Someday after boom-or-bust Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami was formally launched as a brand new member of the White Sox on a two-year, $34 million pact, FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that the Pirates have inked fellow left-handed first baseman Ryan O’Hearn to a two-year, $29 million deal.
This framing gadget will finally lose its White Sox trappings, however they’re initially linked simply because the South Siders had been linked to O’Hearn early within the offseason, earlier than they pivoted from a dependable and confirmed large leaguer to an attention-grabbing worldwide signing. Murakami has a deeply unstable profile with important bust potential, however a famed dwelling run hitter and two-time MVP of NPB selecting a relative MLB backwater is intriguing not just for beleaguered White Sox ticket gross sales staff, but additionally for shops like this one which observe the league at giant. How the skills of a legendary Japanese slugger with apparently bottom-of-the-scale contact potential translate to MLB is fascinating, whereas pondering whether or not a 32-year-old hit-over-power first baseman like O’Hearn can preserve a later-career breakout going is extra the same old fare. Even for the most important place participant free agent signing in Pirates franchise historical past, O’Hearn is newsworthy largely when it comes to how properly he would possibly fill a short-term want for a task participant.
The place these two strikes line up once more is that, inside the chilly strains of a spreadsheet, these could possibly be pretty related high quality first base bats who obtained related offers, regardless of their 15-spot disparity (twelfth vs. twenty seventh) within the FanGraphs High 50 free brokers rankings. Steamer boiled down Murakami’s absurd NPB exploits right into a 118 wRC+, 2.3 WAR projection, and sees O’Hearn following the previous three years of above-average hitting with a 112 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR, the place the massive WAR discrepancy will be at the least partially defined by enjoying time. From a extra risk-averse perspective, O’Hearn has bettered his 2026 projections in every of his final three seasons, producing a 121 wRC+ and 6.1 WAR general from 2023-25, and is a extra dependable guess than the man with Joey Gallo contact charges who has by no means performed in MLB earlier than. The brand new Pittsburgh first baseman can also be simply much less marketable, and the disparity in fanfare is a useful reminder that that is an leisure product.
For the place the White Sox will attempt to court docket Japanese baseball followers into watching extra Chase Meidroth than they ever anticipated, the thrill for O’Hearn is extra that it represents a sustained run of the Pittsburgh Pirates – sure, the Bob Nutting-owned Pittsburgh Pirates – doing issues. Some issues, at the least.
O’Hearn’s reported settlement comes on the heels of Pittsburgh’s bringing in power-hitting second baseman Brandon Lowe and outfielder Jake Mangum in a three-team commerce with the Rays and Astros, buying Jhostynxon Garcia, a forty five+ FV prospect who’s main league prepared, in a swap with the Purple Sox, and making an unsuccessful bid for Kyle Schwarber in free company that, presumably, at the least one or two individuals concerned thought would possibly truly work. On the very least, it confirmed Pittsburgh’s need so as to add a confirmed bat for its personal sake. And as an alternative of Schwarber, O’Hearn wound up being the primary multi-year free agent signing by the Pirates since Iván Nova’s three-year deal in 2016. With apologies to Lowe, who’s coming off a 31-homer season and his second All-Star look, the Pirates nonetheless haven’t landed an enormous fish, however they’ve spent the final month swapping out gamers who can’t hit with two who can (Lowe and O’Hearn), one who would possibly (Garcia), and one who would possibly perform a little little bit of hitting and another helpful issues (Mangum).
That’s a pleasant begin, however in all probability nonetheless an inadequate one contemplating the context. Simply this previous 12 months, the Pirates offense scored the fewest runs in all of baseball. The Rockies had a decrease staff wRC+, however you’d be stunned how little credibility claiming one thing is “higher than the 2025 Rockies” buys from trendy fanbases. Usually such a paucity of scoring could be sufficient of an emergency in its personal proper to benefit a significant offseason response, however scoring the fewest runs within the sport whereas Paul Skenes is double-dipping with a Cy Younger Award and an ERA title in his first full season within the majors means each season from right here on out is a struggle to keep away from losing a generational expertise till the day he leaves. And if Skenes does depart with no slew of playoff begins for the Pirates on his ledger, to say nothing of Bubba Chandler or the returning-from-injury Jared Jones, a Pittsburgh participant improvement operation that has systemically failed to supply viable bats will shoulder numerous the blame. And so whereas O’Hearn isn’t tasked with reworking a franchise’s offensive popularity all by himself – that’s prime prospect infielder Konnor Griffin’s job – this isn’t the low stakes project for an over-30 hitter on a rebuilding staff it’d seem like, and there are some challenges for him to keep up his current kind.
