Daylight Guys: Prospects We Disagree About

No two scouts or evaluators are going to agree on all the pieces, and we’re no exception. We get requested on a regular basis about who favored which participant extra, or who was extra lukewarm on this man versus that one — to not point out the regular stream of “Outlet A ranked Participant B right here, however you had him there, what provides?” questions that populate our chats. These are particularly compelling and related inquiries this time of yr, as a result of inevitably we needed to resolve a level of disagreement as we compiled our record of the Prime 100 prospects in baseball.

This yr, we’ve determined to handle these questions head on. All through our list-building course of, we got here to related, or related sufficient, conclusions about most gamers. Oftentimes Eric was a tick greater on one participant right here, or Brendan the excessive man there, and normally a fast backwards and forwards was sufficient to bridge any gaps. In a pair instances although, we didn’t attain consensus. There have been a handful of gamers that Brendan was joyful to rank, however Eric would have most popular to go away off, and vice versa. We expect providing a peek into these discussions will show insightful for readers. These again and forths spotlight the sorts of gamers who’re usually harder to guage, in addition to the metrics and scouting practices that information decision-making when you must make a name by hook or by crook. By means of all of it, we hope you’ll arrive at a conclusion that almost all scouts and analysts finally attain: That spirited debate is a wholesome a part of the evaluative course of, and disagreements with out clear decision are sometimes the price of doing enterprise in an unsure world.

Kendry Chourio, RHP, Kansas Metropolis Royals

Brendan: Let’s begin with a pitcher who finally didn’t make our record. I by no means caught Kendry Chourio dwell, however I adored his stuff after I placed on the tape. He throws arduous, I see a path to a plus curve and changeup, and he’s superior for somebody who performed all of final season as a 17-year-old. The Royals rightly promoted him off of the Dominican complicated, after which he dominated in Arizona to the purpose that he truly wound up in Low-A down the stretch. And you’ll see why: For his age, his skill to command the ball and execute his secondaries stands out instantly. His line – 51.1 innings, 63 strikeouts, 0.95 WHIP, simply 5 walks – was unbelievable. I feel we each agree that there are a number of good issues occurring right here. Are you able to elaborate on why you have been nonetheless a bit of skeptical of him when it got here time to construct the record?

Eric: I agree Chourio is superior, each when it comes to how full his repertoire is for his age, and his skill to execute every of his pitches. Within the 10 years I’ve been doing this, there hasn’t been a pitcher I can recall who has climbed from the DSL to Low-A of their debut season at age 17. Even guys who signal once they’re older have a tendency to remain within the D.R. for his or her total first season for signing bonus tax functions. However promotions on their very own should not actually proof of something. And the opposite items of Chourio’s profile — he’s an undersized righty with a violent supply — I’ve seen many instances earlier than. Deivi Garcia, Luis Patiño, Anderson Espinoza, Carson Fulmer, Marcos Diplán, Eric Pardinho… there are a number of guys with thrilling three-pitch mixes at this age who don’t maintain it. For a pitcher with Chourio’s stature to thrive as an enormous league starter could be distinctive. Sonny Grey and Marcus Stroman, two guys with a lot cleaner deliveries than Chourio, did it. However largely it’s large, robust dudes, and/or gamers whose deliveries are superbly fluid. If I’m going to grade an 18-year-old pitcher irresponsibly, it’s going to be a big Eury Pérez kind, or a minimum of somebody extra prototypical trying, like Seth Hernandez or Matthew Liberatore, and even these sorts of younger pitchers are dangerous propositions just because, properly, they’re younger pitchers. One want solely take a look at any draft record from the previous to see what the attrition price is while you play Russian Roulette along with your UCL each fifth day. And that is all earlier than we even get to among the particular nits to select in Chourio’s stuff, particularly the form and angle of his fastball.

