How’s My Driving: 2019 Prime 100 Audit

1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B TOR 21.2 20.7 41 70 60 Guerrero had Chosen One aura from the leap and has primarily made good on it. Although he has had a few peak years that you may classify as a 70 on the dimensions, his early-career third base protection and the couple of seasons through which he hit for extra modest energy (for a primary baseman, anyway) relegate him to the 60-grade tier. He’s primarily tied for fifth with Pete Alonso for wins amongst first basemen since 2019, and whenever you take a look at the WAR tiers from that span, you’ll be able to see Vladdy falls fairly comfortably into the third tier. Nonetheless solely 26, his profession is on a particular trajectory, and he was arguably the catalyst for the Blue Jays turning into certainly one of baseball’s monetary juggernauts and apparent contenders. The truth that he was a 60 throughout a window that started when he was 20 may be very particular, although you would possibly suppose it underwhelming that he was solely a 60. That grade illustrates how skinny the margins are at first base greater than it signifies that we have been a bit overzealous grading Guerrero. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 3 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS SDP 21.4 26.5 19 65 70 Initially signed by the White Sox in 2015, Tatis was traded to San Diego for James Shields throughout his first prolonged spring coaching in Arizona, earlier than he had even performed an official professional recreation. Three years later, he broke camp with the massive league membership as a 20-year-old, and had as phenomenal and electrical an introduction to the massive leagues as anybody since I’ve began doing this. San Diego had misplaced the Chargers only a few years earlier than Tatis debuted, and the staff’s run of competition coincided together with his arrival. A mistake-prone shortstop, he made a seamless transition to proper discipline and have become probably the greatest defenders within the sport, no matter place. He’s the 2019 rookie class’ WAR chief although accidents (some attributable to off-the-field thrill-seeking, others as a result of his physique is too explosive for its personal good) and a PED suspension have restricted his enjoying time. Among the many high 30 place participant WAR producers since 2019, Tatis is certainly one of simply three who’ve performed fewer than 700 video games (Bobby Witt Jr., and Yordan Alvarez are the opposite two). Prorating his manufacturing right here (similar as I did for Ronald Acuña Jr. final yr) is why Tatis is a 70 and never only a 65. Good for Keith Legislation for having Fernando ranked first this yr; it was the fitting name. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 5 Victor Robles CF WSN 23.1 7.4 189 65 40+ Robles was billed as a five-tool participant and carried out like one all through his minor league profession. Beneath the floor, nonetheless, he lacked the measurable energy of a participant who was truly going to hit 20-plus homers within the large leagues. As a result of we have been nonetheless within the early phases of gathering and understanding that information, we overrated Victor a bit bit. There have been staff individuals who alluded to this when offering suggestions on this Prime 100 record whereas it was in progress, however Robles had performed effectively in restricted large league time and this rating definitely appeared appropriate after his rookie yr. Nonetheless, whereas Robles has had two glorious peak seasons, he has in any other case been a 40. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 7 Nick Senzel 3B CIN 25.0 -1.1 412 60 ORG Accidents performed a job in Senzel’s struggles and in addition restricted his minor league information pattern, which made is much less significant. He ran an absurdly excessive BABIP at mainly each cease. I purchased that he had a particular hit device, nevertheless it has truly been nearer to common. A 50-hit/40-power combo, which is actually what Senzel turned out to have, will not be sufficient to profile at third base. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 8 Eloy Jiménez RF CHW 23.5 4.2 277 60 40+ I used to be deliberately a bit decrease on Jiménez (not that eighth general is burying anybody) as a result of he had already gotten so large and been injured so typically as a prospect that I apprehensive he’d be a DH-only participant within the majors. His accidents turned out to be even worse than that, and Eloy has solely performed greater than 100 video games in two seasons, together with his lone near-complete season the shortened 2020 slate. His price manufacturing when he’s been wholesome (he’s a profession .269/.318/.462 hitter) has been good, and he will get a fairly constructive real-world grade consequently, although it’s effectively wanting his forecast. Getting into 2021, Jiménez was on a tempo that might have enabled him to hit this grade, however XXL athletes like this typically have earlier declines. Jiménez is at present on a minor league take care of the Blue Jays and will nonetheless play a consequential function on a very good staff throughout his wholesome stretches. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 9 Bo Bichette SS TOR 22.3 20.0 44 60 60 Like Willy Adames final yr, everybody nailed their stories and rating for Bichette, as all of us had him ranked inside 5 spots, from eighth to thirteenth. Despite the fact that Bo has had stretches inside seasons the place his swing-happy fashion has precipitated him to run chilly, he’s additionally had intervals when he will get white-hot and carries the offense for weeks at a time, and he’s posted large numbers for a shortstop nearly yearly. Does his method put him vulnerable to having a Javier Báez profession arc? Perhaps, however we’re simply pre-free company manufacturing right here, and Bo was a 60. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 10 Kyle Tucker RF HOU 23.4 25.4 24 60 70 Longtime readers would possibly recall that when Tucker was in highschool, his swing was being in contrast to that of Ted Williams. The Splendid Splinter’s place within the recreation’s historical past made that really feel barely ridiculous, and you may debate whether or not Tucker was going to be a fantastic hitter simply because his swing appeared good, however it’s good. He’s been the second-most productive participant from this graduating class and, just like Tatis, is just a bit shy of the uncooked WAR manufacturing of a 70-grade participant however comfortably meets it whenever you account for his accidents and prorate his pandemic season. His 138 wRC+ is tenth in all of baseball since he debuted. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 13 Keston Hiura 2B MIL 23.9 2.0 347 60 35+ Hiura performed the outfield as an underclassman at UC Irvine after which an elbow harm prevented him from enjoying protection in his draft yr. At the moment, the danger related together with his prospectdom centered round his speculative defensive match at second base and potential tumble to left discipline. Whereas he ended up being a adequate defender to play second within the large leagues, the load-bearing Jenga block in Hiura’s profile was truly a gap in his swing created by the trail his arms took again to the baseball. Hiura’s arms are highly effective however take too lengthy to get on airplane with fastballs. After a productive rookie yr throughout which he Okay’d a regarding 30.7% of the time, the ebook was out on this man, and Kiura managed only a 57% contact price towards pitches 93 mph and above from 2020 by way of 2023. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 24 Luis Urías 2B SDP 23.0 5.5 236 55 40+ Urías walked greater than he struck out in every of the primary 4 seasons of his professional profession, and there was a stretch when Kiley and I questioned if we have been underappreciating the likelihood that he is perhaps a Mookie Betts sort of mold-breaking hitter, one whose particular contact really feel permits him to hit for energy regardless of restricted physicality. A few yr earlier than he debuted, Urías began buying and selling contact for energy, and finally had two good large league seasons in the course of a number of below-average campaigns. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 33 Austin Riley 3B ATL 23.2 20.2 43 55 60 Riley is “solely” the eighth-most productive third baseman since he debuted as a result of his peer group throughout that span is traditionally important. Riley’s manufacturing was on a 70-grade stage for his three full seasons, however the final two years have been extra like a 55 as he’s handled harm. In mixture, his FV grade was fairly near his precise manufacturing, with one distinction being that my hit device grade (45) was bang on when it comes to predicting Riley’s strikeout price (26.1%, a bit worse than common) however not his batting common (.270), which has been higher than common due to how Riley hits the ball. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 34 Chris Paddack RHP SDP 24.4 7.3 111 55 40+ Paddack was an older highschool select of Texas who the Marlins traded to San Diego for Fernando Rodney earlier than the youthful righty broke out. Paddack’s sensational changeup, in addition to his above-average velocity and command, made him seem to be a very good guess to be a mid-rotation starter regardless of below-average breaking stuff. He carried out to expectations throughout his rookie season, however his fastball turned out to be extra weak to break than anticipated, and Paddack has both been injured or posted bloated ERAs for a lot of the previous half decade. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 36 Michael Soroka RHP ATL 22.9 5.9 161 55 40 Soroka ate 174.2 innings throughout his 4-WAR 2019 season after which spent a lot of the subsequent half decade coping with accidents or fighting walks. The ultra-competitive Canadian righty pitched like a 45-grade starter in 2025 and would possibly nonetheless issue behind a very good rotation, however his first seven years of service time yielded underneath 1 WAR per season. