It took all the way in which till February, however the previous couple of free company dominos are beginning to fall. The Reds had been one of many first groups to dip their toes into the market this winter, signing Emilio Pagán to a two-year deal at first of December. Now they’ve made it a bookend set – over the weekend, they signed Eugenio Suárez to a one-year, $15 million deal, as first reported by Jeff Passan.
I missed excessive on my contract estimate for Suárez. I had him down for 2 years at $25 million a yr, whereas our crowdsourced projections thought he’d get three years at $20 million every. The bottom public-facing projection I discovered for him was two years at $22.5 million per. In different phrases, Suárez settled for lower than predicted, and he signed late consequently. It’s a basic instance of the truth that free brokers who signal later signal for much less.
At a top-line stage, seeing Suárez signal for this little is shocking. He isn’t some flash within the pan looking for a 10-year deal. He’s been the most effective energy hitters in baseball for fairly some time now. The 2025 season was the fourth out of the final 5 the place he’s topped 30 homers. He socked 49 whereas spending half the yr in a house run graveyard in Seattle, although he did most of his injury earlier than the commerce; he posted a 91 wRC+ as a Mariner. Groups pay for projection, not efficiency, however Suárez’s wRC+ during the last three years is healthier than his profession mark. However that energy didn’t overwhelm a number of different query marks.
At 34, Suárez is squarely headed into the again half of his profession. He simply posted his highest swinging strike fee ever, on the again of swinging greater than ever. He tied for a career-low contact fee, too. In different phrases, he took huge swings extra usually, with all of the related upsides and drawbacks. That led to a cratering stroll fee, a low on-base share, and sure, 49 homers. In my projection, I appeared on the energy vs. contact steadiness and located myself swayed extra by the facility facet, however I don’t assume I used to be the one prognosticator who shaved my estimate down for the chance. You’ll be able to strike out 30% of the time and nonetheless produce, however that’s a harmful sport; whiff too often, and the entire thing can collapse in a short time.
I’ve all the time had hassle telling whether or not Suárez is growing older nicely or poorly. He has Twenty fifth-percentile dash velocity – that feels like he’s declining. However that dash velocity is definitely quicker than the mark he posted in 2018 and 2019, and he hit 83 homers with a 132 wRC+ and eight.8 WAR in these years. His bat velocity isn’t spectacular for an influence hitter – 53rd percentile, 72.3 mph on common. However that’s the identical mark he’s had in every of the three seasons we have now bat monitoring for. He’s had an outdated man’s sport since he was younger, in different phrases, and that makes modeling this a lot trickier. His protection has fallen from plus to sketchy, however that’s really occurred earlier than in his profession, albeit because of a poorly-planned try and pivot to shortstop. Modeling that may be even tougher – if he’s going to play protection this season, that’s.
ZiPS and Steamer, ever the accountable forecasts, are taking a down-the-middle method to his projection. They’ve him down for a 111 wRC+, a small decline from what he’s accomplished the previous three years, however one which’s fully in step with growing older curves. They assume he’ll strike out a ton, stroll just a little, and sock 35 homers in cozy Cincinnati. Certain, we’re projecting him as a full-time DH, which eats into his WAR just a little bit, however even then, the fashions say that this can be a good cope with upside.
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In the event you had advised the Reds they’d signal Suárez for much less assured cash than it took to land Pagán earlier than this offseason began, they wouldn’t have believed you. Nobody would have. However among the many free company grocery store’s numerous aisles are two labeled “dudes we wish” and “bargains,” and the Reds shopped in “dudes we wish” for Pagán’s deal. They signed him proper in the beginning of the winter and gave him a participant choice to differentiate their provide from different golf equipment. I wasn’t wild about that signing, however I understood it: They wanted a more in-depth, they’d a restricted funds, and getting the man they favored on a deal that’s nonetheless petite within the grand scheme of issues, even when it’s greater than he was projected for, looks like a strong compromise.
The flip facet of that coin is that in case you’d be pleased to signal all kinds of gamers and are prepared to attend, you would possibly land somebody for a lot lower than anticipated. The Reds have sufficient interesting-but-not-overwhelming place gamers that they might accommodate hitters at all kinds of positions – nobody’s changing Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, however all the pieces else feels negotiable to me. That implies that they might scour the whole inhabitants of hitters for offers, and that’s simply what they did.
With defensive whiz Ke’Bryan Hayes at third, Suárez slots cleanly into DH right here. But when Hayes misses time, would you be shocked to see Suárez again within the discipline? I definitely wouldn’t – and ZiPS, whose defensive projections I like finest, has him down as a median third baseman this yr. In different phrases, he’s an ideal match for the Reds, and fairly actually, he may need been the one difference-maker left. This a lot offense, for that little cash? I like Suárez much more than the opposite obtainable choices. It’s even higher that he was a longtime Purple and that his offensive sport fits the park nicely. Actually, this seems like a serendipitous deal.
