Damaged Report: Dodgers Land Prime Free Agent Kyle Tucker Whereas Setting a New Contract Commonplace

The Dodgers have struck once more. For the second winter out of the previous three, they’ve snuck in and landed the highest free agent in the marketplace, simply when he was anticipated to signal elsewhere. However not like Shohei Ohtani, who in December 2023 practically signed with the Blue Jays earlier than agreeing to a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers, one by which all however $2 million per season was deferred, Kyle Tucker has gone for a short-term deal of 4 years and $240 million.

In accordance to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the deal features a $64 million signing bonus; $30 million of the whole wage is deferred, decreasing the online current worth to $57.1 million a 12 months. That also signifies that Tucker, who will flip 29 on Saturday, has set a file for the best common annual worth of any contract, exceeding that of final 12 months’s record-setter, Juan Soto, by about 12%, albeit on a a lot shorter deal:

In accordance with a number of reviews, Tucker’s deal consists of opt-outs after each the 2027 and ’28 campaigns, permitting him to hunt a brand new contract as he heads into both his age-31 or age-32 season. Till then, he’ll be part of the star-studded lineup of the game’s first back-to-back champions in a quarter-century. The Dodgers might sport future Corridor of Famers in Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, however their outfield was an space of weak spot in 2025. Dodgers outfielders mixed to hit .240/.299/.415 whereas rating seventeenth within the majors with a 98 wRC+ and 18th with 4.3 WAR. Whereas Andy Pages had a breakout age-24 season because the staff’s major middle fielder, left fielder Michael Conforto was such a free-agent bust that he was left off the postseason roster, and proper fielder Teoscar Hernández was unable to duplicate his stellar 2024 and was a defensive legal responsibility besides. In the course of the postseason, Dodgers outfielders hit .209/.258/.332, with Hernández accounting for 5 of the unit’s six house runs.

How supervisor Dave Roberts will match the items collectively stays to be seen, however the path of least resistance might be to return Hernández to left area (the place he spent most of his time in 2024) and slot the defensively superior Tucker in proper. It’s additionally potential Hernández could possibly be traded with a purpose to get some wage aid; he’s assured $33 million, together with the subsequent two seasons’ salaries and a $6.5 million buyout of a membership possibility for 2028, with a lot of that cash deferred as nicely.

As for Tucker, he’s not a family identify on par with Choose, Ohtani, or Soto, the final three free brokers to prime our annual offseason lists are, however because the begin of the 2021 season, he’s tenth amongst all place gamers in WAR (23.4) and wRC+ (143) regardless of lacking half of the 2024 season. Drafted by the Astros out of a Tampa highschool with the fifth choose in 2015, he reached the majors in mid-2018 and caught round for good beginning in September 2019. He helped the Astros to 6 straight playoff appearances, together with three World Sequence appearances and a championship in 2022, and made the American League All-Star staff yearly from 2022–24. Involved that they’d not be capable to retain him in free company — or extra to the purpose, have been unwilling to go as excessive because the biggest-spending groups — the Astros traded him to the Cubs in December 2024 in change for infielder Isaac Paredes, outfielder Cam Smith, and right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski.

Tucker made one other All-Star staff in 2025 whereas serving to the Cubs win 92 video games, declare a Wild Card berth, and beat the Padres earlier than bowing to the Brewers within the Division Sequence. But his season was an uneven one. He hit .291/.395/.537 (157 wRC+) with 17 homers by the tip of June, however slipped right into a protracted droop initially of July; for a 39-game stretch, he hit .184/.321/.228 with only one homer. On August 21, the Cubs revealed that Tucker had performed by a hairline fracture in his proper ring finger, suffered throughout a June 1 slide. Whereas the damage didn’t align along with his drop in manufacturing, the announcement, which adopted a quick benching for a psychological and mechanical reset, appeared to offer a jolt. He homered 3 times over the subsequent two days (August 21–22) and tore the duvet off the wall for 2 weeks, however a left calf pressure sidelined him for many of September.

