I received sick final week. So did my spouse. We canceled our plans. We spent the weekend horizontal. We watched TV. On Sunday morning, I wakened and located my spouse on the sofa watching A League of Their Personal. I did what anybody does once they catch a glimpse of the best baseball film of all time on tv. I sat down and watched the remainder of it.
I’m nonetheless form of sick. My spouse continues to be absolutely sick. A League of Their Personal continues to be on my thoughts. Particularly, I’ve been fascinated about the scouting report that Rockford Peaches catcher Dottie Hinson (Geena Davis) delivered to pitcher Ellen Sue Gotlander (Freddie Simpson) with two outs and the tying run on first within the backside of the ninth in Sport 7 of the World Collection in Racine. I had helpful ideas, and we’ll get to these in a second. First, although, we’re going to wade by some ineffective ideas. I encourage you to humor me, as a result of I’m about to critique the baseball technique in an ideal film. I advised you I’m sick.
There’s nothing improper with making a mound go to in an enormous second, giving the pitcher a break and reminding them of the scouting report. However the batter was Hinson’s sister Equipment Keller (Lori Petty), who spent practically all the season with the Peaches, then confronted them all through the Collection, together with 3 times alone in Sport 7. There’s no means Ellen Sue wanted a refresher on that individual scouting report. Then, there’s the scouting report itself. “Excessive fastballs,” Dottie mentioned. “Can’t hit ‘em, can’t lay off ‘em.” It was proper on the cash, however they didn’t should comply with it on each single pitch, did they? As soon as they’d jumped forward 0-2, did it by no means happen to Dottie or Ellen Sue to waste a breaking ball within the dust to be able to reset Equipment’s eye stage? I don’t care who’s on the plate; you possibly can’t throw the identical pitch to the identical spot 3 times in a row and count on to get away with it.
OK, critique over. The thought we’re going to pursue at this time is a query: Who has a scouting report that the majority resembles Equipment’s? That’s proper — it’s time for the primary ever Equipment Keller Excessive Fastballs Can’t Hit ‘Em Can’t Lay Off ‘Em Award. Practically each batter has this downside at the very least to some extent. Any pitcher with a very good four-seamer makes use of it to earn swinging strikes above the plate. That’s what that pitch is for. Nonetheless, some gamers are extra prone than others. I pulled numbers for the 2025 season. I targeted on laborious pitches – four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters – within the higher third of the strike zone and above. For these of you aware of Statcast’s Assault Zones, which means any zone that ends in a 1, 2, or 3. I used a pattern of 308 gamers who noticed at the very least 1,000 of these pitches this yr.
Trying on the prime of the zone and above it led me towards numerous height-related purple herrings. Aaron Choose noticed 1,381 pitches that had been outdoors the strike zone in 2025, however as a result of he’s 6’7”, fewer than 10% of them had been really above the zone, the bottom charge in baseball. Human mountains like Oneil Cruz, Jordan Walker, and James Wooden had been additionally on the backside of the listing. Their zone is so tall that it’s nearly laborious to find the ball above it. The large Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Wallner swung at simply 5 and 14 pitches above the zone, respectively, and so they missed all of them. As you’d count on, the opposite aspect of the listing is populated by smaller gamers like Davis Schneider, Jose Altuve, Matt McLain, Brayan Rocchio, and Sal Frelick. The highest of their zones begins an entire lot decrease.
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The participant with the very best swing charge on excessive fastballs, inside and out of doors the zone, was Josh Naylor. Naylor ran an absurd 66% swing charge on excessive fastballs. He really can’t lay off ‘em. However right here’s the factor: He can actually hit ‘em! Naylor whiffed simply 15% of the time on these pitches, which put him within the 89th percentile. Not solely did he make tons of contact, however he recorded a .417 wOBA when these pitches ended a plate look. In response to Statcast’s run values, he was price 3.6 runs per 100 pitches, the Tenth-best mark within the league. Naylor is the anti-Equipment Keller.
