Luis Arraez Belongs on the Mountaintop

In early November, MLB Commerce Rumors and Baseball Prospectus launched their prime 50 free brokers lists, which included guesses about the place every participant would find yourself. Our focus on this article is on Luis Arraez, and in these two lists, seven very sensible folks and one random quantity generator made their finest estimations about his likeliest vacation spot. Solely two of these consultants picked the identical workforce for him. The following week, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello broke down a whopping seven potential touchdown spots for Arraez. Solely considered one of these groups was on both of the 2 earlier lists. Lastly, simply this weekend, a Fox Sports activities article with no byline defined why three groups would make the most effective match for Arraez, and solely considered one of these groups had any overlap with the earlier three articles. By my rely, that’s eight completely different consultants, one robotic, and one I-don’t-know-what making a complete of 18 predictions. By some means, these 18 predictions included 15 completely different touchdown spots for Arraez. That’s half the league! Solely three groups acquired a number of votes, and no workforce acquired greater than two. We’ve acquired a real thriller on our fingers.

To a point, all of that is comprehensible. Most projections have Arraez signing for both one 12 months or two with a median annual worth of $11 or $12 million. Which means even the stingiest groups can afford him. And though Arraez is a poor defender who solely initiatives for roughly 1.5 WAR (relying in your projection system), he’s by no means as soon as put up a below-average season on offense. With the attainable exception of the Dodgers, there is no such thing as a such factor as a workforce that couldn’t discover a spot for a hitter of Arraez’s caliber. ZiPS is barely increased on Arraez than most techniques, projecting him for 1.8 WAR in 2026. That’s greater than we now have projected in our Depth Charts both at first base, DH, or each for 21 completely different groups. All people can afford him. Nearly everyone might use him. He actually might find yourself anyplace.

Whereas I don’t have any particular perception about the place Arraez will find yourself, I do have a robust desire. I would like him to signal with the Rockies, and I would like this for a quite simple purpose. I need to see Luis Arraez be probably the most Luis Arraez he will be. His talent set is exclusive in immediately’s recreation, and Coors Subject is the proper surroundings to let him flourish.

Let’s get the match half out of the best way early. Unsurprisingly, the Rockies have room on their roster for Arraez. After DFA’ing Michael Toglia, our Depth Charts count on them to get a pleasant spherical 0.0 WAR at first base from a mixture of Troy Johnston, Blaine Crim, Charlie Condon, and the injured Kris Bryant. Likewise, the Rockies are projected to get 0.1 WAR from the DH place. Each marks are the worst in baseball. Even at his worst, Arraez represents a giant improve from the replacement-level-by-committee the Rockies are at the moment set to roll out at these two spots.

I’m positive you already know Arraez’s résumé effectively, so I’ll persist with the highlights right here. He received three consecutive batting titles from 2022-24, and final 12 months, his .292 common ranked fourth within the NL. He has led his league in hits twice. He has posted the sport’s lowest strikeout price in every of the previous 4 seasons. Yr in and 12 months out, he’s on the very backside of the sport in bat pace, exit velocity, and hard-hit price, and proper on the very prime in touch price, squared-up price, and batting common. He does this by staying again, shortening up, and slapping the ball the opposite manner. His common assault angle of six levels – which nearly completely matches the incoming angle of the typical pitch – permits him to smack line drive after line drive into left area. Sports activities Information Options has been monitoring line drive price since 2002, and Arraez’s profession line drive price of 26.9% is the third highest over that interval.

Arraez’s contact-above-all strategy carries two essential drawbacks. The primary is that if you’re able to hitting something, you are likely to swing at every little thing. Arraez has grown increasingly chase-happy in recent times, and he’s completed within the backside 20 in stroll price amongst certified gamers in every of the final three seasons. The second disadvantage is that this strategy precludes any likelihood for slugging.

Put these two elements collectively, and you discover that the trail to success is slender, and it’s paved with so, so many singles. For many of Arraez’s profession, that has labored out simply advantageous. He has led baseball in singles in every of the previous three seasons. Actually, he leads all hitters with 805 singles since his debut in 2019, regardless that he didn’t play something approaching a full season till 2022. And he’s not simply main — he’s manner, manner in entrance. With 734 singles, Trea Turner is the one participant who’s inside even 100 of Arraez. His complete recreation revolves round dumping the ball over the left aspect of the infield. Cal Raleigh will be the greatest dumper, however Arraez is probably the most prolific.

