In case you missed them, the 2026 ZiPS projections are now formally within the web site’s projection database to your delight (or disdain), and replicate all the signings and trades which have transpired this offseason. There’s nonetheless every week and a half to go earlier than pitchers and catchers report, however with the complete set of projections accessible, and it being so chilly and snowy exterior that I’ve little want to go away my home, this appeared like an excellent alternative to run the primary set of ZiPS projected standings for the 2026 season. These, after all, aren’t the ultimate projected standings, as there are more likely to be vital adjustments between now and Opening Day. As an alternative, consider them because the “state of the preseason” projections.
These standings are the results of one million simulations, not outcomes obtained from binomial and even beta-binomial magic. The methodology isn’t similar to the one we use for our Playoff Odds, which can launch quickly. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Saved inside ZiPS are the first- by 99th-percentile projections for every participant. I begin by making a generalized depth chart, utilizing our Depth Charts as a leaping off level. Since these are my curated projections, I make adjustments primarily based on my private emotions about who will obtain enjoying time as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my reasoned understanding of every staff. ZiPS then generates one million variations of every staff in Monte Carlo trend.
After that’s carried out, ZiPS applies one other set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of damage threat that adjustments the baseline plate appearances or innings pitched for every participant. ZiPS then mechanically and proportionally “fills in” enjoying time from the following gamers on the checklist to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings.
The result’s one million completely different rosters for every staff and an related profitable share for every considered one of them. After making use of the brand new energy of schedule calculations primarily based on the opposite 29 groups, I find yourself with the standings for every of the million seasons. I promise that is a lot much less advanced than it sounds.
The purpose of ZiPS is to be much less terrible than every other method of predicting the longer term. The longer term is tantalizingly shut, however basically past our data, and if anybody figures out the right way to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddington’s arrow of time, it’s in all probability not going to return within the type of baseball projections. So we venture chances, not certainties. If that doesn’t fulfill you, simply assume that any deviation from the precise outcomes is because of flaws in actuality.
Over the past decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.1 appropriate groups when wanting on the Vegas preseason over/below traces. I’m all the time tinkering with methodology, however many of the low-hanging fruit in predicting how groups will carry out has already been harvested. ZiPS’ misses for groups from yr to yr are uncorrelated, with an r-squared of 1 yr’s miss to the following of 0.000557. In different phrases, not one of the year-to-year misses for particular person franchises have informed us something about future misses for these franchises.
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Additionally do not forget that these are median standings, that means that they signify each staff’s Fiftieth-percentile projection. These have a tighter vary than the precise standings as a result of we don’t anticipate each staff to hit their Fiftieth-percentile projection, however quite for 3 groups, on common, to beat their Ninetieth-percentile projection, six to beat their Eightieth-percentile projection, and so forth. The best median win complete projected within the AL Central proper now could be 83 wins, however that’s very completely different than projecting that the very best staff within the AL Central will win 83 video games. In actual fact, the AL Central winner within the simulation averages 90.5 wins!
So let’s get to the standings, beginning with the AL East:
ZiPS Projections – AL East Median Standings (1/29)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | Eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 90 | 72 | — | .556 | 32.1% | 40.5% | 72.6% | 4.8% | 99.8 | 82.9 |
| Boston Purple Sox | 90 | 72 | — | .556 | 25.8% | 46.7% | 72.5% | 4.9% | 97.7 | 83.2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 88 | 74 | 2 | .543 | 22.2% | 39.5% | 61.7% | 5.8% | 97.3 | 79.8 |
| New York Yankees | 87 | 75 | 3 | .537 | 18.9% | 41.4% | 60.3% | 5.4% | 96.0 | 79.7 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 75 | 87 | 15 | .463 | 1.1% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 0.5% | 82.6 | 67.5 |
ZiPS doesn’t see the AL East all that in a different way from the way it did final preseason, although it does anticipate a barely bigger separation on the high of the division, with the Jays and Purple Sox tied for first, and the Orioles and Yankees falling a few video games again. There’s a distinction within the projection profiles of the Purple Sox and Jays, nevertheless. Regardless of the identical median win projection, ZiPS sees the Purple Sox with a really barely higher draw back on account of their depth and suppleness, whereas the Blue Jays have extra high-end uncertainty. If the Blue Jays roll excessive on George Springer and Anthony Santander, Trey Yesavage is nearly as good as he has been in his transient skilled historical past, and we get both an MVP model of Vladito or an Andrés Giménez who rediscovers his early offensive potential, this staff is probably the most harmful one within the American League. The Orioles haven’t added a high-end pitcher, however they’ve added some stability, and the lineup appears to be like strong.
The Rays nonetheless venture to have a good probability to make the playoffs — they make the playoff extra usually in simulations than Aaron Choose hits a house run in any given at-bat — however ZiPS simply doesn’t see their upside matching the opposite groups within the division.