It could be a shock that the man who swings on the most excessive fastballs seems to be nice in opposition to them, however the relationship between swing charge and whiff charge on excessive fastballs is very weak. In 2025, among the many 308 gamers who noticed at the very least 1,000 whole pitches, the correlation coefficient is -0.07. The graph beneath exhibits what that appears like. Naylor is the pink dot within the backside proper, and Luis García Jr. of the Nationals is correct subsequent to him. I’ve additionally highlighted the precise Equipment winner on this graph and the subsequent one, however what I really need you to notice is the general form of the scatter plot.
Yep, it appears to be like like an enormous outdated blob. To the bare eye at the very least, there’s hardly any correlation there. Some gamers swing at these pitches lots, and a few gamers make a variety of contact on them. However that’s about all you possibly can say. Nonetheless, for those who throw out excessive fastballs contained in the zone and look solely at pitches which are too excessive, then the correlation jumps all the best way to -.28. The scatter plot continues to be a blob, however you possibly can at the very least see outlines of the overall pattern.
Which may not be the route you anticipated that correlation to go. The detrimental correlation signifies that gamers who swing extra at these pitches make extra contact in opposition to them. That’s as a result of, typically talking, gamers who chase lots can’t afford to overlook lots. If you happen to chase on a regular basis and whiff whenever you achieve this, you’re going to strike out always, no pitcher will ever throw you a strike, and also you’ll find yourself in another occupation. For that cause, the highest proper is devoid of dots. And since no one is able to shedding these pitches totally or working an ideal contact charge, the underside left is empty too. Contact hitters can put the barrel on something, in order that they’re freer to swing at something. And since they’ll hit something, extra pitches look hittable to them. The graph has to go from the highest left to backside proper.
Alright, I believe I’ve put you off lengthy sufficient. Gabriel Arias of the Guardians, former teammate of Naylor’s, is our Equipment Keller Award winner. Arias is the inexperienced dot within the prime proper of each graphs, the place “Can’t Hit ‘Em” and “Can’t Lay Off ‘Em” lastly meet. In 2025, Arias swung at slightly below 60% of the excessive fastballs he noticed, which landed him at twenty first on our listing of 308 gamers. He whiffed on slightly below 54% of these pitches, which ranked fourth on the listing. Put these two numbers collectively, and 32% of the excessive fastballs he noticed become whiffs. No different participant was above 29%. Arias additionally topped the listing for those who focus solely on pitches above the strike zone, turning them into whiffs at a 29% charge, as soon as once more a pair proportion factors above the participant in second place. Please be aware that the 76-pitch supercut beneath is only a pattern. It solely exhibits four-seamers and sinkers, and it solely exhibits pitches within the shadow, chase, and waste zones. I left 28 whiffs on the desk, each to avoid wasting myself some work and since I didn’t need Baseball Savant to suppose I used to be a bot and block my IP tackle.
None of that is essentially a shock. “Arias appears to be like like a stud at 5 o’clock when he’s taking batting observe and infield,” wrote Eric Longenhagen in 2020, “however his in-game swing selections have been an issue… The Padres threw each developmental trick within the e-book at him through the offseason, together with digital actuality coaching, to attempt to get him to raised establish balls from strikes and chase much less typically.” Eric went on to say that within the unlikely occasion that Arias realized learn how to swing on the pitches he may hit and lay off those he couldn’t, he’d be a star. Ben Clemens wrote about that star potential throughout this previous spring coaching, however Arias went on to publish a career-high 34.4% strikeout charge through the common season. It was the very best of any participant with at the very least 400 plate appearances. Arias is 25 now, and that future the place he figures it out and turns right into a fearsome energy hitter with a terrific glove at shortstop appears to be like fainter than ever, all as a result of he can neither hit, nor lay off excessive fastballs. Nonetheless, you most likely shouldn’t throw him three in a row.