Tucker’s last .266/.377/.464 line thus appears to be like slightly disappointing, notably given his career-low slugging proportion and full-season low 22 homers (plus 25 steals). Even so, his 136 wRC+ matches what he did from 2020–23, and his 4.5 WAR was on par with these season’s marks. It’s the .289/.408/.585 (179 wRC+) line and 4.2 WAR he put up in 78 video games in 2024 — with three months misplaced to a fracture in his proper shin — that will have distorted expectations about his capability to land a contract within the $400 million to $500 million vary.

Clearly that type of cash wasn’t on the market for Tucker at this juncture. In accordance with reviews from Tuesday, the Mets made Tucker a proposal with a $50 million AAV, although it was believed to be just for three or 4 years. Experiences from MLB Community’s Jim Duquette, the New York Submit’s Jon Heyman, and The Athletic’s Will Sammon point out that the Mets’ last provide was 4 years and $220 million, with a $75 million signing bonus, the identical opt-outs because the Dodgers, however no deferred cash — a $55 million AAV. The Blue Jays have been stated to have made a longer-term provide, although neither the {dollars} nor the size was laid out in the report from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The Yankees confirmed curiosity however are usually not recognized to have made a proper provide; as an alternative, they’e been extra centered on re-signing Cody Bellinger, with ESPN’s Buster Olney reporting that they’d supplied him a five-year take care of an AAV above $30 million, however that these talks are at an deadlock. The Cubs issued Tucker a $22.025 million qualifying provide, however as soon as he declined it, they moved on; earlier this week, they landed Alex Bregman on a five-year, $175 million deal that included deferred cash.

The Dodgers, whose $417.3 million luxurious tax payroll for 2025 led to them being assessed a file $169.4 million aggressive steadiness tax, had little to no buzz hooked up to their pursuit of Tucker. They didn’t have any high-salaried gamers coming off their payroll, they usually already made a modest splash in the course of the December Winter Conferences by signing nearer Edwin Díaz to a three-year, $69 million deal.

One motive the Dodgers would possibly favor Tucker on a short-term deal is to keep away from blocking their prime outfield prospects, Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope. Each are headed into their age-21 seasons having performed just a few video games apiece at Double-A on the finish of final season (4 for De Paula, six for Hope), with the previous, a 55-FV prospect who topped the current Dodgers record, anticipated to succeed in the majors in 2027, and the latter a 50-FV prospect anticipated to reach a 12 months later. These aren’t precisely can’t-miss guys, however they’re necessary depth, notably because the Díaz and Tucker signings carry further prices. On condition that the Dodgers are nicely over the tax threshold, signing Díaz — to whom the Mets issued a qualifying provide — already meant they’d forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, in addition to $1 million from their worldwide bonus pool as a penalty. For signing Tucker, they’ll lose their third- and sixth-highest picks as nicely.

Courtesy of Dan Szymborski, right here’s the ZiPS projection for Tucker:

That’s 13.0 WAR over the four-year span, a projection for which ZiPS suggests a $149 million contract. So sure, this seems to be a considerable overpay even earlier than factoring within the further taxes this can price the Dodgers — which ought to let you know that for as quiet as they’ve been of their pursuit, they actually wished him.

On condition that it’s the two-time champions including the primary free agent in the marketplace, setting a file for AAV, and utilizing some quantity of deferred cash to flex their muscle, tthis isn’t more likely to cut back anybody’s ire in the direction of the Dodgers, or rival followers’ and executives’ discomfort with their mixture of spending and success. Quite the opposite, it would add to the din relating to the sport’s monetary inequities and the seeming inevitability of a lockout subsequent winter, renew requires a wage cap, and possibly increase gross sales of fainting couches amongst staff homeowners. It’s doubtless that the subsequent Collective Bargaining Settlement will create even stiffer penalties for the crime of making an attempt to win. Till then, the Dodgers are gunning for a three-peat.