Each single staff has performed at the very least 17 video games, so we’re beginning to get a clearer image of what is in play for the 2026 NCAA Match. There are actually 17 groups with a 100% probability of moving into the sphere, per Bart Torvik’s simulations. We’ll name them locks as a result of it might take one thing tragic within the final seven weeks for these golf equipment to not dance.
LOCKS
- Huge 12: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech
- Huge Ten: Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State
- ACC: Duke, Virginia
- Huge East: UConn
- SEC: Florida, Vanderbilt
- WCC: Gonzaga
Let’s dive into the nice, unhealthy and ugly for six fascinating resumes, together with some early classes discovered concerning the worth of highway wins.
Alabama
Present CBS Sports activities’ bracketology projection: No. 5 seed
Alabama could be 13-5, however Nate Oats’ aggressive scheduling mannequin is paying off. Alabama has eight victories in opposition to Quad 1 or Quad 2 opponents. Solely eight different groups have extra proper now.
Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a reasonably new resume metric that the NCAA seeding committee will use for simply the second time. WAB loves highway wins. Oats’ determination to play St. John’s on the highway and Illinois on the United Middle in Chicago was clever, and Alabama is reaping the reward. Each of these victories earned Alabama over 0.8 Wins Above Bubble apiece. So even with blowout losses to contenders like Purdue and Arizona and a house loss to Texas, Alabama nonetheless ranks sixteenth in WAB as a result of it has been a highway warrior and constructed up a callus.
It is a flawed squad that won’t win the nationwide championship due to its points on the glass, however Oats has Alabama positioned to earn a top-five seed as a result of he has performed the hardest schedule within the nation to this point. That path provides Alabama greater than a puncher’s probability to make the second weekend for the fifth time within the final six seasons. Grade the resume: B+
Indiana
Present CBS Sports activities’ bracketology projection: OUT
February is correct across the nook, and Indiana nonetheless doesn’t have a win it feels nice about. The Hoosiers are simply 1-4 in highway video games and personal a 1-7 report in Quad 1 or Quad 2 contests. Nonconference wins over Marquette and Kansas State had been presupposed to be Quad 2 victories, at minimal, however 10-9 Kansas State is without doubt one of the Huge 12 bottom-feeders (regardless of spending boatloads of money), and Marquette is a considerably shocking Huge East cellar-dweller.
Indiana’s result-based metrics paint a scary image proper now. The Hoosiers sit 58th in Wins Above Bubble (WAB). Predictive metrics like KenPom (thirty eighth nationally) and Bart Torvik (twenty sixth) are nonetheless bullish on the Hoosiers’ upside, however these projections appear aggressive to the bare eye. Indiana’s lack of tip-top athleticism is jarring. Fortunately, Indiana has the sixth-toughest remaining Huge Ten slate, so resume-boosting alternatives are apparent, however it’s getting late early for Darian DeVries’ boys. Grade: D
North Carolina
Present CBS Sports activities’ bracketology projection: No. 8 seed
Three highway losses to SMU, Stanford and Cal have despatched North Carolina careening again in direction of the bubble. UNC remains to be on tempo to make the event, however its resume is simply … high quality? 4-4 in opposition to the highest two quadrants. No unhealthy losses. twenty seventh within the NET. twenty fifth in WAB. thirty third in KenPom and thirty fifth at Torvik. It is a rock-solid resume, however it lacks oomph. UNC’s highway victory over Kentucky is its greatest win on the board, and nobody will complain about beating Kansas at residence. However UNC must get on a heater and present some guts on the highway if it desires to keep away from the dreaded 8/9 slot. Grade: B-
Virginia Tech
Present CBS Sports activities’ bracketology projection: Final 4 In
Virginia Tech has been in some doozies. If Stanford’s Ebuka Okorie would not placed on the cape within the final two minutes, or SMU‘s Boopie Miller would not drain a halfcourt heave, Virginia Tech’s resume could be in phenomenal form. However the 15-5 Hokies are additionally lucky to be 4-0 in time beyond regulation video games this yr, together with a triple-overtime, “dumpster hearth flipped right into a traditional” win over hated rival Virginia. That victory is a significant feather within the cap, and Wednesday’s highway win over Syracuse will assist as nicely.
The NET is not excessive on Virginia Tech proper now, slotting the Hokies at forty ninth. Predictive metrics like KenPom aren’t overly offered, both. However Virginia Tech is thirty ninth in WAB, has seven wins in opposition to the highest two quadrants, zero unhealthy losses and did not play a cupcake schedule.
Virginia Tech feels poised to play eight extra nip-and-tuck video games which might be tied with 4 minutes to go. Go 5-3 in these barnburners, and Mike Younger is again within the dance for the primary time since 2022. Grade: B
TCU
Present CBS Sports activities’ bracketology projection: First 4 Out
Does anybody have a pulse on what to anticipate from this TCU membership? I positive do not. The Frogs’ Quad 4 loss to New Orleans goes to linger like a wet-dog odor for some time, however TCU additionally has neutral-site victories over Florida and Wisconsin! Legitimately nice victories. TCU earned +1.37 WAB for these two wins alone.
TCU sits sixtieth in WAB, forty sixth within the NET and 52nd on KenPom. There’s nonetheless ages to go, however it’s exhausting to shake the sensation that if it misses the Huge Dance, TCU will look again to when it had Michigan, BYU and Kansas all on the ropes and stole defeat from the jaws of victory.
Intestine-wrenching. Grade: C-
Washington
Present CBS Sports activities’ bracketology projection: OUT
Danny Sprinkle will not be enjoying his full deck of playing cards, however liftoff is not occurring for the group that calls Alaska Airways Enviornment residence. Wesley Yates is again on the shelf, and Desmond Claude is damage once more, too. Zoom Diallo and Hannes Steinbach have been warriors, however Washington‘s case for an at-large bid feels objectively lifeless already as a result of it couldn’t retailer sufficient hay within the barn in opposition to a brutal eight-game schedule to kick off Huge Ten play.
Accidents apart, Washington missed a large alternative final week with back-to-back residence losses to Michigan and Michigan State. It misplaced each of these Quad 1 residence alternatives. Killer. UW has the best Huge Ten slate remaining, however the Huskies are simply 1-6 in Quad 1 video games. Washington has no unhealthy losses (Seattle U on the highway is simply a Quad 2 defeat), however it must stack high quality victories, and there aren’t many alternatives left on the board.
The metrics paint a dreary image. Washington is seventieth when averaging the result-based metrics. It’s fiftieth on KenPom and 56th on Bart Torvik. And not using a miraculous shut, the good Steinbach won’t dance in 2026. Grade: D-