2026 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The workforce order is chosen by lot, and the antepenultimate workforce is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

ZiPS was a giant believer within the 2025 Chicago Cubs, and it was proper on level about most of their core expertise. The issue, although, was that ZiPS wasn’t proper concerning the Milwaukee Brewers, and although Chicago stayed within the NL Central race for many of the season, Milwaukee’s 14-game profitable streak all however settled issues by mid-August. Add in a five-game loss to the Brew Crew within the NLDS, and a profitable season resulted in underwhelming style for the North Siders. The Cubs went into the offseason seeking to exchange Kyle Tucker within the lineup and shore up the rotation a bit.

Typically talking, the Cubs have a slightly boring lineup in a single method: It’s principally well-established gamers who’re largely in the identical roles as final season. Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya, the latter swapped in for Reese McGuire, will likely be a reliable tandem behind the plate. Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will play terrific protection, with PCA including a bunch of homers at the price of a slightly low on-base share. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are on the flawed aspect of 30, however not distressingly so, and the usually B+ nook outfielders will possible put up their typical B+ seasons. One can see why the Cubs felt they might afford to commerce Owen Caissie to Miami for Edward Cabrera; he was going to have a tough time discovering taking part in time, and Kevin Alcántara’s protection makes him a extra versatile fourth outfielder.

The place there are modifications are at third base and designated hitter (by means of Suzuki taking part in much more proper area). Alex Bregman is kind of the Kyle Tucker substitute, with a bit much less bat and a bit extra defensive worth. Moisés Ballesteros has numerous offensive upside, however he’s not likely thrilling but as a full-time designated hitter, and Matt Shaw loses important worth as a DH. ZiPS is optimistic about Tyler Austin after a principally profitable six-year run in Japan, although he doesn’t present numerous flexibility, because it’s been years since he’s performed wherever however first base. I say principally profitable as a result of he wasn’t significantly sturdy in NPB, along with his most notable — and amusing — harm coming when he smashed his head on the dugout ceiling whereas altering his jersey.

I’m truly not fairly positive what occurs with Shaw, who seems to have been musical chaired out of a big function by the Bregman and Austin signings. I don’t know simply how severely the Cubs think about him a supersub. Swanson and Hoerner had been each sturdy in 2025, so we didn’t get any sneak peeks at how the Cubs really felt about Shaw’s capacity to play the center infield when the rubber meets the street.

I’m wondering if the Cubs will likely be significantly energetic with non-roster invites over the subsequent month; ZiPS doesn’t see an amazing deal in the best way of reinforcements within the excessive minors. Guys like Scott Kingery are in all probability far too excessive within the ZiPS WAR rankings than the Cubs should be snug with.

Pitchers

ZiPS sees the Cubs as having a really deep rotation that’s additionally very deep in unexcitement. There’s definitely some upside right here, particularly in Edward Cabrera, however ZiPS largely views the workforce as having an entire lot of broadly common beginning pitching choices. The excellent news right here is that if Justin Steele has any setbacks, ZiPS likes the workforce’s substitute choices. Even with particularly dangerous luck within the harm division, the pc thinks Javier Assad will likely be sufficient — it has him with an ERA significantly decrease than his FIP, although a few of that’s because of the stellar Cubs protection — and that Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks would each be much more acceptable as starters if known as into responsibility than they’ve proven up to now. Heck, if Colin Rea and even Connor Noland had been compelled into beginning some video games, that wouldn’t be an apocalyptic state of affairs for the Cubs.

Whereas deep in meh, ZiPS is extra enthusiastic concerning the Chicago bullpen. Now, as was the case with Assad, among the bullpen’s projected sufficiency comes right down to the protection behind it, however ZiPS largely sees these relievers as having ERAs beneath 4, and usually effectively beneath that line. ZiPS particularly likes Hunter Harvey, Daniel Palencia, and the reduction model of Porter Hodge. Within the case of Hodge, bear in mind the rule to not freak out about one-year dwelling run totals for in any other case competent pitchers. The one outstanding relievers ZiPS appears to be like at with a little bit of a aspect eye are Ethan Roberts and up to date signee Jacob Webb.

All in all, the Cubs appear to be a workforce with a win complete within the low 90s. The one detrimental of that projection is that ZiPS feels equally concerning the Brewers this time round. We received’t know the tip of this story for an additional 9 months.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names may be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate workforce projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 as a result of harm, and gamers who had been launched in 2025. So sure, in case you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to kind a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected workforce WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how rapidly a workforce will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.