As Earlier than, So Once more: Cody Bellinger Is a Yankee

Our lengthy nationwide nightmare is over. After weeks of forwards and backwards between Cody Bellinger and the New York Yankees, it’s official: He’s staying within the Bronx. The 2 sides have agreed to a five-year, $162.5 million cope with decide outs after the second and third seasons, a $20 million signing bonus, and a full no-trade clause, as first reported by Jeff Passan.

This match was so apparent that it nearly needed to occur. The Yankees want offense, and so they’d choose it to return within the type of a left-handed outfielder who can cowl middle subject in a pinch. They’re already conversant in Bellinger, who simply put up a 5-WAR season in pinstripes. No different groups wanted this actual sort of participant as a lot, at this present second, as they did. Likewise, Bellinger was most likely going to should signal with the Yankees to get the deal he needed. Now that that foregone conclusion has been reached, let’s unpack how this all suits collectively.

This contract is the fruits of a protracted, embellished profession that was conspicuously missing in free company enchantment. Bellinger burst onto the scene in 2017 with 39 homers for the Dodgers, taking Rookie of the Yr honors within the course of. He then went totally supersonic within the homer-happy 2019 season, with the rocket ball propelling him to 47 homers, a 161 wRC+, and NL MVP honors. Catastrophe struck within the 2020 World Sequence, nevertheless. Bellinger dislocated his shoulder celebrating a house run, and his efficiency fell off a cliff instantly after.

For the following two seasons, Bellinger managed solely 29 mixed homers and a 69 wRC+. Removed from his MVP heights, he was basically substitute stage (0.4 WAR over 900 PA), main the Dodgers to non-tender him quite than pay him the roughly $20 million he was prone to earn in his ultimate season of arbitration. He signed a one-year cope with the Cubs, bounced again with a 135 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR in 130 video games, then hit free company on the lookout for his style of the great life.

The market didn’t see it that means, and in the long run, Bellinger snagged a pillow contract of kinds, a three-year cope with Chicago that had decide outs after every season. A middling 2024 led him to say no his first decide out, and the cost-conscious Cubs then despatched him to the Yankees for a pittance (swingman Cody Poteet). That brings us to Bellinger’s superlative 2025, and his long-awaited massive free company payday.

I haven’t spent too lengthy describing the specifics of Bellinger’s recreation since you most likely already understand it, what with him being one of many extra well-known gamers of the final decade and all, however a refresher remains to be so as. Defensively, he can deal with all three outfield positions, and he’s meaningfully above common in a nook. He’s additionally an unimaginable first baseman, although his defensive abilities are wasted there and he solely performs there sporadically as of late.

We don’t should marvel what Bellinger will seem like in Yankee Stadium as a result of we already understand it’s a match made in heaven. His lift-and-pull method isn’t solely a product of the cosy proper subject dimensions, however the match of swing and park is about nearly as good because it will get. Of Bellinger’s 29 homers in 2025, 27 have been pulled, and the opposite two have been hit to right-center. He hasn’t at all times been so geared to drag, however from the beginning of his profession, he’s seemed to raise and have fun, and now he’s going to maintain doing so in among the best locations for lefties with that profile.

Due to that profile, Bellinger’s sluggish swing pace is a function and never a bug. He’s blessed with a superb batting eye and outrageous contact expertise. His 90.6% zone contact price in 2025 was twenty sixth within the majors, the area of slap hitters and their ilk. However his contact is lifted – he had the Tenth-highest fly ball price in baseball, with 1 / 4 of his batted balls pulled within the air. That’s not fairly Isaac Paredes territory, nevertheless it’s within the prime 15% of all main leaguers. By making a ton of contact and aiming that contact at harmful angles, Bellinger produces energy numbers out of whack with what you’d count on from a Twentieth-percentile bat pace man who strikes out at a minuscule 13.7% clip. He won’t hit the ball all that arduous, however swinging much less viciously helps him make extra contact, and the pure uppercut form of his swing handles the remainder.

This method most likely precludes him from being a high-BABIP sort, however actually, who cares? Between strolling loads, hardly ever placing out, and clobbering 30 bombs a season, you may produce loads of offensive worth with out seeing-eye singles. The Bellinger method is a wonderful technique to benefit from his post-injury ability set; his common exit velocities early in his profession have been constantly on the prime of the league, however he’s been squarely beneath common now for 3 straight years. By leaning into that, he’s discovered a beautiful second act.

