Two years in the past, Zac Gallen was one of many prime pitchers in baseball. Constructing upon a breakout 2022 season through which he completed fifth within the NL Cy Younger voting, he went 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, and 5.2 WAR in 210 innings for the Diamondbacks, making his first NL All-Star group, serving to an upstart Arizona squad attain the World Sequence — the place he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his Sport 5 begin — and putting third for the Cy Younger. Since then, nevertheless, it’s been largely downhill. After hitting free company on the heels of a season through which his ERA ballooned to 4.83 and his WAR dipped to 1.1, the 30-year-old righty stays unsigned, and pitchers and catchers are resulting from report back to spring coaching camps subsequent week.
With Wednesday’s information that Framber Valdez signed a three-year, $115 million take care of the Tigers, Gallen is the one remaining free agent from among the many 9 who declined $22.025 million qualifying affords. He’s additionally the best-available participant remaining on our High 50 Free Brokers checklist — the place Ben Clemens positioned him nineteenth — however hardly the one one. The truth is, one can nearly cobble collectively a satisfactory rotation out of the starters nonetheless in the marketplace, particularly Gallen (nineteenth), Chris Bassitt (thirty fifth), Lucas Giolito (thirty sixth), Zack Littell (forty ninth), and Justin Verlander (fiftieth). They’d be a stronger unit if we turned the clock again to 2022 or ’23, however for ’26 these 5 venture to mix for 9.1 WAR, which might tie the White Sox for twenty seventh on our Depth Charts. With Valdez as an alternative of Giolito in my first draft of this text — going by 2026 projected WAR, the latter’s rating doesn’t match the place Ben positioned him — the quintet projected to supply 11.4 WAR, which might rank nineteenth, forward of three playoff groups from final yr, particularly the Cubs, Guardians, and Padres. Neither of these totals contains reinforcements who would have improved their standing a bit, since no group will get by on simply 5 starters alone.
In parallel with Tuesday’s roundup of the very best place gamers nonetheless obtainable, what follows here’s a run via the very best free agent starters who’ve but to signal. I’ll be working so as of projected WAR.
Zac Gallen, RHP (2.4 projected WAR)
As famous above, Gallen has produced diminishing returns in every of the previous two seasons. After delivering 9.4 WAR throughout 394 common season innings for the Diamondbacks in 2022–23, he totaled simply 3.9 WAR in 340 innings in ’24–25. He did throw 192 innings in 2025, tied with Valdez for eighth within the majors, however his 4.83 ERA and 4.50 FIP each ranked forty fifth out of 52 qualifiers. Since 2023, his strikeout fee has slipped from 26.0% to 21.5%, whereas his stroll fee has elevated from 5.6% to eight.1% and his dwelling run fee has spiked from 0.94 per 9 to 1.45. Nearly the one factor that saved his ERA under 5.00 was an improved contact profile, together with his xwOBACON dropping from .410 to .374.
Whereas Gallen’s four-seam fastball hasn’t misplaced any velocity, each of our pitch modeling techniques see his stuff as notably diminished. Not solely has he gotten fewer swings and misses prior to now two years than earlier than, however batters are making extra contact in opposition to him within the zone; the truth is, his 91.2% zone contact fee was the best amongst qualifiers. By Statcast’s run values, his changeup was his solely above-average secondary pitch.
In accordance to the New York Submit’s Jon Heyman, the Diamondbacks stay within the combine for Gallen’s companies, together with the Cubs and Orioles, with the Angels and Padres having checked in on him as properly. Maybe he can rebuild worth with a change of surroundings and a pillow contract; in any occasion, a short-term deal appears possible provided that solely two starters, Dylan Stop and Ranger Suárez, have signed for longer than three years this winter.
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Chris Bassitt, RHP (2.0 projected WAR)
Bassitt is about as constant as they arrive. For the fourth yr in a row, he made at the least 30 begins, struck out simply over 22% of batters, completed with a barely better-than-average FIP, and totaled between 2-3 WAR. On this case, he put up a 3.96 ERA and 4.01 FIP in 170 1/3 innings, offsetting an increase in dwelling run fee (from 0.95 per 9 to 1.16) with a drop in stroll fee (from an anomalously excessive 9.2% to 7.1%). Irritation in his decrease again knocked him off the Blue Jays’ roster for the Division Sequence, and he spent the remainder of the postseason pitching out of the bullpen. He did fairly properly in that capability, permitting only one run and three hits in 8 2/3 innings whereas placing out 10.
Bassitt roughly replicated his current performances regardless of his common sinker velocity dropping from 92.5 mph in 2024 to 91.6 in ’25. He’ll flip 37 on February 22 and his stuff is trending downward, however to this point he’s confirmed the power to adapt. Whereas he expressed a want to return to the Blue Jays after they misplaced the World Sequence, the additions of Stop and Cody Ponce together with the return of Shane Bieber (who exercised his participant possibility) have in all probability shut that door. The Braves and Tigers have proven curiosity, although the addition of Valdez possible means Detroit’s looking for a full-time starter is completed.
Nick Martinez, RHP (1.9 projected WAR)
Although he set profession highs in begins (26) and innings (165 2/3, with 20 2/3 coming in 14 appearances as a reliever), Martinez’s second season in Cincinnati was inferior to his first. Each his 4.45 ERA and 4.31 FIP have been over a run larger than in 2024, as his strikeout fee slipped from 20.4% to 17.0%, his stroll fee practically doubled from 3.2% to six.1%, and his dwelling run fee spiked from 0.82 per 9 to 1.20. Batters gained practically two miles per hour in common exit velocity in opposition to him relative to 2024 whereas including 38 factors of slugging share in opposition to his slider, 40 in opposition to his cutter, 98 in opposition to his changeup, and (gulp) 186 in opposition to his fastball.
