Earlier this week, I appeared into the curious case of Benjamin Button. Er, no, that’s not proper. I appeared into the truth that the typical age of huge league hitters retains declining, like Button, whereas pitchers haven’t adopted go well with. There are any variety of potential explanations for that sample, and if the thriller appeals to you, I extremely recommend studying the feedback of that article, the place our wonderful readers have superior various strong theories. I feel there’s loads of meat left on the bone in determining what’s inflicting this development, however I received’t be delving into that (a lot) right now. As an alternative, I made like Woodward and Bernstein and adopted the cash.
Age is a good proxy for service time; older gamers have usually, although not alway, been within the league longer than youthful gamers. Equally, service time is a good proxy for wage; gamers who’ve been within the league longer usually earn more money than newcomers, for quite a lot of causes. So is our information actually simply saying pitcher salaries are going up? Nicely, form of.
I took salaries for all main league gamers beginning in 2019, discarding the abbreviated 2020 season. I break up them up by kind – pitchers in a single bucket, hitters in one other, and Shohei Ohtani in each. Whole pitcher and hitter salaries have each gone up – passage of time, inflation, and so forth. However after an enormous improve heading into 2022, when seven completely different hitters signed nine-figure contracts, the overall outlay to hitters has leveled off. In the meantime, pitching salaries are catching up:
As an apart, I solely pulled information via 2019 as a result of it’s outrageously tough to get full wage information. For those who’re searching for Opening Day annualized salaries, positive, these are reported. For those who’re searching for free company contracts, once more, fairly simple to search out. There aren’t any disputes about what Freddie Freeman’s wage was in 2025; it’s public file. However what about Freeman’s former teammate Justin Dean, who racked up 52 days of service time in his debut season? What about break up contracts? Late debuts? Up-and-down sorts? I labored out a way for what I take into account an excellent approximation of these salaries, however I don’t really feel assured going again earlier than the beginning of RosterResource’s database, which begins in 2019. Even then, that is approximate, although as I discussed, I’m assured that it’s an excellent approximation.
I didn’t discover a lot compelling proof of the shift in direction of older pitchers and youthful hitters within the wage information, no less than at a excessive degree. However that’s by no means stopped me earlier than, and with such granular information, there’s no motive to accept the 40,000-foot view. Subsequent, I separated the hitters and pitchers by service time group to have a look at the proportion of positional spending going to every group over time. There’s no apparent fingerprint of adjusting financial conduct right here:
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P.c of Wage By Service Time, Hitters
| Yr | Pre-Arb% | Arb% | FA% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 11.3% | 27.3% | 61.4% |
| 2021 | 13.2% | 23.6% | 63.3% |
| 2022 | 12.8% | 25.9% | 61.3% |
| 2023 | 12.3% | 24.7% | 63.1% |
| 2024 | 12.7% | 24.2% | 63.1% |
| 2025 | 12.1% | 24.5% | 63.4% |
P.c of Wage By Service Time, Pitchers
| Yr | Pre-Arb% | Arb% | FA% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 15.5% | 24.0% | 60.4% |
| 2021 | 21.0% | 22.1% | 56.9% |
| 2022 | 18.0% | 24.3% | 57.7% |
| 2023 | 16.5% | 25.5% | 58.1% |
| 2024 | 18.9% | 21.5% | 59.6% |
| 2025 | 17.3% | 19.7% | 63.0% |
However I did discover one thing attention-grabbing after breaking the information up on this means. The share of innings coated by free agent pitchers spiked in 2025, whereas the share of innings coated by free agent hitters is pretty fixed over the previous half-decade. A lot of the enjoying time goes to pre-arb gamers, significantly on the pitching finish, which is intriguing within the context of common pitcher age:
P.c of Enjoying Time By Service Time Standing, Hitters
| Yr | Pre-Arb% | Arb% | FA% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 48.2% | 25.2% | 26.6% |
| 2021 | 44.6% | 26.9% | 28.5% |