Shifting to the Central:
ZiPS Projections – AL Central Median Standings (1/29)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | Eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 83 | 79 | — | .512 | 36.7% | 12.6% | 49.3% | 2.4% | 91.9 | 76.0 |
| Kansas Metropolis Royals | 83 | 79 | — | .512 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 44.9% | 2.5% | 90.7 | 75.3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 79 | 83 | 4 | .488 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 30.9% | 2.1% | 87.6 | 71.8 |
| Minnesota Twins | 77 | 85 | 6 | .475 | 10.7% | 8.2% | 19.0% | 1.1% | 84.2 | 69.6 |
| Chicago White Sox | 69 | 93 | 14 | .426 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 75.8 | 63.1 |
The AL Central is a reasonably low-ceiling atmosphere, so every staff has some life like probability to prevail. The Tigers are good, however their lineup is brief on precise stars, and the pure threat of pitcher damage signifies that they don’t get 100% Tarik Skubal in a variety of their simulations. And with out 100% Skubal, this staff appears to be like rather a lot much less intimidating. The Royals have some holes, however the left facet of the infield is crazy-good and the pitching is on comparatively secure floor. The Guardians have lineup considerations and a quite low-impact, although secure, beginning rotation, and ZiPS doesn’t consider the Twins are wherever close to as unhealthy as a lot of baseball thinks.
The division is weak sufficient that there’s even an opportunity that the White Sox steal the factor. The staff isn’t truly good for the time being, however not like final season, they haven’t larded the April lineup with a bunch of older retreads. Each beginning hitter, with the possible exception of Andrew Benintendi, has some cognizable breakout potential. Taking a threat like signing Munetaka Murakami is precisely what the White Sox must be doing, and I don’t usually say the White Sox are doing precisely what the White Sox must be doing. To the West:
ZiPS Projections – AL West Median Standings (1/29)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | Eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 88 | 74 | — | .543 | 46.6% | 22.2% | 68.8% | 6.0% | 96.9 | 81.6 |
| Houston Astros | 87 | 75 | 1 | .537 | 35.4% | 23.7% | 59.1% | 6.8% | 95.0 | 79.1 |
| Texas Rangers | 80 | 82 | 8 | .494 | 12.1% | 16.9% | 29.0% | 2.0% | 88.1 | 72.2 |
| Oakland A’s | 74 | 88 | 14 | .457 | 5.2% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 0.3% | 83.5 | 66.7 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 68 | 94 | 20 | .420 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 75.8 | 60.6 |
ZiPS tasks the Mariners to be the category of the division, however it will warn you to not write off the Astros, even with out Framber Valdez. This isn’t the world beating staff of the late 2010s, however the ‘Stros are largely devoid of great holes, although there are actual depth considerations that would come again to chew them.
Including MacKenzie Gore undoubtedly improves Texas’ rotation, and I’m glad he in all probability gained’t should undergo one other undeserved 5-15 document, however ZiPS nonetheless sees the Rangers as being too middling offensively and too mediocre in aid to flee baseball’s center class. It was good to see Jacob deGrom wholesome in 2025, however ZiPS doesn’t need to financial institution on that.
The A’s do have postseason potential, as ZiPS thinks that they’ve a playoff-caliber offense, and the projections take an enormous bounce when a few the beginning pitchers determine issues out. Sadly, the pc simply doesn’t see rather a lot to suggest the Los Angeles Angels right now.
Shifting to the Nationwide League, starting with the NL East:
ZiPS Projections – NL East Median Standings (1/29)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | Eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 91 | 71 | — | .562 | 40.0% | 31.6% | 71.5% | 7.6% | 99.9 | 82.4 |
| New York Mets | 89 | 73 | 2 | .549 | 31.7% | 34.3% | 65.9% | 6.1% | 97.6 | 81.0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 86 | 76 | 5 | .531 | 23.8% | 31.6% | 55.4% | 5.8% | 95.9 | 77.2 |
| Miami Marlins | 76 | 86 | 15 | .469 | 4.5% | 15.0% | 19.5% | 0.2% | 85.5 | 67.6 |
| Washington Nationals | 63 | 99 | 28 | .389 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 71.9 | 54.9 |
The Phillies’ core is pretty previous, so this staff isn’t inevitable, although ZiPS nonetheless thinks they’re the one to guess on in 2026. ZiPS expects a bounce-back season from Aaron Nola, and rather a lot will come down to simply how wholesome and efficient Zack Wheeler is. If Wheeler will get again on monitor rapidly, the Phils ought to have the ability to shrug off Ranger Suárez’s departure pretty successfully. Andrew Painter’s projections aren’t thrilling, however he does have vital upside remaining.