As his current manufacturing (3.4 WAR in 2024, 2.1 in ’25) and present projection counsel, the 35-year-old Martinez remains to be a really helpful pitcher who can assist both behind the rotation or within the bullpen, the place he’s put up a 2.07 ERA and three.21 FIP in 74 innings over the previous two seasons. The Yankees and Tigers have been linked to him, however most pitching staffs might in all probability discover room.
Justin Verlander, RHP (1.7 projected WAR)
There have been factors final season when it regarded as if the longer term Corridor of Famer is likely to be cooked. In spite of everything, the 42-year-old Verlander was coming off a 5.48 ERA in 90 1/3 innings with the Astros in 2024, having moreover missed over two months resulting from a neck harm. By July 18 of final yr, he had gone 0-8 with a 4.99 ERA and 4.29 FIP for the Giants whereas placing out solely 18.9% of hitters. Winless, and up in opposition to an opponent — Father Time — who stays undefeated.
Lo and behold, Verlander pulled it collectively by making a number of changes, shifting towards the third base aspect of the rubber, pulling the ball from his glove earlier in his supply, elevating his launch level, dialing again using his fastball, and integrating a newish sweeper in opposition to which batters hit simply .053 and slugged .105. He put up a 2.60 ERA and three.36 FIP with a 22.8% strikeout fee in 72 2/3 innings over his remaining 13 turns, making him one of many majors’ 20 most dear starters over that span.
Final September, Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey expressed curiosity in bringing Verlander again. Contemplating he’s 43 years outdated, Verlander would match San Francisco’s present modus operandi of short-term offers, however the two sides apparently haven’t discovered widespread floor. The one different group to which he has been publicly linked is the Orioles, whose president of baseball operations Mike Elias is aware of Verlander from their time collectively in Houston. Because the Orioles had been one of many groups linked to Valdez, the autumn of that domino could imply Verlander has a gap. A method or one other, anticipate him to pitch someplace in 2026.
Zack Littell, RHP (1.7 projected WAR)
The 30-year-old Littell has solely two seasons of full-time beginning expertise underneath his belt. He’s developed right into a solid-but-unspectacular backend starter, one who doesn’t miss many bats however has proven pinpoint command and a capability to keep away from laborious contact utilizing a slider/splitter/four-seam/sinker repertoire. In a season cut up between the Rays and Reds, he posted a 3.81 ERA and 4.88 FIP in 186 2/3 innings throughout a full complement of 32 begins. Whereas he struck out simply 17.1% of the hitters he confronted (sixth lowest amongst qualifiers), his 4.2% stroll fee was the very best within the majors.
Sadly, Littell’s 1.74 homers per 9 allowed was the second-highest mark amongst qualifiers. Transferring out of the AL East — he served up 12 of his 36 homers over simply 23 2/3 innings in Boston and Toronto — might assist, although to this point the one reported curiosity in him has been a doable reunion with the Rays. Anyone reduce this man a break!
Max Scherzer, RHP (1.4 projected WAR)
As with Verlander, at instances through the 2025 season it appeared that Scherzer was carried out. Within the first half of his age-40 season with the Blue Jays, he missed practically three full months resulting from irritation in his proper thumb, and ended up making simply 17 begins totaling 85 innings, that on the heels of a season through which he made simply 9 begins. Although he did string collectively 5 straight high quality begins in opposition to a relatively robust slate in late July and August, he by no means bought his FIP under 4.50, and completed the season with a 5.19 ERA and 4.99 FIP, each profession worsts. He put up the majors’ highest ERA within the first inning (12.96), had points with tipping pitches, and after permitting eight homers and 25 runs in his remaining 25 innings, missed the reduce for Toronto’s Division Sequence roster. Regardless of going three weeks between begins, he turned in a gritty 5 2/3-inning effort in opposition to the Mariners in Sport 4 of the ALCS, together with two wobblier outings within the World Sequence in opposition to the Dodgers.
After the Blue Jays’ loss, Scherzer stated he plans to pitch in 2026. Extra just lately, he informed The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that whereas he’s wholesome and able to signal with the proper group, he might wait till after Opening Day to take action, à la Roger Clemens circa 2007.
Lucas Giolito, RHP (1.3 projected WAR)
After lacking all of 2024 and the primary month of ’25 following a UCL inner bace process, Giolito made a profitable return, posting a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings for the Purple Sox. One other elbow harm — described vaguely as “flexor irritation and a bone difficulty” — prevented him from pitching within the postseason and led the Purple Sox to name upon a rookie who’d made simply 4 main league begins, Connelly Early, in an elimination sport. “[W]ithin three days, my elbow felt one hundred pc advantageous once more,” Giolito informed WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford in November.
For as superficially spectacular as Giolito’s ERA was, it was far forward of each his FIP (4.17) and his xERA (4.99), which comes as a priority. His 19.7% strikeout fee was six factors under his mark from a messy 2023, and practically 13 factors under his full-season finest from ’19. In the meantime, his 90.3-mph common exit velocity, 9% barrel fee, and 41.1% hard-hit fee have been all subpar, with percentile rankings starting from the twenty second to the forty fifth. The excellent news was that at the least he saved the ball within the park, reducing his dwelling run fee from a ghastly 2.00 per 9 in 2023 to 1.06 in ’25.
Whereas Giolito had expressed thinking about returning to the Purple Sox, he acknowledged that the late-season harm could have spooked them, they usually seem to have moved on with out him. As of final month, the 31-year-old righty had reportedly acquired curiosity from the Orioles, Braves, and Tigers.