2026 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The staff order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent staff up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

The Orioles hogged a lot of the AL East Disappointment area in 2025, however the Rays have been equally uninspiring. Moderately than bouncing again from a down 2024, their first dropping season in a fairly lengthy stretch, they dropped down a number of extra wins in 2025, and by no means felt like they have been related, both as dominating contender or incompetent doormat. Whereas the Rays are traditionally nice in relation to squeezing as a lot out of each penny, it may be troublesome for them to show issues round shortly as a result of they received’t bridge gaps with large spending. So now they enter 2026 with their common m.o. of making an attempt to build up sufficient incremental benefits to sneakily win 90 video games.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have a very deep offense, so if the staff is profitable, it’ll probably require large years from Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero. ZiPS continues to be pleased with Díaz as one of many higher DHs in baseball, although the truth that he’ll flip 35 in August can’t fully be ignored. Neither is ZiPS projecting 45 house runs from Caminero, however he nonetheless must be simply this lineup’s largest supply of pure energy. The pc does anticipate some offensive regression from Jonathan Aranda, since having the ability to run a .409 BABIP — like he did final yr — isn’t a ability that main leaguers simply occur to own. That mentioned, he’s nonetheless projected to supply sufficient to play first base, somewhat than getting caught in tweener hell — that terrible place reserved for gamers who each aren’t ok offensively to be first basemen and who aren’t robust sufficient defensively to play a extra necessary infield spot.

ZiPS just isn’t electronically enamored with both latest signee Cedric Mullins or Josh Lowe within the outfield, and it sees the Nick Fortes-led catching tandem as much less forte and extra pianissimo, however the Rays have a look at least satisfactory at these positions. Carson Williams will get a stable projection from ZiPS, higher than both Steamer or THEBAT, however it’s a lot much less enthusiastic about him, each offensively and defensively, after his tough 2025 season. Left discipline initiatives to be an actual drawback spot, and although Brandon Lowe might be overrated at this level, ZiPS doesn’t actually like several of his doable replacements at second base on our depth chart. ZiPS does like Jadher Areinamo’s protection much more than the consensus, so he’s a minimum of fascinating. Prospect Xavier Isaac doesn’t spike a giant projection, however his offensive upside is actual, and there’s hope that his elbow is ok, and that there are not any lasting repercussions from the “life-saving” mind surgical procedure he had over the summer time.

Pitchers

Even after buying and selling right-hander Shane Baz to the Orioles, the Rays rotation appears to be in a minimum of respectable form. If Shane McClanahan, who hasn’t pitched within the majors since 2023, is absolutely wholesome, he rounds out a fairly good prime trio with Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot. In the meantime, offseason acquisition Steven Matz may very well be both an honest fourth starter or robust in a reduction position, and Tropicana Area is a reasonably secure house to restrict his occasional homericiousness. Each Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour mission as league common or only a skosh worse, so there are a minimum of six believable rotation candidates right here, and Yoendrys Gómez isn’t that far again. What ZiPS doesn’t see is loads of emergency depth right here; it normally thinks the Rays have various fringy pitching prospects who might fill in admirably, however that’s not the case this time round.

The bullpen is the same story. ZiPS isn’t tremendous enthusiastic about Edwin Uceta, however it stays an enormous fan of Griffin Jax, picked up final summer time when the league pillaged the Twins. Jax was a short-term play, however ZiPS doesn’t see Taj Bradley, whom Tampa Bay despatched to Minnesota in return, as being far more fascinating than both Boyle or Seymour. Garrett Cleavinger will get a stable projection, and ZiPS is pleased with Bryan Baker, Mason Englert, and Kevin Kelly. ZiPS is much less tickled by the Rays’ choices to cowl lower-leverage innings, guys like Steven Wilson or Hunter Bigge, however I’m positive the staff will discover some random unknown reliever to place up a 3.30 ERA.

The Rays aren’t dangerous, however it is a powerful division, and there are sufficient holes and questions that ZiPS is placing them in water-treading territory once more, someplace between a number of video games under .500 and some video games above it. That’s nonetheless a staff that may sneak right into a wild card, however it’ll want some luck to take action.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate staff projections might differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 on account of harm, and gamers who have been launched in 2025. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to kind a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected staff WAR. You will need to do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a staff will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.