Mets Snag Luis Robert Jr. From White Sox

With a lot of the high free brokers having discovered new properties – 12 of our high 15 have signed – the baseball transaction information figured to be gentle this week. Possibly the Yankees and Cody Bellinger would preserve making lovey-dovey eyes at one another throughout the negotiating desk to present us some headlines, however that felt like the one sport on the town for not less than just a few days. However simply because nobody is left to signal doesn’t imply nothing can occur. Out in Queens, the Mets weren’t content material to take a seat pat after signing Bo Bichette. They continued their offseason splurge by buying Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox in trade for Luisangel Acuña and pitching prospect Truman Pauley, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported.

I’ve grappled with evaluating Robert innumerable occasions over the previous few years. For some time, he was a yearly characteristic in our Commerce Worth collection, an electrical expertise in his early 20s. Then he grew to become an fascinating litmus take a look at when speaking to workforce evaluators, as his manufacturing dipped however his prodigious instruments remained as loud as ever. Lastly, as his contract hit the costly workforce choice section, I thought of him for a listing of high free brokers, as I’ve to foretell what choice choices groups will make. At each flip, I got here away equally impressed and annoyed by Robert’s ludicrous ceiling and subbasement-level ground.

You need a tooled-up middle fielder? Robert is your man. In the event you click on on the “Prospects Report” tab on his participant web page, you’ll see this brief blurb by Eric Longenhagen: “Commencement TLDR: The Vitruvian Outfield Prospect in all aspects save for his strategy, Robert graduated from prospectdom as considered one of baseball’s most fun gamers.” That Vitruvian Outfield Prospect phrase has caught with me.

In the event you made an outfielder in a lab, he’d look quite a bit like this. Energy? Robert has Ninetieth-percentile bat pace and clobbered 38 house runs in his final full season of taking part in time. He will get the ball within the air, too, all the higher to maximise his finest contact. Pace? You guessed it, Ninetieth-percentile dash pace. He’s additionally among the many finest defensive outfielders within the sport when he’s wholesome. He even has a powerful throwing arm, although it’s inaccurate at occasions. In the event you’re searching for a Gold Glove defender who can hit 40 homers on the hardest outfield spot and swipe 30 baggage, he’s considered one of perhaps three gamers in your entire majors who suits the invoice.

I simply described an MVP candidate to you. Certainly, he completed Twelfth in MVP voting in his incandescent 2023 season, even whereas the White Sox went 61-101. However that’s his aforementioned ceiling – 4.9 WAR in 145 video games on the again of a 129 wRC+. His ground? Throughout his subsequent 210 video games and two seasons, he’s produced 1.9 WAR and an 84 wRC+. Neglect an MVP candidate; that’s a fourth outfielder or a defensive specialist.

Therein lies the rub with Robert. There’s just one clear gap in his offensive sport. The issue is that it’s crucial factor there may be: plate self-discipline. Robert has not often seen a pitch he doesn’t like. In 2025, he chased extra usually than 80% of main leaguers. That was the perfect mark of his profession. His huge, looping swing additionally brings a ton of swing-and-miss. He whiffed extra usually than 91% of main leaguers, roughly consistent with his profession fee. Robert desires to place the ball within the stands, however it results in the catcher’s mitt rather a lot when he’s not proper.

High quality, high-quality, it results in the catcher’s mitt quite a bit even when he’s proper. However the trade-off can work – that transcendent 2023 season got here with a 29% strikeout fee and a mere 5% stroll fee. And there’s room for optimism on that entrance, too. Pitchers fairly fairly have no real interest in coming close to the strike zone when Robert is on the plate. Merely by lowering his chase fee from obscene to unhealthy, he posted a career-high 9.3% stroll fee in 2025. We may be projecting him as a roughly common bat, however it’s a type of circumstances the place a bunch of 30s and a bunch of 70s common out to 50. It’s not onerous to think about Robert returning to elite type, and likewise not that arduous to think about him persevering with his descent into poor hitting.

