Welcome to PhamGraphs | FanGraphs Baseball

“It’s not being quantified prefer it ought to.” That’s what Tommy Pham informed Will Sammon and Eno Sarris of The Athletic. Pham isn’t your stereotypical ballplayer who hates superior stats. He’s a visionary who desires them to be much more superior, to think about much more context, to do an excellent higher job of turning each tiny factor that transpires on the sector into chilly, exhausting numbers that may be credited to or debited from a ballplayer’s account. On Monday, Sammon and Sarris printed an article that described Pham’s dream of a brighter sabermetric future. “I wish to create a system that’s going to alter all that,” he mentioned. Tommy Pham, the old fashioned grit-and-grinder with 12 years within the majors below his belt, desires us nerds to get even nerdier, and he’s right here to assist. He even has a reputation in thoughts: PhamGraphs. “It’s fairly self-explanatory,” he mentioned.

Initially, we right here at FanGraphs wish to let Tommy Pham know that we’re going to sue your ass again to the stone age for trademark infringement so extremely flattered by this charming homage. Furthermore, we’re right here to assist. We’re up for the problem. We wish in. Welcome to PhamGraphs.

I can relate to Pham’s plight personally, as a result of as soon as upon a time, I, too, created my very own FanGraphs knockoff. Particularly, I skilled a burgeoning enthusiasm for apples in the summertime of 2016, so I began a spreadsheet the place I’d listing all of the apples I ate, fee them on a scale of 1 to 5, and write a evaluate. The spreadsheet was titled AppleGraphs, and I figured it that if I actually appreciated monitoring my apples, I’d ultimately flip it right into a weblog. As an alternative, I saved it up for a pair months after which forgot about it. I by no means confirmed it to anyone. Right here’s an excerpt.

I wrote a complete of 13 entries earlier than it petered out (although if some enterprise capitalist is studying this and needs to throw 1,000,000 {dollars} my method, I’ll gladly resurrect AppleGraphs as a weblog or a publication or a zine or no matter unwieldy medium you and also you blood cash would favor). You’ll be able to learn the entire thing right here, however provided that you actually, actually don’t have something higher to do, as a result of, as soon as once more, it was only a spreadsheet the place I described apples as a method of killing time at my desk till FanGraphs printed a brand new article for me to learn.

My terribly roundabout level right here is that, as somebody with expertise ripping off David Appelman (with apples, no much less), I’m decided to take Pham very significantly and reply his factors as finest I can, one after the other. Nevertheless, I wish to observe first that Pham’s feedback revealed two overarching considerations. First, he desires the numbers to function extra context, to get into deserved efficiency fairly than precise efficiency. Weighted Runs Created Plus, our flagship hitting metric, is park-adjusted and league-adjusted. The numbers are measured in opposition to the league common, which is all the time 100, they usually’re adjusted primarily based on the hitting setting of the park a hitter performs in. However they’re not designed to point out deserved efficiency. They’re designed to point out how nicely you carried out relative to the league common. They don’t think about energy of opponent or batted ball luck or a bunch of different elements. Nevertheless, these numbers can be found to Pham if he desires them. DRC+, or Deserved Runs Created Plus, is the flagship offensive metric of Baseball Prospectus. Deserved efficiency is what they do at BP. That will simply be the location for Pham, and he could wish to rethink his branding.

Truly, now that I point out it, I ought to most likely observe that Baseball Reference WAR additionally takes the energy of your opponent into consideration. The purpose is, Pham can preserve his choices open. The sabermetric neighborhood is a giant tent. We’re all Pham.

That mentioned, you must cease someplace. It’s unimaginable to issue every thing in. There’s no scarcity of examples. When you’re Randy Johnson and also you detonate a mourning dove that divebombs into the trail of your fastball, and the umpire calls the pitch a ball (which might have been the suitable name), ought to that ball actually matter in opposition to you? When you’re Rafael Ortega and a double falls in over your head as a result of a territorial goose has colonized deep middle area and compelled you to play too shallow, must you actually have your defensive metrics docked? When you’re Cody Bellinger and a few room service hen wings provide you with such horrendous meals poisoning that you must miss a sport and bat .143 with a 24 wRC+ over the subsequent two weeks, is that basically all of your fault? Shouldn’t a few of the -0.2 WAR you set up over that timeframe be doled out to the chef on the resort, to Perdue AgriBusiness, and to the chickens themselves? I may preserve going all day. I’m not even achieved with the chicken examples but. You may preserve going without end as a result of every thing’s related. Sooner or later, you simply have to attract the road and take a look at what occurred on the sector.