Now for just a few caveats. Once I investigated the efficiency of late signers final yr, I discovered that gamers who signal late within the winter present much less per-dollar worth than their early-signing counterparts. I didn’t look right into a trigger, however it’s not onerous to intuit what’s occurring: The sign of no group placing that participant within the “dudes we wish” bucket is significant, or on the very least, gamers who stick round available on the market some time achieve this as a result of groups had affordable reservations about them. To place it within the phrases I utilized in that article:
Groups which are making an attempt to wring probably the most out of a restricted free company funds most likely shouldn’t wait out the market and try and signal whoever is left on the finish, even when the contract they signal represents a group low cost in comparison with pre-offseason expectations. These gamers would possibly command decrease salaries, however additionally they carry out worse. If effectivity is the aim and marquee free brokers are off the desk, the info recommend that nearly any time is healthier than the very finish of the offseason so as to add new gamers.
Now, that conclusion is a couple of broad mixture. Loads of late signers have been higher than anticipated. The truth that his cohort has carried out poorly on the entire isn’t meaningless, although. It makes me need to shade Suárez’s projections down. Most groups may use energy in a can, and but none of them beat one yr and $15 million. Perhaps they’re too risk-averse. Virtually definitely they’re too risk-averse, in reality: There are 30 groups and just one AJ Preller. However not incorporating that data appears foolish. It has to imply one thing.
An affordable counterpoint is that groups actually are fairly risk-averse, and that Suárez is a very risky-feeling participant. He’s already been wage dumped twice in his profession – first to Seattle as wage ballast in a commerce for Jesse Winker, then to Arizona after the Mariners acquired one other third baseman within the offseason and had been wanting to save cash themselves. The lows are low, in different phrases. In fact, the highs are excessive too, and groups appear to love the expertise: The Mariners traded for him once more final summer season, and the Reds simply re-signed him. However regardless that Suárez appears to place up 3.5 WAR yearly, he’s a whole curler coaster in how he will get there, and we have now good proof that groups react poorly to that variance.
Extra caveats: Suárez’s match with Nice American Ball Park can’t be ignored. His lift-and-pull method – he’s hit extra fly balls than grounders in every of the final seven seasons, and he pulls the crap out of the ball too – is a superb match for the second-homer-happiest park in baseball. In the event you play in Cincy, you have to be enjoying a homer-centric sport, as a result of the park doesn’t tilt notably far in the direction of offense regardless of the convenience of hitting homers. In different phrases, you need your group to be stuffed with dudes who get on base after which a bunch of Suárez sorts. Fairly handy to get the real article on a pillow contract, then.
How a lot does this have an effect on the group’s playoff probabilities? Boy, Suárez signed at a good time for me to reply that query. Due to writing in regards to the preliminary launch of our playoff odds this morning, I’ve a tough copy of what the percentages appeared like Friday night, earlier than this signing. Including Suárez moved the Reds from 77.1 to 77.6 projected wins, and from a 13.9% likelihood of creating the playoffs to a 15.6% likelihood. Ho hum, in different phrases.
I just like the signing greater than that. I feel we underestimate his affect as a result of we had Spencer Steer plugged in at DH, and Steer seems like a strong main leaguer, which means that Suárez was upgrading from a high-ish ground. However Steer was unlikely to be a full-time DH in actuality, as a result of the Reds have a squad full of men with damage and availability issues. His precise place in 2026 was shaping as much as be a mix of first, DH, and the outfield corners. Now he’s extra of a brilliant sub and platoon bat. In different phrases, the Reds’ finest beginning lineup won’t have modified a lot, however their depth will get quite a bit higher with Suárez on the roster.
Fold all of that collectively, and I discover myself a fan of this deal, albeit not as a lot of 1 as I’d have been earlier than I noticed Suárez sit available on the market for just a few months. There are actual issues about how he’ll age, and 2025 did have quite a lot of purple flags. However the Reds obtained a reduction for that. How a lot of a reduction continues to be an open query, however there’s little doubt that he’s a significantly better guess to hit in 2026 than the alternate options who’re nonetheless round. Between the homecoming vibes and the pleasant park dimensions, I wouldn’t even be all that shocked by a resurgent season that beats our projections, although possibly that’s simply my heat and fuzzy coronary heart talking somewhat than my chilly analytical mind.
Most significantly, the Reds are in a spot on the win curve the place strikes like these matter most. They made the playoffs in 2025 and introduced again most of their finest gamers from that run. A full season from Hunter Greene beckons. Higher-70s win totals don’t make the playoffs; lower-80s win totals usually do. Was this the right signing? Time will inform. The long run is unknown and unknowable; we will solely guess at possibilities. However making a signing was clearly vital, and the Reds obtained a consensus prime 20 free agent with connections to the franchise for a one-year pittance. How are you going to say it’s something aside from an excellent job?