Brendan: The factor is, the attrition on the again of Prime 100 lists is actually excessive. It’s only a undeniable fact that the common end result for the blokes we rank within the 80s or 90s on these lists is a brief, largely ineffectual profession. And so whereas I see the demographic threat, in a spot on the rankings the place we’re taking pictures, I’d reasonably guess on the blokes with the traits I like most. And fastball form apart, there’s a number of good right here. He might get damage; pitchers usually do, and shorter, smaller ones are much more weak. However a few of these varieties additionally burn very brightly, even when it’s for a short while.

Lazaro Montes, OF, Seattle Mariners

Brendan: Lazaro Montes is an attention-grabbing daylight case as a result of we truly don’t disagree on him that a lot. We each see 70 uncooked energy, and he’s clearly bringing it into video games. Defensively, we’ve each been pleasantly shocked that as he’s labored himself into higher form, he’s additionally turned himself right into a satisfactory outfielder — which was no assure two or three years in the past. On the opposite facet, there’s apparent swing and miss threat. The divergence right here isn’t what sort of participant he’s, however reasonably how aggressive we wish to be with a boom-bust bat.

Eric: You’re proper that our evaluations of Montes are principally the identical, and the place we differ is in our interpretation in methods to worth the place he’s on the prospect continuum. My hangups lie in his contact price, which was 62% in 2025. There wasn’t a single certified large league hitter whose contact price was beneath 67.6% final season. Now, among the most efficient main league hitters (together with Ohtani and Decide) have a contact price in that space, however they hit the ball so arduous that not solely are they accessing energy, however their hit device finally ends up enjoying manner higher than their pure contact price as a result of hard-hit contact is more likely to fall in for a success.

Is Montes considered one of these guys? I don’t suppose so. The gamers I described (and among the high-whiff hitters now we have on the record, like Bryce Eldridge) can entry their energy all around the zone. They whiff a ton, however they’re additionally a menace to do harm in opposition to principally any pitch as a result of they transfer the barrel round properly sufficient to attach with pitches all around the zone. Montes, conversely, is weak to elevated fastballs due to his size, and he swings beneath them time and again and over. If opposing pitchers execute to this location, they get him out. It is a hitter who I feel large league pitchers are going to have the ability to remedy. I’d nonetheless be apprehensive about this even when Montes’ contact price have been nearer to 70%, however once more it’s about 10% worse than the underside of the large league leaderboard.

Blake Mitchell, C, Kansas Metropolis Royals

Brendan: For essentially the most half, our appears on the catchers tracked fairly properly. However there are two on the backside of the record who sparked among the most vital disagreements we had all through the method. Possibly we are able to begin with Blake Mitchell, who I’ve been keen on since Kansas Metropolis drafted him.

I see a superb athlete who has gotten so much higher behind the plate. I see the potential for plus affect. And I’m prepared to present him a go on some tough numbers on the plate final yr as a result of we all know {that a} damaged hamate (Mitchell broke his again within the spring of 2025) is the sort of harm that may linger for a yr and sap a man’s energy. Is the misplaced yr supplying you with extra pause than it’s giving me, or are there different elements behind your preliminary hesitance to place him on the Prime 100?

Eric: I see a participant whose construct principally is what it was when he was a highschool junior — which isn’t Blake’s fault, it’s simply how issues have panned out. However I additionally see a participant who nonetheless actually struggles to dam pitches within the filth (although his receiving has improved, I’ll provide you with that), and whose underlying contact points are even worse than his profession 30% strikeout price already insinuate them to be. Mitchell’s miss price in opposition to fastballs in 2025 was a whopping 35%, primarily the miss price a 70-grade fastball would produce. He actually struggles to cowl the up-and-away portion of the zone, and this has been an issue for him for some time. His strikeout price has been 30% or so, a purple flag space for any prospect, for his total profession.

Brendan: It’s not simply the receiving: His caught-stealing price jumped from 14% to 31% final yr. And people two areas are way more essential to me than the blocking.