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For a primary baseman who went from trying to be on his approach out of the league at age-28 to creating an All-Star staff at 31, O’Hearn’s operation on the plate doesn’t look that drastically totally different. He hasn’t activated a dormant elite software a lot as he’s simply change into proficient at numerous little parts. He straightened up his posture on the plate throughout his time in Baltimore and put in a mechanism for beginning his hand load earlier and in a extra relaxed vogue, considerably enhancing his inner-half plate protection. The alterations have enabled O’Hearn to quietly change into one of many higher fastball hitters within the league, as his .395 xwOBA towards four-seamers this 12 months was superior to all of his new Pittsburgh teammates save for Bryan Reynolds.
Regardless of that proclivity, O’Hearn’s breakout hasn’t been rooted in tapping into the 60-grade uncooked energy of his prospect days. His Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity of 103.1 mph this 12 months was a tick beneath the main league common, and he launched solely 17 dwelling runs over his 544 plate appearances (each profession highs). As an alternative, he largely makes his bones by spraying numerous good — however not nice — contact all around the yard. The getting old curves post-age 32 are usually not pleasant to hitters of just about any stripe, but when a deadly flaw emerges from O’Hearn’s bedrock of solid-but-unspectacular contact charges and swing selections, it may be one which the unfinished nature of the Pirates place participant crop by accident exposes.
Nearly strictly a platoon hitter up till 2025, O’Hearn hit .278/.358/.474 towards southpaws in 109 plate appearances, however that sturdy efficiency is probably going some mixture of idiot’s gold and a .358 BABIP. The inflow of spin he sees towards same-sided pitching spikes his chase charges into the 30s, and O’Hearn’s historic contact efficiency towards breaking balls suggests a much more unstable path to viable manufacturing. He struck out 24.7% of the time towards lefties this 12 months, and as established, he doesn’t have standout energy to counter his elevated whiffs. Fairly than a platoon companion, the present Pirates roster affords one thing nearer to the opposite half of a 1B/DH pairing with fellow lefty Spencer Horwitz, whose ending kick (.314/.419/.581 over his final 35 video games) redeemed his first 12 months in Pittsburgh, however he additionally has his personal defensive limitations. Whereas this writer can solely supply a novice understanding of Pirates lore and tradition, it usually appears that regardless of present ranges of uncertainty, the notion of franchise legend and famous right-handed swinger Andrew McCutchen’s returning to soak up some DH alternatives at age 39 can’t be dismissed till perhaps a pair innings into the season opener.
Outfield work is an avenue to getting O’Hearn plate appearances if such a crunch emerges, as he’s performed 20+ video games in a nook in every of the previous three seasons. However given his velocity and arm limitations, it’s extra of a security valve for a late-August getaway day sport the place a number of regulars are hurting than a path to hidden worth. Fortunately for everybody, O’Hearn is coming off the strongest season of first base glove work of his profession (+4 DRS, +6 OAA), which theoretically ought to make clear the place he could be finest used. However environment friendly utilization of function gamers is among the luxuries of getting a whole roster, and the truth that the Pirates outfield had a collective 84 wRC+ this 12 months doesn’t present each assurance that they’ll push back the temptation to stay their newly acquired established bat on the market. Simply drawing from the names already talked about right here: Lowe has performed 110+ video games solely as soon as over the previous 4 seasons, García and Mangum swing at numerous issues, if not fairly every part, and Horwitz is coming off an terrible first half, so the prospect of the Pirates’ over-relying on O’Hearn earlier than Griffin arrives and fixes the offense ceaselessly lies simply past the horizon.
However stick O’Hearn at DH or on the defensive spot the place he’s plus and line him up largely towards right-handed pitchers — or just fastball-reliant hurlers of both handedness as a result of his tweaks have made him succesful towards lefty sinkers on his fingers — and there’s a path to a 2-WAR season right here. That’s a chunk you possibly can spherical out a robust roster with, but it surely won’t be the paradigm-shifting assertion of seriousness that one would possibly anticipate given O’Hearn’s all of a sudden vaunted place in Pirates free agent historical past.