Pham’s second overarching concern was, clearly, to burnish his numbers. He’s a 37-year-old free agent who’s searching for a deal. He has performed for 9 totally different groups during the last 5 seasons and put up a mixed 0.1 WAR throughout the final two, and he’s been on one thing of a media marketing campaign lately (and never so lately). In November, Pham revealed that he’s been enjoying by means of plantar fasciitis for the reason that second half of 2023, however, conveniently, he’s all higher now. These new feedback little doubt specific his true beliefs, however additionally they appear designed to place a optimistic spin on his efficiency with a purpose to get himself a superb deal – or as Zach Crizer put it over at The Bandwagon, “Tommy Pham has some concepts about stats that might make Tommy Pham look higher.”

Now let’s get to Pham’s points. He made two explicit factors. The primary was that enjoying for a shedding staff, particularly one which loses a variety of shut video games just like the Pirates, signifies that you are inclined to face higher pitching, as a result of all of the opponents who find yourself beating you must use their high-leverage arms with a purpose to shut out their victories. The close-game qualification is a crucial one, and it takes a few of the sting out of Pham’s argument, as a result of dangerous groups find yourself in simply as many blowouts nearly as good groups, and the leverage is low for each groups at that time. If the Phillies are blowing your doorways off, they’re not going to waste Jhoan Duran in a non-save scenario. Now, the again of a superb staff’s bullpen is certain to be higher than the again of a foul staff’s, however the distinction isn’t going to be fairly as massive.

Nonetheless, Pham is correct that he’s been going through more durable arms than traditional. Along with noting all of the shut video games the Pirates performed final yr, he talked about that he switched groups twice in the course of the 2024 season, and that these strikes got here at inopportune instances. A collection of scheduling quirks triggered him to catch three straight extended stretches the place his present staff was going through off in opposition to notably stiff competitors. Consequently, he believed that he confronted significantly better pitching than most batters. (He additionally talked about that he mentioned this along with his agent, who confirmed his hunch, and I’ve to confess that I’m a sucker for this line of reasoning. Anybody who has ever had an argument with a big different has heard some model of the road, “I requested my buddies, they usually all assume I’m proper and also you’re fallacious.” Regardless of how dangerous the struggle, it’s all the time not less than somewhat bit amusing.)

We checked this out, and after I say we, I imply David Appelman. David calculated the typical ERA and FIP of the pitchers that each batter confronted in each 2024 and 2025. In 2024, the pitchers Pham confronted had a mixed ERA of 4.02, the Nineteenth-lowest amongst all batters with not less than 400 plate appearances. That put him within the ninetieth percentile. In 2025, his opponents had a 4.17 ERA, which put him within the seventy fifth percentile. He actually has confronted robust pitching during the last two years. It’s not unprecedented – any person’s obtained to be within the 99th percentile yearly (sorry Royce Lewis) – however it’s actual.

Sadly, Pham’s argument falls somewhat bit flat at this level. When you attempt to give him credit score by regressing his efficiency to account for this larger diploma of issue, you study that the impact is far smaller than you’d anticipate. In 2025, Pham confronted pitchers whose mixed ERA was 0.08 factors decrease than the league common, so let’s give him credit score for these additional factors. There are a number of methods to run the numbers, however Ben Clemens confirmed me a fast and soiled option to do it utilizing constants from The E book. Skip the remainder of this paragraph for those who don’t like math. One level of wOBA works out to roughly half a run per 600 plate appearances, and 600 plate appearances works out to roughly 141 innings. Half a run over 141 innings works out to 0.032 factors of ERA. Now we have now a conversion fee: one level of wOBA equals 0.032 factors of ERA.

Which means if we give Pham 0.08 additional factors of ERA to deliver him as much as the league common, it solely provides 2.5 factors to his wOBA. That’s it. He goes from .308 to .311. Among the many 215 gamers with not less than 400 plate appearances in 2025, that takes him from the A hundred and fiftieth-highest wOBA to the 145th.

If we use FIP fairly than ERA, which Pham would presumably choose as a result of it’s a greater indication of a pitcher’s true expertise stage, we’d add just one.3 factors of wOBA. (We are able to go even additional: If we use the pitchers’ projected ERA or FIP on the time of every plate look in keeping with Steamer – successfully displaying how good everyone thought the pitchers had been on the time – then Pham truly confronted an simpler slate of pitchers than the typical batter!) As I discussed earlier, DRC+ takes the energy of opponent into consideration, and that’s seemingly why it graded Pham larger than wRC+ during the last two seasons, however that bonus was simply three factors in 2024 (a 92 wRC+ and 95 DRC+) and 4 factors in 2025 (a 94 wRC+ and 98 DRC+). None of this turns him into even a league-average bat. So sure, Pham confronted robust pitching, however no, it doesn’t make all that a lot distinction.

