After an extended, quiet offseason, Zac Gallen is again the place he began. In November, he turned down a qualifying provide, a one-year deal from the Diamondbacks price $22.025 million. On Friday, Gallen and the Diamondbacks agreed to phrases on a brand new contract. Cease me in the event you’ve heard this one earlier than – it’s for one yr and $22.025 million (with deferrals that drop the online current worth to $18.75 million). Arizona’s ace is as soon as once more on the high of the rotation within the desert.
Gallen was my no. 19 free agent this winter, and I’ll simply reproduce the primary line of my write-up right here: “After Gallen’s résumé for about an hour, I got here to an apparent conclusion: I’m glad I’m not a significant league GM.” He had a extreme case of pumpkinization in 2025. He missed fewer bats, drew fewer chases, walked extra batters and struck out fewer, gave up louder contact, didn’t hold the ball on the bottom, and misplaced a little bit of velocity. It was the worst season of his profession by a big margin; his 4.83 ERA may need been a caricature of his efficiency, however all of his superior run prevention estimators surged to career-worst marks, too.
As a platform yr, it left one thing to be desired. However I nonetheless suppose Gallen was proper to show down his QO and survey the panorama. After that didn’t work out, nevertheless, he made the plain alternative: Run it again in the identical place and check out once more. Provided that he put up a 3.20 ERA (3.22 FIP, 3.47 xFIP) from 2022 via 2024, price a whopping 12.2 WAR (14.9 rWAR), betting on not less than just a little little bit of bounce-back earlier than a second journey to free company absolutely felt very interesting.
I don’t have a powerful really feel for what Gallen’s 2026 will seem like. The vary of outcomes is big. Did you simply see what I mentioned about his final 4 seasons? I do suppose that there’s an honest probability of a rebound to his prior type, a borderline ace who you’d be ecstatic with as a no. 2. His method has by no means been easy to determine; even at his finest, he threw a boatload of pitches that our fashions weren’t enamored with and made issues work with command and deception. Now, after that ability principally turned off for a yr, I’m fearful that he can’t flip it again on once more – however my base case continues to be that he figures it out. It’s the form of threat I’d be excited by taking as a borderline playoff staff.
That describes the Diamondbacks completely. After a stirring World Collection run in 2023, they haven’t returned to October regardless of averaging 84.5 wins prior to now two years. The time to strike is now. Ketel Marte, their offensive pacesetter, is within the tail finish of his prime. Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Gabriel Moreno are every beneath contract for some time, and so they’re all nice proper this minute. Losing a yr of this lineup with out ample pitching could be a tragedy.
To be truthful, it’s not like this staff hasn’t tried. The D-backs signed Corbin Burnes, the highest free agent pitcher, final yr, just for him to want elbow surgical procedure. The yr earlier than that, they signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year deal price $80 million, and there was additionally the entire Jordan Montgomery saga. Earlier this winter, they gave Merrill Kelly two years and $40 million to return to the fold.
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Even with all of these signings, although, Arizona wanted extra. Earlier than including Gallen, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Michael Soroka, who has mixed for 201 main league innings over the previous 5 years, as an on a regular basis member of their rotation. Ryne Nelson, one other key contributor, pale down the stretch and has by no means managed 30 begins in his three years within the rotation. Brandon Pfaadt has hit that 30-start plateau in two straight years, however he has a 4.97 ERA in that stretch, so his leash shouldn’t be infinite. Their farm system has a couple of attainable candidates within the higher minors, however with out Gallen, they could have wanted a number of of these guys to pan out on the main league stage. Even after plugging Gallen into the projections, we have now this as a below-average rotation. It’s not a lot that the D-backs don’t have 5 succesful main league starters. The issue is that groups want greater than that, and in addition want some upside, as a result of a bunch of league-average starters is often not sufficient to make a playoff rotation.
Our playoff odds give Arizona a 32% probability of constructing the playoffs, with an 81.4-win median projection. That’s the precise proper place within the win curve the place including expertise pays off most, and this staff has largely performed that thus far this winter. It introduced again Kelly (traded on the deadline) and Gallen, traded for Nolan Arenado, and signed a smattering of attention-grabbing discount free brokers for depth. Gallen may solely add a win or so to this projection, since he’s changing pitchers who’re higher than alternative stage, however the Diamondbacks are in a state of affairs the place each win issues. They missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker in 2024, and by a mere three video games in ’25. Overlook a calculation of {dollars} per win; they’re excited about {dollars} per marginal enhance in playoff odds, and from that perspective, including Gallen is a no brainer.
I feel it’s affordable to wonder if Arizona missed out on an opportunity so as to add a high first baseman or DH earlier within the winter. Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber may need been out of the staff’s value vary, however both of the NPB hitting stars — Munetaka Murakami or Kazuma Okamoto — would have been attention-grabbing matches in Phoenix. A number of the high beginning pitchers would’ve seemed mighty good there, too. However for no matter purpose, the Diamondbacks didn’t land any of them, and right here we’re in mid-February. It’s like that previous saying about saving for retirement: The most effective time to signal a difference-making free agent was two months in the past. The second-best time to signal a difference-making free agent is now.
It takes two to signal a contract, however on this case, Gallen’s incentives are lined up with Arizona’s. He needs to hit free company once more with no qualifying provide hooked up, and ideally with an excellent platform yr on his résumé. The squad would love nothing greater than for that to occur; the attainable futures the place Gallen has a resurgent yr embody a number of playoff appearances. That’s an excellent capper on the signing, actually. what Gallen is able to doing in Arizona, and each he and the Diamondbacks are hoping that he reveals it yet one more time in 2026.