| 2022 | 45.2% | 28.7% | 26.1% |
| 2023 | 46.3% | 26.2% | 27.5% |
| 2024 | 48.6% | 24.8% | 26.6% |
| 2025 | 48.5% | 24.1% | 27.4% |
P.c of Enjoying Time By Service Time Standing, Pitchers
| Yr | Pre-Arb% | Arb% | FA% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 53.1% | 22.5% | 24.5% |
| 2021 | 53.7% | 23.2% | 23.0% |
| 2022 | 51.8% | 25.5% | 22.8% |
| 2023 | 50.0% | 25.2% | 24.8% |
| 2024 | 51.6% | 24.8% | 23.6% |
| 2025 | 51.1% | 21.8% | 27.1% |
That’s probably not a brand new conduct, although. Groups have all the time used a variety of pre-arb pitchers. As we’ve coated extensively in these discussions, pitchers get injured lots, and replacements have to be discovered. That’s usually a rookie up for a recreation or two, or maybe a low-leverage reliever overlaying innings. Clearly, although, these guys aren’t sticking round lengthy sufficient to have an effect on the averages. Pre-arb pitchers seize a bigger share of enjoying time than their hitter counterparts, however that flips by the point of arbitration.
Let me put all of those overlapping tables and percentages right into a easy graph. What’s been happening prior to now few years? Older pitchers are extra vital to groups’ plans, and they also’re getting paid:
That adjustments the relative worth of buying and selling for a cost-controlled younger pitcher. Why did the Cubs ship a wealthy treasure trove of prospects to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera? I’m positive this isn’t the one motive, however a variety of it boils right down to that graph, drawing a development line, and making a comedic “uh-oh” sound.
I hope I’m not projecting extra confidence for my part of those tendencies than I really really feel. I discover them phenomenally tough to interpret. I’ve quite a lot of uncertainty round every particular person a part of the equation. Will hitters hold trending youthful whereas pitchers development older? Perhaps, however there are pure limits to that, and who is aware of what future coaching or expertise acquisition patterns will appear to be? What would a world draft or additional minor league contraction imply for amateurs? Will the cash hold flowing to the identical sorts of gamers? It’s very onerous to know; this yr’s free company class is sending combined indicators. Can groups coax extra innings out of their current youthful pitchers? What’s going to the following CBA should say about all of this, and about wage and roster building usually?
I don’t even understand how a lot I don’t learn about all of these subjects, which makes my opinion of the Cabrera commerce and related ones from final yr decidedly unsure. However if you happen to made me put phrases to it proper now, I’d say this: Too many groups without delay bought caught enjoying the identical recreation of bringing in veteran pitchers to enhance the hitters they’d so fastidiously and productively developed. On the identical time, the Dodgers and the Mets, two groups that till not too long ago have been creating a variety of their very own starters for higher or worse, did the associated fee/profit evaluation and began bringing in free agent starters as a substitute. The provision of veteran free agent innings could be up, however the demand is up by greater than that. For those who want pitching and don’t need to spend in free company, you haven’t any selection however to just accept the present market charge for controllable pitching: the moon and the celebs.
Is it price it to maneuver a bunch of prospects for controllable pitching now? Do you have to go along with high-AAV one-year offers for veterans, hoping the fever will break after the following CBA? Is the proper transfer to only chunk the bullet and pay Framber Valdez no matter it takes? Heck, must you simply “punt pitching” for a yr and hope to be uncommonly wholesome? I’m glad that I don’t should make these selections. Within the magical Christmasland the place I’m operating a baseball group, the world is already appearing in response to my needs, so I’d simply draft Paul Skenes. However in actual life, you don’t get to do this. For entrance places of work throughout the majors, it’s unquestionably some of the vital team-building dilemmas proper now, and it’ll be fascinating to see the remainder of this winter’s free company interval play out.