Cubs Commerce for Edward Cabrera and His Superb Changeup

This offseason has been fairly busy when it comes to precise strikes, however mild on rumors. One of many few exceptions has concerned the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera. The Yankees’ curiosity within the 27-year-old right-hander has been constant all through the winter, however it seems they’ve been overwhelmed to the punch.

Cabrera is certainly on the transfer, however he’s sure for Chicago, not New York, as Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation reported late Wednesday morning. The Cubs get a hard-throwing beginning pitcher, recent off a 3.53 ERA in 137 2/3 innings, with three years of crew management remaining. So as to entice the Marlins to half with Cabrera, Chicago gave up three place participant prospects: Owen Caissie, shortstop Cristian Hernandez, and nook infielder Edgardo De Leon. The Yankees, Jon Heyman says, have been “by no means shut.”

For the second straight winter, the Marlins have dealt a talented-but-inconsistent starter in his arbitration years to an NL contender. And whereas I reserve the correct to vary my thoughts once we learn the way good Starlyn Caba will get, early indications are that the Phillies snookered Miami within the Jesús Luzardo commerce. In his first season in Philadelphia, Luzardo was sixth in beginning pitcher WAR and was terrific in two playoff appearances. Caba continues to be a pair years from reaching the majors in any respect.

So why would Miami president of baseball operations Peter Bendix danger making the identical mistake twice?

Two causes. First, Cabrera has tantalizing expertise, however his monitor document as a giant league starter is nowhere close to as spectacular as Luzardo’s was, even coming off a tough 12 months in 2024. Cabrera has hit the 100-inning mark simply as soon as in his profession, and had struggled fairly badly with walks up till 2025. The return won’t be as sparkly as Marlins followers would’ve hoped, however I feel Bendix traded Cabrera on the proper time.

Second, pitching is the place the Marlins’ depth is. And even with out Cabrera, they’ve loads of it: Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, flashes of decentness from Ryan Weathers, and back-end-of-the-40-man guys like Max Meyer and Ryan Gusto. Plus a pair of terrific high-minors prospects in Thomas White and Robby Snelling, who should contribute within the majors this 12 months. Miami has a greater beginning pitching state of affairs than a pair groups that made the playoffs in 2025.

Conversely, the Marlins’ place participant group is dire. They’ve a number of place gamers with the potential to interrupt out of their mid-to-late 20s, however there’s an honest probability this lineup finally ends up being Kyle Stowers and the Eight Dwarves. What’s the easiest way to get some low-cost pop? Commerce away an affordable pitcher.

The headline prospect on this deal is Owen Caissie. You may keep in mind Caissie because the man who supplied some pop on the backside of the Canadian lineup over the last World Baseball Basic, or as one of many prospects the Padres gave up within the commerce for Yu Darvish. If that doesn’t ring a bell, you most likely don’t keep in mind Caissie in any respect.

He’s, nonetheless, an honest prospect, who at 23 years outdated is coming off a season through which he hit .286/.386/.551 in Triple-A, with 22 homers and 28 doubles in simply 99 video games. Caissie is a nook outfielder, and posted a platoon break up of greater than 250 factors of OPS in Triple-A final 12 months, but when he’s a platoon bat, he’ll be taking part in the sturdy aspect of the platoon.

I wouldn’t hassle to say this ordinarily, however as a result of it’s the Marlins it’s related: Cabrera is barely projected to make $3.7 million in arbitration and is below crew management by way of 2028. However Caissie, a rookie, will make the league minimal and keep below crew management by way of 2031.

The opposite two prospects are lengthy pictures. Right here’s what Eric Longenhagen has to say:

Hernandez is a mistake-prone shortstop defender who struggles with throwing accuracy. He has the vary and athleticism to play the place however, a minimum of proper now at age 22, he’s removed from having the technical polish. His arm stroke could should be modified for him to throw precisely. On offense, Hernandez has at all times had good bat pace, and as he’s gotten older and stronger, he’s developed roughly common uncooked energy, which is nothing to sneeze at for a possible shortstop this age. However whereas his hit device improved sufficient final 12 months to make him a prospect once more, his really feel for contact continues to be clunky sufficient (69% contact price) to place him in a hazard zone. He’s was undoubtedly an arrow up man in 2025, however continues to be a fringy prospect.

Edgardo De Leon is a hard-swinging, medium-framed 18-year-old who posted large top-end exit velocities for his age on the 2025 Advanced, together with a 48% exhausting hit price and 107.6 EV90. The trouble it requires for him to swing that arduous, and among the mechanical concessions he makes to take action, give him huge hit-tool danger, and his contact price was method down at 66%, a fairly scary mark for Rookie Ball. Once more, this can be a fringe prospect.

So for Miami, this commerce hinges on Caissie, who’s each large league-ready and essentially the most proficient prospect within the deal by far. Whichever crew comes out forward in the long run, Caissie is the large winner on this commerce now.

The Cubs’ roster tickles me as a result of it’s each so deep and so flat. Chicago returns solely two four-win gamers from 2025. Each of these gamers — Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong — posted 109 wRC+ marks however had their total worth boosted by outlier fielding performances at premium positions. That depth and lack of upper-tier star energy makes the Cubs extremely resilient within the face of damage, and presents few weak spots (if any) to opponents.

Nevertheless, it additionally makes it powerful to search out at-bats for a participant like Caissie. Distinction that with the Marlins, who’re on monitor to offer vital nook outfield taking part in time to, like, Esteury Ruiz and Christopher Morel. Caissie, who’d be preventing for taking part in time in Chicago, might hit cleanup in Miami.

However the Cubs’ depth additionally extends to their rotation, which is peopled by Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea, with Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and high pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins out there as effectively. And it seems like everybody’s forgotten about Justin Steele, who will return sooner or later this season if his restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure goes based on plan.

