2026 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The workforce order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent workforce up is the Houston Astros.

Batters

For the primary time since 2016, the Houston Astros missed the playoffs. Now, it could be a mistake to name the 2025 season a catastrophe, as they had been simply barely squeezed out of October baseball by advantage of an terrible concept that I hate with each fiber of my being: the tiebreaker. Nonetheless, it’s an sad milestone for this period’s Astros, particularly coming after the departure of two of the workforce’s key gamers, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, earlier than Opening Day. The prospect of shedding Framber Valdez after the season makes the early elimination really feel even worse.

One of many essential causes Houston missed the playoffs is solely that it’s actually arduous to make up for shedding Tucker and Bregman in a single winter. Add in Yordan Alvarez’s season being ruined because of hand issues, and also you’re speaking fairly a number of wins that immediately went poof! into the aether. Consequently, the Astros fell to twelfth in place participant WAR, the primary time they’ve been that low over a full season since 2014.

It’s most likely no coincidence that the final time Houston struggled, within the COVID-shortened 2020 season, they had been additionally lacking Alvarez. An Alvarez who’s wholesome and taking part in at his regular degree is essential to Houston returning to the postseason, and might be much more essential than it was in 2021. Naturally, ZiPS isn’t penciling Alvarez in for 150 video games after lacking a lot time, however even when it’s extra skeptical than Steamer, he lands proper on the prime of the WAR pile.

The Astros misplaced the battle final 12 months, however not like a variety of shedding battles all through historical past (Vicksburg, Manizkert, Yiling, and so forth), Houston’s 2025 shortfall doesn’t sign the franchise’s eventual doom. The Astros stay a powerful workforce with real pluses throughout the roster, and it wouldn’t be remotely stunning to see them win the AL West in 2026, even when ZiPS at present offers the Mariners a average edge. What has modified is the form of the workforce. This roster not resembles the 2017–24 Astros, with overwhelming star energy and a farm system that reliably provided reinforcements. As an alternative, Houston now seems to be extra like a well-constructed classic Cardinals membership: good nearly in all places, harmful on a given night time, however not a workforce that evokes dread the second it exhibits up on the schedule. It’s additionally a membership that’s far much less able to filling its personal holes internally than it was at its peak.

ZiPS doesn’t fairly consider that Jeremy Peña is a six-win man, but it surely’s arduous to complain a couple of 28-year-old who’s projected to have their second-best profession season. The lineup tasks as average-to-good just about in all places else, with ZiPS pondering that Carlos Correa nonetheless has some fuel left within the tank, forecasting a still-gentle decline for Jose Altuve, and having an honest quantity of religion in Jake Meyers and Zach Cole. Whereas Christian Walker’s first season in Houston impressed some José Abreu flashbacks, ZiPS thinks Walker has extra left in him than Abreu did at an identical stage. This lineup ought to return to the highest 10 total, although I feel it’s a stretch to foretell way more than that.

Pitchers

Hunter Brown was one among my breakout picks in 2024, so it wasn’t stunning to see him proceed to enhance in 2025, to the purpose the place he was a official Cy Younger contender. ZiPS likes him, too, and as nicely it ought to: I’d take out a stick of RAM as punishment for its insolence in any other case.

After Brown, nonetheless, the rotation seems to be extra serviceable than glowing. Tatsuya Imai is a very strong pickup at that value, however ZiPS by no means noticed him as being in the identical tier as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and even Shota Imanaga, and it seems MLB groups felt equally since he was landed for simply three years and $54 million. If the pc is true, he doesn’t exchange Valdez’s efficiency, and neither does former Royal and Diamondback Ryan Weiss, who’s again from Korea, although ZiPS does suppose that he’s greater than an inexpensive back-of-rotation possibility.

The projections for Spencer Arrighetti and Mike Burrows are averageish, with ZiPS not seeing a excessive ceiling for both participant. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. each must be thought-about dangerous because of their harm histories, although the percentages are that at the very least one among them will get again to the place they as soon as had been. I’m a little bit extra bullish on Javier; McCullers has missed much more time and pitched so much worse.

The rotation may be a bit underwhelming, however the bullpen seems to be like one of many higher ones in baseball; of the groups I’ve run, ZiPS ranks them because the fifth-best ‘pen, at the very least utilizing the depth chart taking part in time. There aren’t that many groups left to go at this level, both. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, and Steven Okert is a troublesome late-inning gauntlet to wade by way of, and assuming his elbow issues are resolved, the pc will fortunately hearth up the marching band for Bennett Sousa. ZiPS doesn’t thoughts Enyel De Los Santos and thinks Weiss will likely be greater than ample if he results in the bullpen. One other arm would nonetheless be welcome, but it surely isn’t completely essential.

All instructed, ZiPS sees the Astros as roughly a 90-win workforce. I feel in the event that they actually need to make the Mariners sweat, one other beginning pitcher can be a useful addition.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate workforce projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 because of harm, and gamers who had been launched in 2025. So sure, for those who see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to type a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected workforce WAR. You will need to do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a workforce will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You may, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.