On Saturday, the eve of his posting window’s closure, 29-year-old Japanese third baseman Kazuma Okamoto agreed to a four-year, $60 million contract with the reigning American League champion Toronto Blue Jays. Okamoto, who made his NPB debut as a youngster, is a profession .277/.361/.521 hitter with Tokyo’s Yomiuri Giants. He had a power-hitting breakout in 2018, his age-22 marketing campaign, starting a six-year streak by which he hit 30 or extra annual house runs, together with a 2023 season by which he cracked 41 of them. He ranks second in all of NPB with 214 homers since 2019, our first 12 months of NPB information monitoring right here at FanGraphs. Throughout his 2025 platform 12 months, Okamoto posted an unbelievable .327/.416/.598 line and career-best 11% strikeout price, albeit in solely 77 video games as a result of he sprained his left elbow in an on-field collision that brought on him to overlook roughly half the season.
Harmful from prime to backside, lineup depth was the bedrock of a Toronto crew that got here inside inches of successful a World Sequence, and Okamoto’s balanced contact/energy hitting type matches in with the Blue Jays’ baton-passing assault. Pre-existing defensive versatility on their roster — particularly, incumbent second baseman Andrés Giménez’s means to play shortstop — gave them the pliability to pursue gamers of just about any place as a way of changing free agent shortstop Bo Bichette.
Okamoto’s deal is barely backloaded; he’s getting a $5 million signing bonus and has a $7 million wage in 2026, then makes $16 million per season in every of the ultimate three years. The Blue Jays additionally paid a posting charge of $10.875 million to Yomiuri, making their whole outlay $70.875 million. That quantity is correct in step with the knowledgeable and crowd sourcing estimates of 3-4 years and $15-18 million AAV, as revealed in Ben Clemens’ Prime 50 Free Brokers checklist, on which Okamoto ranked twenty first. My analysis of Okamoto was just a little weightier; I believe he’s going to hit (extra on that in a second) and produce within the vary of two.0-2.5 WAR per 12 months, participant high quality befitting a $20-25 million AAV.
Regardless of the construction of the contract, it’s the $15 million common annual worth of the deal that informs Toronto’s payroll calculation because it pertains to the luxurious tax. Per RosterResource, the Blue Jays 2026 projected luxurious tax payroll is now $308 million, second highest in all of baseball and in extra of the closing luxurious tax threshold. This has been an all-in 12-month interval for the Blue Jays, throughout which they’ve dished out a number of long-term, generally nine-figure, contracts headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million extension in April. The 2026 season will probably be Toronto’s second consecutive 12 months in extra of the luxurious tax threshold, however with a number of high-dollar contracts expiring after the season, the crew’s 2027 commitments will dip approach all the way down to an estimated $218 million, low sufficient to reset its luxurious tax penalty proportion if something remotely near the present CBA’s construction is retained in 2027 and past.
Okamoto made stark contact enhancements over the past couple of years, producing the 2 lowest strikeout charges of his profession in 2024 (15.9%) and 2025 (11.3%), whereas additionally bettering his splits in opposition to tougher fastballs; he’s had an 89% contact price in opposition to all fastballs and an 87% contact price in opposition to heaters 94 mph and above throughout the final three seasons. That 94-plus mph fastball cut up is just derived from a 350-pitch pattern throughout that three-year span, and there’s inherent volatility in projecting how Japanese hitters will regulate to MLB pitching as a result of they’re underexposed to premium velocity, however in Okamoto’s case a minimum of, the info now we have is constructive and corroborates the visible analysis of his expertise. Early in his profession, he was crushing loads of hanging breaking balls, however of late he’s been extra typically on time to tug fastballs with energy, and his spray chart features a ton of contact straight down the left subject line, which is a participant attribute the Blue Jays appear to focus on.
As a result of Okamoto is so geared to tug, he does make some concessions in opposition to well-located secondary pitches away from him, although none of his splits in opposition to any specific pitch kind are particularly scary. He tracks pitches effectively, strikes the barrel across the zone (particularly the higher half), and is a reasonably steady bat-to-ball “prospect” for an NPB participant. He lacks the light-tower energy of a famous person nook infielder, however he has sufficient to be harmful, and I believe he’ll hit sufficient to profile as a median common, particularly at third base.
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Okamoto has spent nearly all of his profession taking part in third base, with some first base and left subject blended in. The best way the dominoes fall for the Blue Jays’ defensive alignment appears fairly clear; with Guerrero entrenched at first base, Okamoto goes to spend most of his time at third. Okamoto can present you nimble decrease physique stability and has really feel for bouncing off the dust and spinning into correct throws, however he lacks vary and struggles making performs to his glove facet. There are numerous comparable main league third basemen (Max Muncy involves thoughts) who’re flawed, however playable. Okamoto’s presence will most likely power Addison Barger to spend extra time within the outfield, and Ernie Clement (additionally a flawed defender, with an odd throwing stroke and sketchy accuracy) to principally slide to second base. With injured/growing old George Springer and Anthony Santander at present occupying projected DH and outfield spots in Toronto’s beginning lineup, it’s not loopy to assume Okamoto may also want to face in left subject now and again simply to present the older guys a breather. There are going to be a lot of other ways to get his bat into the lineup by taking part in matchups on the nook positions the way in which supervisor John Schneider did efficiently all through 2025 with Barger, Clement, and Davis Schneider, amongst others. General, I count on Okamoto to carry out like a prime 12-15 participant at his place, hit one thing like .250 with 20 or so annual bombs whereas taking part in under common protection, albeit at a pair completely different spots that enables Toronto to subject its finest total lineup on any given day.