From 2019 to 2023, Arraez ran a mixed 123 wRC+ with a .326 batting common, however extra just lately, the singles have dried up only a bit. He put up a 109 wRC+ in 2024 because of a career-low .078 ISO. In 2025, his hard-hit price dropped to a minuscule 16.7%, the second-worst mark from a professional hitter this decade. Accordingly, his BABIP dropped to .289, and he ended with a career-worst 104 wRC+. It’s value noting that Arraez performed via a painful thumb harm for a lot of 2024, acquired surgical procedure final offseason, after which suffered a concussion early within the 2025 marketing campaign. It’s arduous to say how a lot time he has spent at or close to 100% over the past two years. He’s solely 28, and it’s no less than conceivable that, if totally wholesome, he might go proper again to successful batting titles in 2026. However even in his ugly 2025 season, he posted the most effective contact, whiff, and squared-up charges in baseball, hit extra line drives than anyone else, and completed as an above-average contributor on the plate.

A part of the issue is that defenses are on to Arraez. Over the previous a number of years, as outfielders throughout the league have performed deeper and deeper to be able to gobble up extra-base hits, they’ve been taking part in Arraez shallower and shallower. For the primary 5 years of his profession, left fielders performed both 282 or 283 ft deep when Arraez was on the plate on the street. In 2024, that dropped to 280. In 2025, it dropped a whopping six ft, to 274. That was the second-shortest mark in baseball, behind solely Chandler Simpson at 273. Not coincidentally, since his debut in 2019, Arraez leads all of baseball with 102 outs on balls that traveled between 235 and 260 ft. These are balls that simply fail to drop in entrance of the outfielder. Yr after 12 months, Arraez hits extra balls inside this distance than anyone else within the league, and since 2022, solely Steven Kwan has hit into extra outs on these batted balls than Arraez, presumably as a result of Kwan performs his dwelling video games at Progressive Subject.

So Arraez is coming off a down season, he’s at all times going to be BABIP dependent, and outfielders at the moment are taking part in him absurdly shallow as a result of they know he’s not even all for hitting it over their heads. You understand what could be nice? If we might deposit him gently right into a ballpark that’s identified for top BABIPs. A ballpark with an outfield so massive that the fielders should play deep, lest a ball within the hole or down the road sneak previous them and switch right into a triple. A ballpark the place all these deep outfielders create the largest dumping floor for singles the thoughts can think about. Am I ringing any bells right here?

Welcome to Coors Subject, the place the powers that be have pushed the fences manner again to be able to accommodate the would-be dwelling run balls floating drag-free via the skinny air. Coors is the most effective offensive park within the league. Extra particularly, with a park issue of 116, it’s probably the most singles-friendly park within the league. No different stadium has a mark above 108. That hole of eight factors between first and second place is the most important of any kind of base hit. Over the previous three years, visiting left fielders have positioned themselves at a median depth of 308 ft at Coors Subject, tied with Truist Park for the deepest within the league. (I excluded dwelling groups from this as a result of they play so many video games at their very own ballpark that if they’ve any explicit tendencies, they’ll skew the outcomes.)

Throughout that very same interval, line drives between 230 and 260 ft to left area have a .993 batting common at Coors, in comparison with .854 at Petco Park, Arraez’s dwelling for a lot of the final two seasons following his commerce from the Marlins to the Padres in early Might 2024. That’s a distinction of 139 factors! Nobody has hit extra balls that match these actual parameters over the previous three seasons than Arraez, both in whole or on a price foundation. If we slender our search to line drives to left between 250 and 270 ft, Arraez leads the majors with 24 outs. Which will sound like a small distinction, however we’re speaking about one thing like 13 factors of batting common in a season. And take into account that if fielders determine to maintain taking part in Arraez so shallow in that spacious Coors outfield, then they’re prone to let just a few extra balls skip previous them, and people balls will carry on rolling whereas Arraez rounds the bases and pads his slim slugging proportion.

Coors additionally suppresses strikeouts, and again in November, Petriello identified that over 53 plate appearances in Denver, Arraez has by no means as soon as struck out. Not as soon as. Once I raised the potential for a mountain-dwelling Arraez, Dan Szymborski ran the numbers. That 1.8 projected WAR from ZiPS that I discussed earlier assumed a impartial ballpark. Throughout Arraez’s career-worst 2025 season, he referred to as Petco Park his dwelling. With a park issue of 97, Petco suppresses singles. Transfer Arraez from a impartial park to Coors, and ZiPS ups his projections from a 110 OPS+ to 117 and 1.8 WAR to 2.1. Impulsively, Arraez initiatives as not only a main improve, but in addition as an above-average common. And if it seems that accidents had been holding him again over the previous two seasons, and he’s now again to his three-straight-batting-crowns kind, who is aware of what sort of loopy batting common he might submit in Colorado?