The strikeouts fear me, although I’m prepared to excuse among the fastball miss as a product of the hand; bat pace and energy go down while you return from a hamate break, and that doesn’t simply have an effect on homers. However I additionally suppose Mitchell’s large strikeout totals are the product of a reasonably good method. He’s going to punch out, however he’s going to stroll, too. And the way in which he hits — linked swing, some manipulation within the path, above-average bat pace, can use the entire discipline, tends to place the ball within the air, respectable method, robust hard-hit price when he connects — simply makes me wish to keep on him and provides him each shot to develop right into a productive hitter.

Whereas we’re speaking about catchers with disappointing numbers in 2025, we would as properly contact on the opposite man now…

Thayron Liranzo, C, Detroit Tigers

Eric: Prospect growth usually isn’t linear. Guys hit skids and pace bumps on a regular basis, typically simply because they want a beat to regulate to the standard of play at a brand new stage. Generally they’re enjoying by harm. Catching is punishing. When a catcher has an terrible yr, like Thayron Liranzo did in 2025, I ponder if one thing like this has occurred. In Liranzo’s case, he was not solely coping with harm but additionally a number of off-the-field private issues, together with household points again dwelling and the loss of life of his longtime coach, whom he considered a father determine, in addition to beginning an entire season in a brand new org and conducting spring coaching in a brand new place. He’s a college-aged child whose life was flipped the wrong way up; it’s not stunning he struggled to regulate. And in contrast to Mitchell, Liranzo has truly had seasons by which his strikeouts have been in an okay space.

Brendan: I’ll say this on the outset: Studying that there was a shoulder harm behind the dip in manufacturing was the precise sort of factor I needed to listen to, as a result of Liranzo was truly fairly good for a pair months in the midst of the season. It takes the sting off the information and the visible evals of the final couple months when you recognize he was enjoying by one thing fairly vital.

That mentioned, there have been issues that gave me pause even earlier than the harm. For me, Liranzo is monitoring like a below-average catcher defensively. He’s a good framer, and he does properly with pitches low within the zone. He tends to point out his work, although, and the surplus motion is a round-down trait regardless of the wrist energy. He’s a gradual mover in any other case, which exhibits up in lengthy transfers and inconsistent throwing mechanics, limiting the utility of his plus arm energy.

On the plate, it’s an extended swing and a grooved path — he was largely a mistake hitter final yr. A point of persistence is required for switch-hitters and catchers, and particularly switch-hitters who’re additionally catchers. However I don’t see a lot hit talent but to go together with all the facility, and suppose there’s a threat he’s fairly one-dimensional. And now you may have the load loss; he’s reportedly down 35 kilos this spring. What impact is that going to have? It might be a optimistic, serving to him be extra nimble. However it could even have ramifications for his energy and talent to resist the pains of the job. Finally, I’m snug rating him, however it felt applicable to slip him towards the again of the record.

Eric: You’re undoubtedly making a bit of little bit of my argument for me as a manner of pre-empting it — that it is a switch-hitting catcher, each demos that deserve an extended developmental runway — so I’ll do some of the identical for yours. This complete factor about him shedding 30 kilos, I’m unsure whether or not that’s good. I need it to be, and it’s proof Thayron is coachable and motivated to enhance, however I used to be inclined to undertaking on him partially as a result of he was such an infinite, bodily dude. Tyler Flowers breaks late, Evan Gattis breaks late. Large, bodily guys who, over time, can climate the burden of the place whereas retaining energy on the plate. I’ve seen Liranzo do some good issues on protection, however I agree his look on tape late in 2025 was unhealthy. His projection was at all times extra of a gradual burn although he’s already on the 40-man. In my thoughts, Liranzo has been a man who I anticipated to be within the combine extra in, say, 2028, when he’ll nonetheless solely be 24 initially of that season. I do suppose he’s simply a mistake hitter, however with sufficient energy, that’s sufficient at catcher. His profile is now actually depending on how he develops as a defender with this new physique.