the additional base, stealing, laying out. Perhaps he’ll all the time spend the second half a bit extra banged up than the typical participant. For now, although, it’s method too early to say. He seems to be primed to have an extended profession, and in some unspecified time in the future issues will most likely steadiness out. (As for whether or not there’s a correlation between basestealing and second half decline, I’d observe that Rickey Henderson had higher first half numbers, however Lou Brock and Tim Raines had been higher within the second half. Even Cal Ripken Jr., who put his physique by extra punishment than simply about anybody, solely noticed his OPS drop by 25 factors within the second half.)
I doubt I’m telling you something you don’t know, however right here’s a scatter plot that exhibits what we’re speaking about. The extra you play, the much less probably you’re to have huge splits. (The scatter plot exhibits absolutely the worth of the distinction, ignoring whether or not a participant was higher or worse within the first half.)
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So as to separate your self from the massive proper triangle of ordinary deviations, it’s a must to play lengthy sufficient to rack up 10,000 plate appearances, and the overwhelming majority of the gamers who do which can be Corridor of Famers. It’s actually doable that some gamers are gradual starters and a few gamers simply are inclined to get banged up within the second half, however the pattern measurement wanted to show it definitively is simply too huge. So that is all numerous nonsense. Simply to hammer that house, I’d like to finish by speaking about two of the widest dots on that scatterplot.
See that purple dot all the best way out at 30%? That’s Michael Harris II, who has a profession wRC+ of 80 within the first half and 134 within the second half. It’s a surprisingly large disparity. Within the first half, Harris is barely playable. Within the second, he’s one of many higher hitters in baseball. Clearly, we’re speaking a few small pattern right here. Harris has performed simply 4 seasons, and the most important statistical distinction between his first and second half numbers is a 60-point soar in BABIP. Nonetheless, he’s on his personal on the market. I’d guess that issues will even out some over the course of his profession, however after this begin, he’s virtually actually going to finish up with a fairly large cut up every time he retires. And if that is simply what he does yearly, I can’t wait to learn the 2026 model of the article explaining how he turned issues round midway by the yr.
Julio Rodríguez is that different purple dot method out towards the best. He’s not fairly as excessive as Harris – nobody is as excessive as Harris! Rodríguez has additionally by no means been unhealthy on the plate, even within the first half. He has a profession wRC+ of 114 within the first half and 154 within the second half. Most gamers can be loads proud of a 114 wRC+ at any level within the season, however a distinction of 40 factors remains to be very excessive. It’s even weirder whenever you observe that every one 4 of his IL stints have come in the course of the second half reasonably than the primary. Perhaps he’s only a gradual starter, too. Perhaps each of those guys needs to be ramping up early to keep away from their dreaded gradual begins. Proper? Mistaken.
Harris and Rodríguez begin out scorching yearly! We’ve spring coaching numbers going again to 2006, and in the event you set a minimal of 60 plate appearances, you get a pattern of two,482 gamers. Rodríguez’s 174 wRC+ is the Thirteenth-best mark within the final 20 years! Harris isn’t proper on the prime of the leaderboard, however he has a profession wRC+ of 136, higher than his second half numbers. The curler coaster is even wilder for Harris, who can also be simply 6-for-35 within the postseason for a paltry 24 wRC+. Simply to put all of it out plainly:
Spring Coaching: He’s nice.
First Half: He’s horrible.
Second Half: He’s nice.
Postseason: He’s depressing.
I instructed you it was nonsense.