If there’s one factor the Mets want to repair, it’s that Robert’s finest contact hasn’t been elevated of late. He nonetheless hits the ball a lot onerous; in reality, he’s posted higher common exit velocities than his superlative ‘23 marketing campaign in every of the final two years. However that’s not translating to homers prefer it did previously. In an image, right here’s why:

This little device I’ve been engaged on isn’t prepared for primetime but, however I feel it’s a good way of explaining what’s occurring right here. The x-axis is the proportion of batted balls at a given launch angle which can be squared up – hit proper on the nostril, at 80% or extra of their theoretical most pace given how briskly the bat and the ball are touring. The dimensions of the circles represents how usually the hitter hits a ball at that exact launch angle. Like his fellow highly effective middle fielder Julio Rodríguez, Robert squares the ball up someplace between 60% and 80% of the time when he’s not hitting it straight into the bottom or straight into the air. However he hits a ton of balls at unthreatening angles, from -5 to fifteen levels, and he’s not even squaring these up all that properly. His purest contact is in a fantastic house run band, 30 to 35 levels, however he very not often reaches these heights. The truth is, he squares up fly balls much less regularly than Rodríguez does regardless of hitting them extra usually. In different phrases, his swing isn’t doing the factor you’d need it to do — hit the ball onerous within the air — despite the fact that he usually hits the ball onerous, and in addition usually hits the ball within the air. It’s mismatched.

Can the Mets flip Robert’s offensive sport round? A lot as I wish to avoid this evaluation, I feel numerous it depends upon Robert’s mindset. It’s not onerous to think about entering into the occasional unhealthy behavior on the woeful White Sox, significantly with commerce rumors swirling round you nonstop. A swing-first strategy makes unhealthy habits sting extra; while you swing quite a bit, you’re participating the pitcher on their phrases as an alternative of yours, which signifies that when you have a weak spot, they’ll go after it. Mix that with a string of accidents, and also you get the final two years of Robert.

It’s equally doable that he simply wants a contemporary begin, a brand new voice as a hitting coach, completely different teammates to bounce concepts off of within the dugout. Or, perhaps it’s not a mindset or strategy factor; perhaps he simply can’t modify, attempt as he may. That occurs, too. Generally guys hit a peak after which decline away from it by means of no fault of their very own. Baseball’s robust. The opposite man additionally lives in a giant home. It’s not a failing of character to have two down seasons. However it’s inarguably the case that one thing wanted to vary with Robert, and this commerce definitely qualifies as one thing.

At a $22 million wage, that’s a little bit of a bet for the Mets. However the high-end outcomes Robert affords are roughly inaccessible so as to add in commerce, and even in free company most years. He even has a workforce choice for 2027 ($20 million, however $2 million of that could be a buyout that I’ve counted in 2026 wage), so if he bounces again to a facsimile of his 2023 type, it isn’t out of the query that he may stick round for a second marketing campaign, a contract extension, or each. He suits New York’s roster so properly that even a so-so season can be acceptable. The Mets don’t have any different middle fielders who’re wherever close to Robert’s caliber, and his fielding prowess ought to assist compensate some for the anticipated defensive issues from their nook outfielders. Certain, the cash may be greater than you’d anticipate to pay somebody with Robert’s latest efficiency, however in the event you ignore that, he’s a fantastic match for the Mets. Steve Cohen is an excellent proprietor to have in the event you’re seeking to ignore somebody’s wage.

That wage helps clarify Chicago’s return on this deal. Acuña is finest recognized for having a well-known brother, and second-best recognized for being swapped for Max Scherzer within the nice Mets pitcher teardown of 2023. He reached the majors in 2024 after which caught on as a utility infielder in ‘25, racking up practically 200 plate appearances in 95 video games. Can he hit? Eh, not likely: He’s been a below-average hitter within the minors every of the final two years, and naturally a below-average hitter within the majors as properly, with a profession 83 wRC+.