Add all of it up, and also you get a beautiful working mate for Aaron Choose. Bellinger was a stalwart on the prime of the Yankees lineup in 2025, and he’s going to play that function once more for a minimum of the following two years. He’s an excellent hedge in opposition to one of the vital frequent methods for neutralizing Choose. The Yankees wish to encompass Choose with a gob of lefties, placing opponents in a bind of giving Choose a superb platoon matchup or letting everybody round him eat. The straightforward answer to that is to herald a lefty reliever after which deliberately stroll Choose, getting good matchups in opposition to everybody else. However Bellinger has near-neutral splits for his profession, and his power-and-walks recreation performs extremely effectively with runners on base. It’s not the straightforward matchup pitchers would hope for after handing their opponent a free runner.

Defensively, Bellinger’s skill to play a number of spots is simply what the Yankees want. I had him second on my Fielding Bible poll in left subject, the place the place he performed probably the most innings. He was additionally nice in proper, because the Yankees gave Choose 56 video games of DHing, significantly when Giancarlo Stanton was on the IL. Lastly, he was impartial in middle backing up Trent Grisham (who can even return after accepting the group’s qualifying provide). He performed 300 innings or extra at every place. That type of versatility let the Yankees toggle between their greatest offensive lineup and numerous different permutations with impunity, sliding Bellinger round to wherever there was a gap with out worrying about protection.

This contract is greater than I predicted for Bellinger coming into the winter, and that’s earlier than you add within the worth of the decide outs. I feel that agent Scott Boras performed this one extremely effectively. As I’ve talked about, the Yankees wanted a really specific archetype of participant. There aren’t loads of different guys like Bellinger on the market, definitely not ones out there in free company. Kyle Tucker would possibly match the invoice, nevertheless it didn’t really feel like Brian Cashman was all in favour of wading into that exact fray, and also you don’t really need Tucker to identify in middle anyhow. Defensive versatility together with offensive firepower is usually the area of younger, untouchable franchise cornerstones as of late. Kudos to Boras for understanding that Bellinger’s worth exceeded a linear estimation of his contributions because of this, and sticking to his convictions till the deal was executed.

About these decide outs: I don’t suppose they’re that prone to be exercised. ZiPS has Bellinger down for a delicate decline over the 5 seasons he’s below contract:

Plugging these values right into a selfmade calculator to estimate the probability of an decide out, I get solely a 26% likelihood that both choice can be exercised. The reason being simple: The three years remaining on Bellinger’s deal after the primary decide out are his age-32, -33, and -34 seasons. Not many 32-year-olds signal three-year, $82.5 million offers within the first place. Getting greater than that’s solely possible if Bellinger is markedly higher than anticipated over the following two years. It’s not that it may’t occur, however this isn’t a pillow contract with some longevity inbuilt as a fallback; it’s a five-year cope with a tiny escape valve for Bellinger if he’s actually good.

I’d nonetheless be extremely happy with this deal if I have been Bellinger. Mix this and the 2 years of his final contract that he performed out earlier than returning to free company, and it’s like he signed a seven-year, $217 million deal, the type of blockbuster contract that he was angling for all alongside. By betting on himself by way of the pillow contract with decide outs, he didn’t even sacrifice a lot in common annual worth to get right here, as a result of he bought a pleasant $27.5 million AAV on that short-term contract, barely decrease than the typical worth of this deal. In case you’re on the lookout for an instance of what occurs when gamers take short-term offers after which do effectively, it is a good one.

Is it an “overpay”? Perhaps to a mannequin. ZiPS would provide Bellinger $139 million over 5 years with these projections, extremely near my $140 million estimate. However the Yankees aren’t a mannequin; they’re a serious league baseball group that wanted a slugging lefty outfielder. Taking part in cute within the negotiations, making an attempt to avoid wasting a couple of dollars, carried significant draw back threat. Outfitting Choose with a less-than-spectacular supporting forged, whereas he stacks 10-WAR seasons like firewood, is entrance workplace malpractice. The Choose deal has been such an enormous win for the Yankees that they need to be tripping over themselves to make small overpays to get their most well-liked supporting forged, and it is a fantastic instance of that.