Yesterday, the New York Submit’s Jon Heyman reported that Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai has agreed to a three-year, $54 million pact with the Houston Astros (ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the size). The deal consists of choose outs after every of the primary two years, primarily a “show it” contract that provides Imai the chance to re-enter free company ought to he rapidly exhibit that he’s higher than the open market appeared to suppose he was throughout this posting interval. Talking of the posting system, be aware that the Astros may also pay Imai’s Japanese membership, the Seibu Lions, simply shy of $10 million below the present MLB/NPB posting settlement’s components (20% of the contract’s first $25 million, 17.5% of the following $25 million, and 15% of something over $50 million). The deal additionally options $9 million in escalator clauses that kick in as Imai approaches and crosses the 100-inning threshold throughout his first two seasons, bringing Houston’s whole potential expenditure to roughly $73 million.
This deal is shorter and fewer profitable than was usually anticipated by pundits (together with yours actually) when it turned identified that Imai can be posted; Ben Clemens forecast a five-year, $100 million deal, whereas our median crowdsource estimate was for 4 years and $64 million earlier than the posting charge. Imai is 27-years-old, he’s coming off of his finest professional season after a number of consecutive years of improved strike-throwing, and he checks a number of of the visible scouting and information analytics bins you need from a mid-rotation starter. What might be the explanation(s) for the discrepancy between our collective expectations and Imai’s precise payday, and the place does he match into Houston’s rotation?
Let’s revisit the background on Imai. He was the Seibu Lions’ 2016 first spherical pick of a highschool in Utsunomiya Metropolis, a metro roughly the dimensions of Tucson that’s about 80 miles north of Tokyo. He spent a 12 months within the minors after which hopped proper into the Lions rotation as a 20-year-old in 2018. All through his early and mid-20s, Imai was a walk-prone (however efficient) starter. He handled a number of illnesses in 2022 (together with a proper adductor damage), then took a step ahead as a strike-thrower and an innings-eater in every of the following three seasons, turning into certainly one of NPB’s finest arms. Throughout the 2022-25 seasons, Imai halved his stroll fee (from the 14% space to 7%), expanded his repertoire, and improved his fastball velocity whilst his innings rely grew to north of 160 frames. He’s had 4 consecutive seasons with an ERA below 2.50 (even whereas he was wild), and in 2025, he posted a 1.92 ERA and a pair of.01 FIP.
And Imai may not be executed bettering. He has a free, whippy type of athleticism that helps him generate large, misleading arm velocity (his arm stroke really tends to be somewhat late), and whereas he’s clearly a gifted lower-body athlete, he doesn’t all the time seem like he’s getting down the mound so far as he’s most likely able to. He could also be a tweak away from having higher stuff than his already stable five-pitch combine. A nasty mid-80s slider with sharp two-planed motion carried out like a plus pitch in 2025 and is the very best of these choices. Imai throws each a splitter and a changeup (the splitter is the newer of the 2, and its utilization backed up late in 2025) with much less constant execution than his fastball and slider. On uncommon events, he’ll dial down the velo to form his breaker to play extra like a curveball.
A few of these pitches (particularly the changeup) are discernible early of their flight, which is one other factor that may enhance with a change to Imai’s place on the rubber or to his stride route, each of that are frequent year-to-year alterations for large league pitchers to make.
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You may quibble with Imai’s relative lack of measurement (he’s listed at 5-foot-11) or elements of his supply, however he definitely appears to be like like a giant league starter from a uncooked stuff and athleticism standpoint, he has demonstrated MLB starter-quality stamina and strike-throwing for the final a number of seasons, and he might conceivably take one other step ahead if even one facet of his supply will be polished in his late 20s. I had him graded as a superb crew’s fourth starter at the beginning of the offseason. From a pure worth matching standpoint, that assumed Imai would command one thing within the $20-$25 million AAV vary, most likely (I believed) on a longer-term deal due to his age. Whereas the mixed worth of your complete potential contract and posting charge ($73 million over three years) is in that vary, the deal’s comparatively brief size maybe indicators that groups have been extra apprehensive about Imai’s matriculation, whereas the choose out clauses level to a niche between Imai and Co.’s self-assessment and that of his suitors, with Imai and Boras Corp clearly considering there’s an opportunity he out-pitches the deal straight away and might make extra on an extended contract subsequent offseason.
What could be inflicting that hole? For one, every time we’re speaking a few Japanese pitcher who depends closely on his breaking ball to generate whiffs, there’s an added aspect of threat and variability as a result of the MLB and NPB baseballs are barely completely different. Delicate modifications to the seam peak or the tackiness of the baseball may impression the standard of a pitcher’s stuff, or no less than drive them to make an adjustment, and it’s usually assumed this is applicable most to breaking pitches. Imai’s slider is his most harmful providing (a virtually elite 47% miss fee with a 41% chase fee), and for those who suppose that there’s threat of that pitch taking part in nearer to common with an MLB ball, I might see being concerned that he gained’t strike out a batter per inning over right here like he was in Japan.
Maybe most significantly, we will query whether or not Imai’s command has actually improved over the previous few years, or whether or not he’s susceptible to being walk-prone on our shores. The chase fee in NPB throughout your complete league is 32%, in comparison with 28% in MLB. Hitters over there are merely extra prone to bail out pitchers who aren’t working within the strike zone, and if you elevate your fastball with uncommon velocity (for NPB, anyway) the best way Imai does, it’s doable to overperform as a strike-thrower relative to your true expertise. Imai’s arm stroke is commonly somewhat late relative to when his entrance foot lands, which is continuously a trait of pitchers whose fastballs sail on them. That stated, I’m personally optimistic about Imai’s athleticism and fluidity, and suppose that is one thing that may be tweaked if it seems to be an issue.
Lastly, there’s the query of the cadence of an MLB pitcher’s workload (as soon as each 5 days) versus what Japanese pitchers expertise (as soon as per week), although this is applicable to each pitcher coming over and never simply Imai. Whether or not or not the Astros plan to have an even bigger rotation to accommodate this and permit Imai to proceed pitching as soon as per week, or how he’ll carry out if requested to work extra continuously, we simply gained’t know till the season begins.
The Astros have now added two outstanding new faces to their steady of starters in Imai and commerce acquisition Mike Burrows, three for those who rely KBO kickback arm Ryan Weiss, who James Fegan and I had evaluated extra as a swingman. With Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier because the anchors, Imai presently must carry out like a no. 3/4 starter for Houston’s rotation to really feel like a contender’s group. That’s on the excessive finish of what I believe is possible for him, and if Imai finally ends up pitching that nicely (like he’s a 3-4 WAR starter fairly than the 2-2.5 WAR man I believe he’s), then he’ll solely be a one-year answer in Houston, as performing to that degree will give him incentive to choose out and re-enter the market a 12 months from now.