Regardless of the lack of Pete Alonso, ZiPS thinks the Mets had a fairly efficient offseason. The sensation of impending catastrophe is only a attribute of the franchise. The Braves should have a greater season, however there’s merely extra uncertainty and a bit much less upside than there was when this staff was cruising alongside. Turning to the Central:
ZiPS Projections – NL Central Median Standings (1/29)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | Eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 87 | 75 | — | .537 | 42.1% | 20.5% | 62.5% | 5.0% | 95.4 | 80.1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 86 | 76 | 1 | .531 | 40.3% | 20.9% | 61.2% | 4.5% | 95.2 | 79.7 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 78 | 84 | 9 | .481 | 6.9% | 11.6% | 18.5% | 0.6% | 84.7 | 70.5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 77 | 85 | 10 | .475 | 6.3% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 0.6% | 84.3 | 69.8 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 74 | 88 | 13 | .457 | 4.4% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 0.4% | 82.5 | 67.1 |
ZiPS doesn’t see a variety of large adjustments on this division in comparison with final season. The Brewers have moved a bit within the projections, wanting robust even with out Freddy Peralta largely as a result of I’m giving extra enjoying time to the gamers ZiPS likes than I often do, as my failure to take action has been the largest cause the system has underestimated Milwaukee lately. I do not know what projection programs the Brewers care about, however they offer a variety of enjoying time to stunning guys who ZiPS likes, and it has principally labored out for them. The Cubs stay very robust, with ZiPS primarily involved concerning the rotation.
ZiPS sees the remaining three groups as all having severe sufficient issues that they’d want a variety of issues to go their option to threaten the Brewers and the Cubs. Each the Reds and Pirates are in the direction of the underside of baseball in projected worth from their beginning lineups, and the Cardinals, whereas pretty secure, merely lack a number of the high-end potential that the opposite two also-rans have in gamers like Paul Skenes and Elly De La Cruz. Lastly, the West:
ZiPS Projections – NL West Median Standings (1/29)
| Workforce | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | Eightieth | twentieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 96 | 66 | — | .593 | 68.9% | 22.8% | 91.7% | 18.2% | 103.7 | 89.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 84 | 78 | 12 | .519 | 14.6% | 35.5% | 50.1% | 1.6% | 93.4 | 77.5 |
| San Diego Padres | 83 | 79 | 13 | .512 | 10.0% | 31.9% | 41.9% | 2.8% | 91.3 | 75.9 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 81 | 81 | 15 | .500 | 6.5% | 25.0% | 31.5% | 2.0% | 89.0 | 73.3 |
| Colorado Rockies | 61 | 101 | 35 | .377 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 68.5 | 53.8 |
The Dodgers are nonetheless the category of the division, however their invincibility has been vastly overrated. That they gained the final two World Collection championships doesn’t imply they have been overwhelming favorites to take action. However hey, that is the very best projection in baseball, so one can hardly complain an excessive amount of.
ZiPS stays uncertain of Arizona’s rotation, and doesn’t see it taking a lot in the way in which of beginning pitcher accidents for the wheels to fall off the Padres. The Giants should have a fairly invaluable lineup, however their rotation has severe questions of its personal after Logan Webb. I believe the Rockies are doing a variety of what they should do, and have for the final yr or so, however we’re nonetheless seeing the long-term results of simply how wrecked the group was throughout the Jeff Bridich period. I’m optimistic about Paul DePodesta’s operation long-term, however proper now, they’re nonetheless the equal of the contestant on Prime Chef whose secret ingredient within the upcoming problem is revealed to be fitness center socks. It’s going to be a whereas till this staff is nice. However hey, their playoff likelihood doesn’t spherical to 0%!
ZiPS Playoff Matrix – 2026 (1/29)
| To Win | tenth | twentieth | thirtieth | fortieth | Fiftieth | sixtieth | seventieth | Eightieth | Ninetieth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL East | 91.2 | 93.9 | 95.9 | 97.6 | 99.2 | 100.8 | 102.5 | 104.4 | 107.2 |
| AL Central | 82.8 | 85.4 | 87.3 | 89.0 | 90.5 | 92.1 | 93.8 | 95.8 | 98.5 |
| AL West | 85.9 | 88.6 | 90.6 | 92.4 | 94.1 | 95.8 | 97.6 | 99.8 | 102.8 |
| AL Wild Card 1 | 88.1 | 89.9 | 91.3 | 92.5 | 93.7 | 95.0 | 96.3 | 97.8 | 100.1 |
| AL Wild Card 2 | 84.8 | 86.4 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.6 | 90.6 | 91.8 | 93.2 | 95.1 |
| AL Wild Card 3 | 82.2 | 83.7 | 84.8 | 85.8 | 86.7 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.8 | 91.5 |
| NL East | 88.7 | 91.8 | 94.1 | 96.0 | 97.8 | 99.6 | 101.5 | 103.7 | 106.7 |
| NL Central | 85.3 | 87.9 | 89.8 | 91.5 | 93.2 | 94.9 | 96.8 | 98.9 | 101.9 |
| NL West | 90.2 | 92.8 | 94.8 | 96.6 | 98.3 | 100.1 | 102.0 | 104.3 | 107.6 |
| NL Wild Card 1 | 88.1 | 89.9 | 91.3 | 92.5 | 93.6 | 94.8 | 96.1 | 97.6 | 99.9 |
| NL Wild Card 2 | 84.7 | 86.3 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.6 | 90.6 | 91.7 | 93.0 | 94.7 |
| NL Wild Card 3 | 82.1 | 83.7 | 84.8 | 85.8 | 86.7 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.8 | 91.4 |
That’s all for now! I’ll run one other replace as soon as spring coaching begins in a number of weeks. Hopefully a number of the remaining free brokers will discover new properties earlier than then.