The range is piping sizzling, my pals.
Simply over 12 hours after Kyle Tucker’s bombshell signing with the Dodgers, Bo Bichette can also be on the transfer. To the New York Mets, on a three-year, $126 million contract with opt-outs after every of the primary two seasons. A shortstop all through his profession thus far, Bichette is anticipated to play third base for the Mets, who’ve a reasonably stable incumbent shortstop already.
Bichette and the Dodgers had been in discussions over a short-term, high-AAV deal just like the one Tucker in the end signed, however Bichette, like most free brokers, appeared to be fascinated by a contract with extra time period and general worth, however a decrease annual wage. Again in August, I made a case for Bichette to money in by pitching him as Trea Turner, however sluggish. And when America went to mattress on Thursday, the good cash was on Bichette signing with the Phillies, who had already invested $300 million in Unique Recipe Turner.
The Mets had been reeling from Tucker’s rejection, amidst mortifying vagueposting from Steve Cohen. (Significantly, in case you’re price greater than $500 million, you shouldn’t be allowed on social media.) However credit score to Cohen and David Stearns, who abruptly discovered themselves with $220 million earmarked for Tucker, and no Tucker to spend that cash on. They not solely grabbed the next-best bat left available on the market, in so doing they put a finger within the eye of their division rival.
The Phillies had been in place to supply Bichette extra safety, however nobody — besides the Dodgers, clearly — may compete with the Mets’ provide when it comes to money up entrance. Their pursuit of Bichette had at all times been opportunistic to some extent, made attainable by different groups’ lack of curiosity in signing the previous Blue Jay to a long-term deal. So inside about two hours of Bichette’s cope with the Mets being introduced, the Phillies pivoted again to Plan A and introduced again catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Philadelphia’s provide — reportedly $200 million over seven years — was in step with normal apply. Nobody thought Bichette would’ve been price $28 million in his age-34 season, however you pay a bit extra on the again finish in an effort to not should pay sticker worth for the participant’s prime. It’s how the Phillies obtained Turner and Bryce Harper, how the Yankees obtained Gerrit Cole, how the Dodgers obtained Shohei Ohtani, and so forth, and so forth.
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However when the Dodgers outbid everybody for Tucker — $57.1 million AAV after accounting for deferrals, by far the most important wage in baseball historical past — they did away with the artifice. They’re paying a star participant full worth for his prime years alone, and letting another person cope with the decline section.
Now the Mets are doing the identical with Bichette, giving him the joint-sixth-largest AAV in baseball historical past, and the third-largest — behind Tucker and Juan Soto — for a place participant.
Bichette is nowhere close to the third-best place participant in baseball, however he’s uniquely positioned to make the most of this contract construction, which permits him to hit free company once more, subsequent yr, with out being tagged with a qualifying provide.
The apparent template for Bichette is Alex Bregman, one other feisty, undersized infielder. Final yr, Bregman spurned longer provides to signal a three-year, $120 million contract, much less deferrals, with opt-outs, with the Purple Sox. Bregman pocketed $40 million, posted an excellent yr (.273/.360/.462, 3.5 WAR), opted out, and signed a five-year, $175 million contract with the Cubs.
If Bichette opts out after this season and indicators precisely that contract a yr from now, he’ll make $217 million over six years, which places him within the black versus the Phillies’ provide. And that estimate might be conservative.
Bregman obtained drafted out of faculty and signed an extension with the Astros throughout his crew management years; he was three years older when he hit free company than Bichette is now. Bichette, who turns 28 in March, is definitely the sixth-youngest place participant on this free agent/posting class, and 4 of the 5 gamers forward of him had been non-tendered after placing up destructive WAR in 2025. The one participant accessible on the open market this winter who was youthful than Bichette and has an affordable probability of being price a crap is Munetaka Murakami.
If Bichette posts one other season within the neighborhood of 4 WAR and re-enters free company earlier than his age-29 season, he’ll nonetheless be one of many youngest gamers within the class. If he needs to signal his seven-year, settle-down-forever deal then, he’ll nonetheless find a way to take action.