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 45 Alex Reyes RHP STL 25.8 1.7 DNQ 55 INJ Reyes debuted in 2016 and was only a few innings shy of graduating from rookie standing that yr. A marijuana suspension, a Tommy John surgical procedure, and a torn lat would derail his 2017-19 seasons, after which we had the pandemic yr in 2020. In 2021, Reyes pitched 72.1 walk-prone frames out of St. Louis’ bullpen, a profession excessive. The next season, he started to take care of shoulder points that might result in two extra surgical procedures, which prevented him from ever pitching for the Dodgers, who signed him earlier than the beginning of the 2023 season. Two offseasons in the past, Reyes and the Mets agreed on a two-year minor league deal, which fell by way of attributable to what NJ.com’s Manny Gomez reported as “private causes.” When you caught peak Reyes on certainly one of his greatest days, you’d see him sitting 97-101 mph with an absolute hammer breaking ball and plus-plus changeup. His changeup and slider generated plus-plus swinging strike charges (every simply over 20%) within the wholesome large league innings he was in a position to throw. So many gifted pitchers fall wanting our collective expectations for no different motive than harm, and Reyes is among the many extra outstanding of the final decade or so. He was included in final yr’s audit as an fascinating harm case, however truly graduated in 2019. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 46 Brandon Lowe 2B TBR 25.9 16.9 63 50 55 Kiley and I have been actually excessive on Lowe however not fairly excessive sufficient, and never fairly for the fitting causes. We thought he’d have a extra balanced contact/energy talent set, however Lowe has as a substitute been one of many higher power-hitting second basemen of the final decade, with a few 30-homer seasons regardless of elevated strikeouts. Lowe is tied for eighth in WAR manufacturing amongst second basemen since he debuted, seventh when you contemplate Tommy Edman extra of a shortstop or heart fielder than a second baseman. Fairly good for a 3rd spherical choose. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 47 Danny Jansen C TOR 25.2 10.8 120 50 50 Jansen is a profession .220/.310/.415 hitter with a 100 wRC+, which is sufficient for him to rank eighth amongst catchers in WAR since he debuted. He has been a gentle producer, with 5 double-digit house run seasons throughout that span. Despite the fact that his enjoying time was impacted by the emergence of Alejandro Kirk, Jansen has been one of many 10 most efficient gamers at perhaps the sport’s most dear place, a participant whose projection we nailed. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 48 Pete Alonso 1B NYM 25.5 20.8 40 50 60 There was an extended stretch the place mainly no righty-hitting faculty first basemen become a fantastic large leaguer. In between Eric Karros (who was drafted the yr I used to be born) and this latest window of Rhys Hoskins, Alonso, and Christian Walker is a interval full of men like Paul Konerko and Richie Sexson (drafted out of highschool), or Paul Goldschmidt and Kevin Youkilis sorts who performed some third base. Alonso was a primary baseman from the second he set foot on campus in Gainesville, and the failure of his demographic was a part of why he fell to the second spherical of his draft although he was a productive faculty hitter. He slugged 36 homers within the minors coming into the offseason through which Kiley and I ranked him right here, and we thought it was daring to foretell that Alonso was about to interrupt an extended streak of school first base failure, when truly we had underappreciated Pete’s energy by a full grade. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 57 Touki Toussaint RHP ATL 24.0 0.0 DNQ 50 35 Touki’s fastball form precipitated that pitch to minimize, and it most likely additionally made his glorious curveball simpler for hitters to determine out of hand. Reliever-quality command stays a part of his recreation, and Touki has spent many of the final half decade as an up/down arm. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 58 Dylan Stop RHP CHW 24.5 21.0 12 50 60 Stop was a hard-throwing excessive schooler who was given an over-slot bonus within the sixth spherical as a part of a 2014 Cubs draft class that included Kyle Schwarber (signed underneath slot) and Justin Steele. He was traded to the White Sox in trade for Jose Quintana in 2017, and debuted on the South Facet two years later. He would go on to change into one of many higher energy pitchers in baseball, with time spent in Chicago and San Diego earlier than his large offseason take care of Toronto. Since reaching The Present, Stop ranks fourth within the large leagues in strikeouts and third in common fastball velocity amongst pitchers who’ve thrown no less than 850 innings throughout that span. He’s additionally essentially the most walk-prone of the massive league starters who’ve thrown that many innings since he debuted, and within the backside 5 in groundball price. He has carried out like somebody who justifiably may have been ranked as probably the greatest couple of pitching prospects in baseball although the orgs Stop has performed for (late Epstein-era Cubs, White Sox, Padres) aren’t paragons of pitching improvement. He may need one other gear in him now that he’s someplace with a greater observe report. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 59 Francisco Mejía C SDP 24.6 1.2 365 50 40 Mejía was a switch-hitting catcher with nutty bat management and a plus-plus arm who the Padres acquired from Cleveland for Brad Hand. Mejía’s lack of plate self-discipline turned out to be an issue on the large league stage (he has only one above-average offensive season), and his lack of measurement (5-foot-8, 188 kilos) created hurdles for him as a framer and ball-blocker that he struggled to beat. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 74 Yusei Kikuchi LHP SEA 29.0 10.2 71 50 50 Kikuchi has been homer-prone since coming over from Japan, however that was very true throughout his Mariners tenure and in his first marketing campaign with the Blue Jays. As soon as he and Toronto discovered an arm slot and supply that labored for him, Kikuchi was in a position to flip in his greatest couple of seasons. He’s made 32 begins and posted no less than 2.5 WAR in every of the final three years main as much as this audit, placing his output in keeping with his projection. Keep in mind that among the publications merely weren’t rating overseas execs like Kikuchi presently, and we’ve stopped together with those that aren’t topic to bonus restrictions in our rankings since. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 79 José Suarez LHP LAA 22.4 1.8 254 50 35+ In 2018, Suarez had a bit velo spike, struck out greater than a batter per inning, and reached Triple-A as a 20-year-old; he appeared like a well-rounded, high-floored fourth starter prospect. After two years pitching like a 45-grade arm in a starter/swingman function, Suarez was moved to the bullpen and struggled till he was traded to the Braves for Ian Anderson. He’s ridden the waiver wire from the Braves to the Orioles and again once more this offseason. I nonetheless like Suarez’s changeup and suppose he would possibly, at age 28, have the ability to discover a technique to be a forty five once more with stability in an org that maxes out pitchers, which hasn’t tended to be true of the Angels. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 80 Will Smith C LAD 25.2 22.4 33 50 70 Smith was an athletic catcher at Louisville who is basically the one semi-rational argument one may make in a “Who Ought to Have Gone First within the 2016 Draft?” debate, as the opposite nice gamers (Bichette, Corbin Burnes) went later. Due to Yasmani Grandal’s presence on the massive league roster, Smith was deployed semi-regularly on the infield as he approached the massive leagues (greater than 40 video games at third base in 2019) till he seized the job. He’s been essentially the most constantly productive offensive catcher within the bigs since then, main all backstops in OBP and wRC+ since 2019, although rating third in WAR as a result of J.T. Realmuto and Cal Raleigh have been higher defenders. Gauging catchers purely by WAR will be tough as a result of the character of their job means they play fewer video games than different place gamers. Smith’s wOBA is the second better of any catcher since 2010, behind solely Buster Posey. Once more, he’s not the caliber of defender Posey was, however Smith’s bat makes him an MVP candidate at catcher, a rarity, and his grade displays that. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 83 Cole Tucker SS PIT 23.9 -2.1 DNQ 50 ORG We 50’d Tucker as a guess on his bodily projection and skill to remain at shortstop due to his arm. We thought he’d develop into extra energy in his mid-20s, sufficient to be an impression shortstop towards the tip of his pre-free company window. As an alternative he stagnated, fell down the defensive spectrum fairly shortly, and struggled to seek out large league enjoying time after the pandemic season. Folks in baseball actually like Cole, and he appears poised for an extended and profitable media profession. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 98 Josh James RHP HOU 27.3 0.6 DNQ 50 INJ James was a thirty fourth rounder out of Western Oklahoma who had a prospect breakout when he struck out 171 batters in 114.1 innings spent principally at Triple-A Fresno in 2018, his third consecutive yr with an uptick in velocity. A litany of accidents packed right into a three-year span — quadriceps, common arm fatigue, hip labrum surgical procedure, hamstring points that delayed his rehab from the hip surgical procedure, lat and again points, and eventually flexor tendon surgical procedure — derailed issues. He pitched in Puerto Rico a bit bit this offseason. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 101 Griffin Canning RHP LAA 24.1 5.2 165 50 40 Canning was evaluated as a four-pitch starter with average-or-better choices and above-average command, however his slider and changeup have turned out to be his solely good pitches, and he has struggled to throw his fastball for strikes. He’s pitched extra like a no. 5/6 starter than a mid-rotation man. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 104 Isan Díaz 2B MIA 24.0 -3.1 DNQ 50 ORG I primarily projected that Díaz’s output would look loads like what Brandon Lowe’s turned out to be. Díaz’s strikeout charges have been already within the 22-27% vary throughout a lot of his minor league profession, and that has turned out to be a dicey start line. He was a part of large trades for Jean Segura and Christian Yelich as a younger prospect, however he’s a profession .177 hitter in over 526 large league plate appearances, and has reached Triple-A journeyman standing. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 112 Garrett Hampson 2B COL 25.7 1.0 384 50 40 Hampson has had a pleasant large league profession as a speedy utility man able to enjoying three up-the-middle positions. His efficiency has tended to hover on both facet of the “substitute stage,” effectively wanting this projection, however the truth that he’s performed no less than a bit bit in every of the previous eight large league seasons is a feat by itself. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 117 Alex Verdugo RF LAD 24.1 8.0 157 50 45 Kiley and I nerfed the place we had Verdugo due to stories on his make-up. Looking back, we have been primarily quantifying his habits in a method that mentioned, “we worth these infractions as being price an 80-spot slide on a prospect record,” which afterward felt crass and icky. After this, my method has been to rank guys the place they belong primarily based on expertise alone, after which point out if there’s something probably disqualifying concerning the participant of their scouting blurb. Verdugo didn’t hit for sufficient energy to be thought of a mean nook outfielder. We ended up being much less mistaken than the opposite publications about the place we put Verdugo, however not for all the fitting causes. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 120 Peter Lambert RHP COL 23.1 0.4 DNQ 50 35+ Lambert was picked out of San Dimas Excessive Faculty in Southern California in 2015 and debuted as a 22-year-old. He amassed a 6.28 profession ERA in Colorado earlier than venturing overseas for the 2025 season, pitching for Yakult in NPB. He’s again in MLB, this time with Houston on a minor league deal. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 124 Josh Naylor 1B SDP 23.0 10.1 121 50 50 Naylor was a husky Canadian first baseman initially drafted by the Marlins. In his first full professional season, he by accident stabbed roommate Stone Garrett in what the Marlins described as a “prank gone mistaken,” after which a month later was dealt to San Diego in a commerce that grew to become controversial attributable to misleading medical report maintaining surrounding Colin Rea on the a part of the Padres, who then needed to return a soon-to-be-awesome Luis Castillo to the Marlins (he was later traded to the Reds and is now Naylor’s teammate in Seattle). Naylor ended up behind Eric Hosmer in San Diego and was traded to Cleveland as a part of an enormous Mike Clevinger deal. It took him till 2022 to interrupt out, and he’s produced like an above-average first baseman every of the final 4 years. Naylor has been a fan favourite in all places he’s been due to his intense on-field demeanor and baserunning acumen that belies his construct and athleticism. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 125 Yordan Alvarez DH HOU 23.0 23.7 30 50 65 This was far too mild a Yordan analysis to be ok with, as he has the second highest wRC+ of any certified hitter in baseball since 2019. His WAR manufacturing has suffered relative to that superlative mark as a result of he’s primarily a DH-only and has missed time with accidents. However he’s probably the most harmful hitters in baseball when wholesome and will have been stuffed within the high 10 general of this record. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 127 Sandy Alcantara RHP MIA 24.8 18.2 18 50 55 Alcantara struggled a bit with walks within the mid-minors however entered 2019 coming off three consecutive seasons with no less than 120 innings pitched. He’s constructed and strikes like an impression large league starter, and although features of his repertoire weren’t polished a this time, I had sources pleading with me to stuff him on our record as a result of he checked nearly each old style scouting field because of his supreme body and mechanics. He had a window as probably the greatest pitchers in baseball earlier than a TJ and downturn in strikeout output hampered his efficiency (and commerce worth) in 2024 and 2025. It’s why he grades out as a 55 fairly than a 60. FG Rank Identify Pos Org 2019 Age Profession WAR WAR Rank FV Precise Grade 132 Shed Lengthy Jr. 2B SEA 24.8 -0.1 DNQ 50 35 Shed was a transformed catcher who packed a fairly good punch for a hitter his measurement, and he hit effectively in a 42-game pattern as a rookie. However his strikeouts climbed in subsequent large league trials, and he lacked the defensive versatility to shift right into a utility function. He final performed affiliated ball in 2022.