The Baltimore Orioles continued filling out their rotation final weekend, signing right-hander Zach Eflin to a one-year contract price $10 million with a mutual possibility for the 2027 season. Traded to the Orioles from the Rays in 2024, Eflin struggled with accidents final yr, throwing solely 71 1/3 over 14 begins whereas placing up a 5.93 ERA and -0.3 WAR.
A primary-round choose by the Padres out of a Florida highschool in 2012, Eflin lastly established himself as a strong mid-rotation starter with the Phillies on the finish of the last decade after being part of trades for Matt Kemp and Jimmy Rollins. COVID and recurring patella points in his proper knee plagued him in 2021, leading to season-ending surgical procedure, and he missed one other three months in 2022 with extra issues with the identical knee. Regardless of the setbacks, the Rays noticed sufficient to signal him to a three-year, $40 million deal getting into the 2023 season. Eflin skilled a minor again harm and tendinitis in his different knee, however that solely value him a handful of innings, and the end result was his finest and most sturdy marketing campaign. He set profession highs in begins (31), innings (177 2/3 innings), ERA (3.50), FIP (3.01), and WAR (4.9). Whereas his numbers sagged a bit in 2024, Eflin was nonetheless a high quality pitcher whose title bandied in commerce rumors earlier than the deadline.
Finally, the Orioles acquired him that yr for 3 lesser prospects: pitcher Jackson Baumeister and outfielders Matthew Etzel and Mac Horvath. I used to be a giant fan of that commerce, because it addressed Baltimore’s rotation wants within the second and offered insurance coverage in case Corbin Burnes departed in free company. ZiPS agreed and thought the Orioles improved greater than some other workforce at a reasonably quiet deadline. Eflin did repay down the stretch and pitched decently in his Wild Card Collection begin towards the Royals, however the O’s scored solely a single run in two video games, dooming their playoff run.
When Baltimore didn’t re-sign Burnes or add one other frontline starter, Eflin entered 2025 because the workforce’s de facto ace, and issues began off nicely with an Opening Day win over the Crimson Sox and three high quality begins. However he suffered a lat pressure within the third of these begins, towards the Diamondbacks, and missed a month of the season. By the tip of June, Eflin returned to the IL due to nagging again ache, which he mentioned he’d skilled in every of the earlier a number of seasons. He got here again 24 days later and made two begins earlier than he required a season-ending lumbar microdiscectomy process.
The surgical procedure is predicted to don’t have any main repercussions — I had the identical surgical procedure a pair years in the past and no less than that a part of my aching again now not shouts expletives at me commonly — and the hope is that the surgical procedure occurred early sufficient final yr for him to have a standard spring coaching and begin the season within the rotation. Naturally, there’s threat concerned, or he else would’ve signed for greater than the one-year, $10 million contract he acquired. Even so, by all accounts, he was comfy with the Orioles, and so they actually want all the assistance the can get of their rotation after final yr’s disastrous efficiency. Eflin’s possibility is a giant one, for $25 million with a $2 million buyout, and as much as $5 million extra relying on what number of begins he makes in 2026.
ZiPS Projection – Zach Eflin
| Yr | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | 8 | 4.24 | 22 | 22 | 119.0 | 123 | 56 | 19 | 22 | 91 | 98 | 1.5 |
Factoring within the harm threat, ZiPS pegs Eflin as a roughly league-average starter in 2026 with upside and suggests giving him a $10.5 million deal. Getting 2023 Eflin would clearly be the preferable consequence, however even this projected line could be a serious boon to the rotation after final yr’s displaying.
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Orioles ZiPS haven’t gone dwell but, however I’ve higher entry to the projections than most, for causes I hope you may think about, so I ran down the O’s rotation primarily based on our present Depth Charts innings.
ZiPS/FG Depth Chart – O’s Rotation
Would this be an incredible rotation? Completely not, however it could be miles forward of what the Baltimore obtained from its starters final yr. These projections could be sufficient for the Orioles to be actual contenders on condition that their offense needs to be a giant plus. I’d in all probability be extra destructive with the inning totals throughout the board — 4 of the highest 5 pitchers (besides Kremer) have important harm histories — however that also would go away them with a middle-tier rotation. Now, this hopefully wouldn’t preclude the workforce from going after one of many prime starters accessible, reminiscent of Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez, however that is significantly better work from the entrance workplace than we noticed final winter. Rogers, Eflin, Baz, and Bradish are usually not veterans attempting to cobble collectively one final respectable marketing campaign; moderately, all of them have some recognizable upside that, if tapped into, may very well be worthy of an All-Star choice.
Every of the final 4 World Collection featured no less than one workforce making a comeback from a extremely disappointing season. The Blue Jays completed final in 2024, the Yankees have been a .500 workforce in 2023, the Rangers and Diamondbacks have been mediocre-at-best in 2022, and the Phillies barely have been within the black in 2021. The O’s have extra work to do in the event that they’re going to be the workforce to take that place within the script for 2026, however signing Eflin brings the birds a bit nearer to having the ability to fill that position.