That’s loads of high quality arms even with out buying and selling for Cabrera. If I needed to choose a nit, it’s this: Except Cade Horton goes berserk in his sophomore season, the Cubs’ no. 1 starter state of affairs could be one of many weakest amongst Nationwide League contenders. There’s no Cristopher Sánchez or Logan Webb or Yoshinobu Yamamoto right here. (And to be clear, I like Horton, I’m simply not getting forward of myself.)

If Cabrera replicates his 2025 season precisely, he’d most likely make the Cubs’ playoff rotation, however because the no. 4 starter at finest. That also improves a crew that gave heavy postseason innings to Rea final fall, however Cabrera isn’t going straight to the highest of the pile.

At the very least not but. As a result of though this can be a five-year main league veteran who’ll flip 28 in April, Cabrera has abilities you possibly can’t educate.

One large ability, really — arm energy. Amongst pitchers who threw 100 innings in 2025, Cabrera was tenth in common fastball velocity. And the four-seamer is the least helpful and efficient of his 5 pitches.

Cabrera will get that velocity with a swish, straightforward low-three-quarters supply, which supplies his arsenal a whole lot of side-to-side motion however not a lot vertically. 4 of his 5 pitches (every little thing besides the curveball) had average-or-worse vertical motion, and 4 of his 5 pitches (every little thing besides the slider), had a minimum of 1.9 inches of horizontal motion above common.

He received whiff charges within the 40s off each of his breakers — the exhausting two-plane curveball and the extra cutter-action upper-80s slider — however the true occasion piece is his changeup. He’s considered one of simply 4 beginning pitchers — together with Kyle Hendricks, Tarik Skubal, and Merrill Kelly — to throw his changeup greater than another pitch in 2025, however none of these different guys have a changeup fairly like Cabrera’s.

When you don’t wish to learn the following a number of paragraphs, simply watch this and perceive that this can be a changeup that may get whiffs within the zone in opposition to good same-handed hitters.

I really like the announcers’ response right here: the grunt from Tommy Hutton and the inflection on “lovely” from play-by-play man Kyle Sielaff. It’s the way you’d react to an unusually tasty sip of lemonade.

Cabrera’s changeup is, merely put, distinctive. It averaged 94.2 mph final 12 months, and 93.2 mph for his profession. With lower than three miles an hour’s value of separation from the four-seamer, it’s barely a changeup in any respect. Within the Statcast period, solely two offspeed pitches have the next common velocity than Cabrera’s changeup: the splinkers thrown by Jhoan Duran and Paul Skenes.

Besides Cabrera’s changeup is extraordinarily not a splitter. It doesn’t dip; it simply steams in and veers proper, like a mail truck happening a hill with out its brakes or proper rear tire. And the grip couldn’t be much less splittery.

Cabrera owns the 4 quickest changeups of the Statcast period, and 27 of the highest 29. In his profession, he’s thrown 272 changeups at 95.0 mph or extra; all different pitchers put collectively have mixed for 64. We name Cabrera’s changeup a changeup not as a result of it resembles the opposite pitches that go by that identify, however due to a failure in taxonomy.

And this isn’t a circus act; opponents hit .203 and slugged .266 off Cabrera’s change in 2025, with only one house run. Add within the two bat-repelling breaking pitches and he was within the 94th percentile for breaking ball run worth and the 88th percentile for offspeed run worth, based on Baseball Savant. The command points that plagued him early in his profession additionally began to clear up final 12 months; he walked 8.3% p.c of opponents, which isn’t exceptional by itself. However that’s down from a earlier profession common of 13.3% — no small feat, then.

That appears like ace stuff to me. I think about the Cubs really feel the identical, which is why they needed him. So how did Cabrera solely put up 2.0 WAR in 26 begins, with a 3.53 ERA that was broadly consistent with his FIP and xERA?

The reply is that Cabrera’s fastball, for all its prodigious velocity, sucks. Each of them, in actual fact. The four-seamer blends in with the sinker, which has fairly predictable motion and runs into the changeup.

To be trustworthy, I don’t know why Cabrera throws a fastball in any respect. Neither do Nationwide League hitters, presumably, although they wouldn’t need him to cease. Opponents posted wOBAs and xwOBAs over .400 in opposition to each his four-seamer and sinker in 2025. His sinker generated a .373 opponent common and .609 opponent SLG, each of which have been among the many 10 highest marks allowed off any pitch within the majors final 12 months.

Presumably, the Cubs have a plan to cease the bleeding with Cabrera’s fastball. With even a median heater, he might be that top-of-rotation arm they want. However making that occur is less complicated mentioned than accomplished. The Marlins, who for all their different faults are often fairly good at growing pitchers, haven’t been capable of crack it.

What Cabrera actually wants is a four-seamer with some legit rise to offer it some separation from the sinker (if he retains throwing it, which I wouldn’t) and changeup. However that’s exhausting to get from his arm slot. If he (throws a greenback within the “he ought to study a cutter” swear jar) learns a cutter, does that show redundant with, or detract from the slider? I don’t know, man, there’s a cause I’m not a pitching coach.

That sort of potential in a longtime large league starter, irrespective of how fleeting, is uncommon on the commerce market and costly as hell in free company. If the Cubs managed to snag that elusive ace for Caissie and two low-minors lottery tickets, it’ll be a coup. If Cabrera stays a median pitcher with one actually cool pitch, he’s nonetheless helpful, and Caissie was blocked anyway. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

The Marlins shore up a place of deadly weak point by dealing from a place of depth. They usually’re promoting excessive on Cabrera, even when I wanted that meant a much bigger return. On daily basis attracts us nearer to the Pareto frontier.