Rattling, that’s quite a lot of ink spilled about economics. Let’s get to the enjoyable half: What can Bo do for the Mets? Right here’s what ZiPS says:
ZiPS Projection – Bo Bichette (Third Base)
| 12 months | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .294 | .339 | .445 | 555 | 73 | 163 | 31 | 1 | 17 | 80 | 37 | 97 | 5 | 121 | 3.8 |
| 2027 | .287 | .335 | .433 | 550 | 71 | 158 | 30 | 1 | 16 | 78 | 38 | 96 | 5 | 117 | 3.4 |
| 2028 | .284 | .332 | .431 | 538 | 68 | 153 | 29 | 1 | 16 | 75 | 37 | 94 | 4 | 116 | 3.1 |
If you wish to go the projected contract worth route, that’s $39 million over one yr, $76 million over two, and $111 million over three. So roughly what the Mets are going to pay him, with the caveat that if Bichette produces something just like the season ZiPS foresees in 2026, the final two years of this contract are going to be tutorial.
Offensively, Bichette is a recognized amount; I discussed the Sluggish Trea Turner factor up high, and that applies. He’s an ultra-high-contact spray hitter. He doesn’t stroll a lot, however for a hitter with 20-homer energy, he barely ever swings and misses. Bichette has a .294 profession batting common, which doesn’t appear exceptional in case you grew up watching Ichiro and Derek Jeter and studying about Ted Williams and Tony Gwynn, however I don’t assume most individuals recognize how uncommon that type of hitter is lately.
You need to know what number of lively hitters there are proper now with a .300 profession batting common? Two: Jose Altuve and Freddie Freeman, at .303 and .300, respectively. Altuve shed three factors of profession batting common in 2025, so there’s a good probability that by this time subsequent yr there will probably be zero lively .300 hitters.
Having a mega-aggressive hitter like Bichette will make for an attention-grabbing distinction with Soto, some of the selective hitters of all time. In a playoff sequence — which, getting there may be the minimal expectation for the Mets — it’ll pressure opponents to provide you with a variety of approaches towards New York’s most harmful hitters.
Will this strategy age effectively? I don’t know. Bichette already doesn’t have a ton of bat pace, and if he doesn’t reasonable his strategy into his 30s, he may find yourself declining rapidly. However with a three-year contract, that’s completely not the Mets’ downside.
The large query mark for Bichette is his protection. He was by no means a fantastic defensive shortstop to start with, and lower-body accidents have sapped his vary over the previous two seasons; in 2025, he had first-percentile defensive vary on the place.
The Mets, with Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien as a double play mixture, are one of many least possible groups in baseball to be tempted to throw Bichette out at brief. Bichette has extra of a conventional second baseman’s physique kind, however he’s been simply fantastic fielding what balls he’s been in a position to attain, and his arm has truly graded out higher than Semien’s lately, so I don’t count on third base to be an insurmountable problem.
The one awkward a part of Bichette’s match with the Mets is what this implies for Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. Eradicating Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso from the lineup would have opened up house for New York’s two talented-but-frustrating nook infielders to slip down the defensive spectrum. However then the Mets went out and obtained not solely Semien and Bichette, but in addition Jorge Polanco. It’s a distinct logjam than earlier than, however a logjam nonetheless.
Each Baty and Vientos are of their remaining yr of crew management earlier than arbitration — not that I’d count on Cohen, who has a really delinquent degree of non-public wealth, to sweat the odd couple million in any case. They’d be efficient, if underutilized, as a DH platoon and harm insurance coverage. Or the Mets may make the most of different groups’ want for nook infield assist — simply this week I wrote in regards to the Purple Sox as a possible purchaser — and shore up a pitching employees that invitations one to tug one’s collar and grimace.
These are issues for one more day. A crew with Bo Bichette within the lineup is best than a crew with out Bo Bichette within the lineup. The Mets don’t have to consider this any extra deeply than that.