He does provide blazing pace and defensive versatility, which makes his ground pleasingly excessive. At 5-foot-8 and with bottom-tier bat pace, he’s by no means going to submit gaudy energy numbers, and he’s too aggressive on the plate to be an on-base machine, however he places the ball in play, provides worth on the bases, and might play a ton of positions not less than passingly properly. He even made a cameo in middle area final yr, and the Sox will most likely give him loads of run on the market to see how he takes to it. Plenty of good groups have gamers like Acuña; most of these golf equipment don’t quit a lot of notice to amass them. On condition that he’s solely 23 and nonetheless has lower than a yr of service time to his identify, the White Sox may have a very long time to see if he can turn into one thing extra, however for all of the identify recognition, his precise skill just isn’t all that intriguing.

Truman Pauley isn’t precisely your common headliner, both. A Twelfth-round decide within the 2025 draft, he’s thrown solely 4 1/3 innings in skilled baseball. Right here’s Eric Longenhagen on the second-most-notable Harvard prospect traded previously week:

Pauley was a draft-eligible sophomore at Harvard who added two ticks to his fastball (sitting 93 now) in 2025 however struggled with walks in his first yr as a starter. His stuff has fascinating traits; his fastball averages 19 inches of induced vertical break, and his slider spins at practically 2,800 rpm. Pauley added a cutter after the draft and dedicated to its use. He threw it greater than any of his different choices and had strike-throwing success with it in a small post-draft pattern. That pitch has tight, late motion within the 88-92 mph vary whereas Pauley’s slider is extra 82-85 mph. It seemed like he was experimenting with a splitter late, too. Although Pauley lacks any form of starter-quality strike-throwing monitor report, his repertoire improved sufficient after the draft to justify growth as a starter in his first full professional season and past. He’ll enter the White Sox record as a 35+ FV prospect, extra an “arrow up” flier who has improved fairly a bit within the final 12 months.

It’s fairly simple to know what’s occurring right here on the White Sox facet. Robert’s contract is not less than arguably underwater. That’s why I thought of him for this yr’s free agent record; I wasn’t assured that the White Sox can be keen to pay him north of $20 million, a couple of quarter of their total payroll, with completely no hope of competing and never a lot probability of a giant commerce return. They did decide up his choice, however I stand by my analysis: This deal implies that Robert’s on-field worth was not meaningfully extra thrilling to groups than his wage was onerous.

What’s much less clear is how we received right here. Robert would have been a prize acquisition at a number of factors previously. The Sox have been open to buying and selling him, and he’s reportedly been on the commerce block forward of some deadlines and through just a few scorching range seasons. However they stored holding out for a premium return, a “this workforce is determined and desires Luis” return, as is their prerogative. As his manufacturing began to say no, it’s comprehensible that the Chicago brass was gradual to decrease its asking worth. In any case, have a look at that 2023 season! However whereas the Sox held out for 110% of X, the place X was Robert’s present perceived worth, X declined quickly.

That is a simple idea to know intuitively. I assure that you just’ve achieved one thing related in your life earlier than. As a former markets man, it feels to me like hanging on to a inventory too lengthy even because it retains happening. When it’s at 80, you need 85 for it. When it’s at 60, you need 65. Fairly quickly, it’s at 20 and also you’re questioning if somebody pays you 18. Among the rumored returns for Robert would dwarf what the Sox in the end received for him, however they have been taking part in a sport of rooster with their potential commerce suitors, and so they misplaced.

That’s a bummer, however have a look at it this fashion: 18 is greater than zero. The unhealthy choices of the previous don’t have an effect on the optimum technique within the current. The Sox needed to commerce Robert, and so they weren’t going to get a lot for him. They did that! Good work. Certain, a utilityman and a lottery ticket pitching prospect isn’t precisely a bounty, however it was that or nothing. I additionally don’t put numerous credence into the concept of the Sox paying down Robert’s wage to get a much bigger return; he’d nonetheless be a rental, and groups simply don’t pay a lot for rental bats lately.

Mets followers will most likely have a look at this commerce within the context of their workforce’s not signing Kyle Tucker. White Sox followers will most likely have a look at this commerce within the context of their workforce’s not buying and selling Robert previously. Neither fan base is incorrect, precisely. However neither resides within the current, both. No person’s excellent, and each entrance workplace has choices and previous turning factors that it regrets. However the place we’re standing now, this commerce makes a ton of sense for each side.