That mentioned, I don’t wish to let all these numbers get in the way in which of a superb story. Whereas we’re speaking about all of the high-leverage arms Pham has confronted, we have to observe that he was nice in high-leverage conditions. In 2025, he ran a 168 wRC+ throughout 40 high-leverage plate appearances, batting .355. Over the previous two seasons, his 136 wRC+ in high-leverage conditions places him within the eightieth percentile of all hitters (minimal 80 high-leverage plate appearances). If I had been Tommy Pham, I’d be ensuring that high-leverage conditions had been a part of the dialog, too.

Pham’s second level was about how wind can play havoc with outfield protection, and right here I’ll depend on an excerpt:

Pham remembers a selected play from final season that pissed off him because it associated to how defensive metrics are used to worth gamers. In a sport in opposition to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was enjoying left area. A ball hit roughly 360 toes with a 90-mph exit velocity short-hopped the outfield wall. The wind carried it. Pham was enjoying in, so he couldn’t get to the ball. The play mirrored poorly in his defensive numbers.

“I obtained docked on the ball as a result of Statcast doesn’t issue the wind half,” Pham mentioned. “Once I discovered that, I’m like, OK, if the wind’s blowing out, I must play somewhat bit deeper.

“It’s a very flawed system. However it’s getting factored into our price.”

Earlier than we get into the play in query, let’s begin with the half the place Pham says that he didn’t study till age 37 that he ought to most likely play a bit deeper when the wind is blowing out actually exhausting. That appears – how do I put this respectfully? – unlikely to be true. Certainly, this sabermetric visionary had, you understand, considered what the wind does earlier than the yr 2025. Pham makes a sound level about how defensive metrics have to this point been unable to account for wind, however the instance he makes use of for instance it’s, by his personal account, only a story about how he was positioned poorly.

A number of the particulars are off, however I used to be capable of finding the play in query. I perceive why Pham has it caught in his thoughts. It price the Pirates a sport. It was a line drive double from Caleb Durbin on Could 25. It left the bat at 97.1 mph, traveled 371 toes, obtained over Pham’s head, and short-hopped the wall. The Pirates had been main 5-3 within the high of the eighth, and since the tying run was on second base, Pham was enjoying a bit shallower than traditional. In 2025, the typical left fielder at PNC Park performed 301 toes deep, and Pham averaged 295. On this play, he was at 293 toes. He was ensuring that he’d have the ability to maintain the runner at third if Durbin singled. For that cause, I’m not so certain that he would’ve been enjoying deeper even when he had factored within the wind. The double scored two runs, tying the sport at 5, and Durbin scored the sport’s deciding run when the subsequent batter additionally doubled to Pham in left area.

Pham was proper that the wind aided the ball a bit. Over the course of the 2025 season, 12 balls had been pulled on the similar launch angle and exit velocity off the identical pitch sort, they usually traveled a median of 353 toes. This ball went an additional 17 toes. Nonetheless, his argument has a number of issues. The primary is that Statcast solely gave this ball a catch likelihood of 30% to start with, due to the wall penalty. It graded out as a four-star play, which signifies that it was so troublesome that it barely damage Pham’s numbers. Second, at this stage of his profession, Pham doesn’t make four-star catches anyway. His numbers going again on the ball have been dangerous for years now. He’s 37 and never that man anymore (except his plantar fasciitis actually is gone without end). In truth, lower than every week earlier, Elly De La Cruz hit an almost similar ball to Pham in left area. Durbin’s ball required Pham to journey 79 toes over 4.7 seconds. De La Cruz hit his more durable, nevertheless it required Pham to journey 78 toes over 4.7 seconds, and it landed in just about the very same spot. On each balls, Pham had an opportunity to make the catch however determined to decelerate — particularly on De La Cruz’s — fairly than danger harm by crashing into the wall.

