2026 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The group order is chosen by lot, and the final word group is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

For those who appeared up “.500 group” within the dictionary, you’d discover, nicely, nothing. THAT’S NOT HOW DICTIONARIES WORK. But when they did have intensive listings of colloquialisms and an editor obsessive about baseball, you would possibly see the 2025 Cardinals. Regardless of not falling behind by double digits within the NL Central race till late within the season, the Cardinals definitely by no means felt like they have been ever realistically in any playoff race. On the similar time, they have been additionally by no means sufficient of a doormat group to be attention-grabbing out of ineptitude. The Playing cards spent the season principally enjoying out the string, in baseball limbo whereas followers waited out the swan tune yr of government vice-president John Mozeliak, with many of the curiosity surrounding when/if numerous veterans could be traded.

Whereas roughly a .500-looking group has some wild card upside, St. Louis has the look of a group with an extremely low ceiling within the brief time period, like on the extent of that room close to the beginning of Willy Wonka’s manufacturing facility tour. Solely Masyn Winn is a excessive risk to place up a 4-WAR season, and he’s already at that stage, not somebody who can escape to that stage. However aside from proper discipline, since ZiPS has lengthy since thrown within the towel on Jordan Walker, the Cardinals additionally aren’t unhealthy anyplace of their lineup, both. Brendan Donovan is extraordinarily versatile, however he may very well be traded someday through the season, if not earlier than then, and gamers like Nolan Gorman and JJ Wetherholt may also acquire plate appearances enjoying a wide range of positions. Wetherholt’s first full skilled season was a dynamite one, and he will get a powerful projection coming into his first yr within the large leagues. ZiPS at the least sees him as an improve on the departed Nolan Arenado in 2026.

ZiPS thinks Lars Nootbaar continues to be younger sufficient to bounce again from an actual down season in 2025. When which will occur, although, is an open query. Final fall, he had surgical procedure to shave down his heels to treatment his Haglund’s deformities, and studying the primary half of this sentence makes me surprise if my mind has truly lastly misplaced its final reference to actuality. Nootbaar’s lack of potential to do a lot towards lefties limits his upside, however like many of the remainder of the group, he’ll be… fantastic. Additionally in that wide selection of adequacy is Victor Scott II, who performs protection nicely sufficient as of late to hold his abysmal offense, and Alec Burleson at first, who wants a lefty-crushing platoon accomplice, although he did enhance some towards southpaws final season. The Cardinals’ catching state of affairs may very well be actually attention-grabbing, relying on when and if Iván Herrera will get again to enjoying catcher. Even when he doesn’t, he’s proven he’s a adequate participant to have worth as a DH, and Pedro Pagés hits simply sufficient that he’s not an issue beginning behind the plate.

Fortunately, the mid- and long-term outlooks for St. Louis are sunnier. Wetherholt has already been talked about, however ZiPS thinks each Jimmy Crooks and Leonardo Bernal may maintain their very own as main league catchers. Joshua Baez has a powerful long-term ZiPS projection, and the pc sees him as somebody who may (and may) exchange Walker if/when the previous prime prospect doesn’t come round.

Pitchers

As with the beginning lineup, the Playing cards appear like they’re going to have a really deep rotation, however one which’s nearly mindblowingly common. Michael McGreevy has the perfect projected ERA of the starters, which ought to inform you numerous concerning the state of the rotation. For those who consider ZiPS, St. Louis may discipline about three main league rotations of beginning pitchers with an ERA+ someplace within the 90s. So there’s not plenty of distinction between the blokes now we have as getting the majority of the innings on the depth chart (Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Dustin Might, Kyle Leahy, Richard Fitts), and the blokes who aren’t (Quinn Mathews, Tink Therefore, Hunter Dobbins, Ixan Henderson, Tekoah Roby if not for the Tommy John surgical procedure). In different phrases, this group most likely gained’t crack the highest 10 in beginning pitcher WAR, however there are sufficient spares that it doubtless gained’t be a humiliation, both.

Whereas that’s not nice for the group’s probabilities to contend in 2026, that does recommend a path to long-term advantages. The deep steady of no. 3 and no. 4 starters is decidedly on the younger aspect, all of their 20s, and at the least a few of them must grow to be one thing higher. Mathews might be the perfect candidate to take action, as is Therefore, though there’s an affordable likelihood that the latter pitches out of the bullpen within the brief time period. Liam Doyle didn’t get an official projection right here due to his lack {of professional} expertise, but when I instruct ZiPS to make use of his school translations, he has an excellent long-term outlook, too.

ZiPS initiatives the bullpen as beneath common, however not in dumpster-fire territory. The pc solely actually likes three relievers, JoJo Romero, Matt Svanson, and Gordon Graceffo, and a fourth if you happen to consider the Playing cards will use Therefore in reduction in 2026. Exterior of that quartet, there are plenty of guys with projected ERAs simply above 4 in reduction, firmly in C- territory. It’s most likely not fairly this unhealthy, because the multitude of beginning pitching choices means the pen will get some reinforcements if the highest starters are wholesome, so somebody like Leahy may find yourself right here in any case. In any case, this can be a middling bullpen, one which most likely gained’t strategy the manufacturing of final yr’s unit, which had the ninth-best reduction WAR in baseball.

All instructed, ZiPS sees St. Louis as, you guessed it, a couple of .500 group.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate group projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 as a result of harm, and gamers who have been launched in 2025. So sure, if you happen to see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Steel band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected group WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how rapidly a group will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.