Third, it’s additionally vital to notice that the Statcast numbers right here, not less than to some extent, factored within the wind already. These catch likelihood numbers aren’t excellent, however that is precisely the type of batted ball the place they work nicely. Pham isn’t getting graded primarily based on the launch angle and exit velocity; he’s getting graded on the hold time and the space he needed to journey. Statcast is accounting for these additional 17 toes in its grading system, after which it’s knocking off a few of the issue as a result of the ball landed close to the wall. It’s not taking off a pair additional proportion factors as a result of the wind made the ball transfer unexpectedly, and Pham is correct that in an ideal world he would get credit score for that. Nevertheless, that is fairly tame when it comes to wind results. The ball didn’t change path due to a sudden gust, and it didn’t transfer unpredictably attributable to swirling circumstances. It simply had a tailwind that allowed it to get on high of him. Perhaps we’ll get there in the future, however proper now, it’s exhausting to think about any system detailed sufficient that it may put a selected variety of catch likelihood proportion factors on simply how a lot more durable the tailwind made this play, not to mention achieve this precisely sufficient to be worthwhile.

To return to an important level, why wasn’t Pham taking the wind into consideration already? He obtained docked as a result of he didn’t catch the ball, however he didn’t get docked (not less than not by Statcast) for his positioning. In truth, as a result of he began out so removed from the place the ball landed, Statcast gave him extra leeway, lowering the catch likelihood, and thus the hit to his OAA. Different techniques like DRP and DRS think about positioning, they usually could nicely have docked him for taking part in too shallow right here. Or, perhaps the other is true; perhaps they’d’ve acknowledged that he was enjoying shallow with a purpose to maintain the runner at third on a base hit, and would’ve thought-about his positioning to be appropriate although it didn’t work out. If that had been the case, maybe they wouldn’t have held it in opposition to him both. There’s all the time extra context to consider, even when there aren’t any birds in sight.

I also needs to observe that Pham as soon as once more got here near concerning one thing that might have made him look nice. Do you know that our splits instruments mean you can verify how a participant performs primarily based on the wind circumstances? We are able to’t cut up out outfield protection, nevertheless it seems that Pham is definitely an ideal hitter when it’s windy. Over the course of his profession, we have now him credited with making 164 plate appearances when the wind is blowing not less than 18 mph. In these plate appearances, he’s batted .354 with a 197 wRC+. Our database exhibits 513 gamers who have not less than 60 plate appearances in these circumstances. Pham’s 197 wRC+ ranks eighth, simply a few spots behind Aaron Choose and Juan Soto. But once more, Pham is doing the suitable factor by bringing wind into the dialog.

Earlier than I depart you, I wish to point out that, though I’ve made loads of jokes and brought a essential eye to the problems he raised, I feel Pham has the precise proper angle right here. Like each participant, he’s run into some dangerous luck at instances. And, like each participant, he’s additionally confronted some good luck. Right here’s a popup that changed into a double solely as a result of Pham had the nice fortune to hit it to Teoscar Hernández:

Pham doesn’t sitting round desirous about all of the instances he obtained fortunate, and for good cause. He performs the sport on the highest stage, the place failure lurks round each nook. 9 years in the past, proper across the time I began the now-legendary AppleGraphs, I used to be enjoying in a pickup baseball league in Queens and saved this quote from Grégor Blanco. Coincidentally, it too appeared in an article by Eno Sarris:

“This stuff are going to occur. You go up and also you go down. Whenever you go down, it’s worthwhile to notice that it occurs. Don’t let frustration get you. Attempt to simplify the sport. Take some pitches, begin seeing the ball once more. Construct that confidence once more. You should begin seeing it inside your self. ‘I obtained a stroll! That’s good. I hit the ball exhausting.’ Typically in a streak, you hit the ball exhausting proper at somebody, and also you assume, ‘What do I’ve to do?’ As an alternative, say, ‘Yeah, that’s what I need. I hit the ball exhausting.’”

I saved it as a result of, even on this foolish grownup league, I discovered it helpful to trick myself into staying optimistic. Once I hit a bloop single or reached on an error, I’d inform myself, ‘Nice job, you bought on base.’ Once I lined out, I’d inform myself, ‘Nice job, you hit the ball exhausting.’ In different phrases, I discovered a option to take one thing optimistic out of practically each at-bat.

Pham has a tattoo that reads “Consider in Your self” on his left arm, slightly below the spot the place his sleeve ends. I’d be remiss if I didn’t level out that it was an enormous missed alternative for him to not spell it ‘Yourselph,’ however I’m certain the placement was no accident. I’m certain the tattoo is correct there in order that Pham can look right down to remind himself of that at any time when he feels the slightest little bit of doubt creep in. If he desires to create his personal statistics with a purpose to assist him observe the directions on his arm, then we right here at FanGraphs and PhamGraphs are completely happy to do our half.