2026 ZiPS Projections: Boston Pink Sox

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The workforce order is chosen by lot, and the following workforce up is the Boston Pink Sox.

Batters

After three years fumbling across the .500 mark and being firmly out of the AL East dialogue, the Pink Sox returned to the playoffs for the primary time since 2021, and have been nonetheless combating for the AL East title as late as early September. The season ended with the unsatisfactory conclusion of dropping the Wild Card Collection to the Yankees in three video games. The Pink Sox are a workforce I’ve lot of conflicting feelings about. I nonetheless don’t assume the Mookie Betts state of affairs was dealt with all that effectively, and I believe they’ve missed some upside alternatives by typically being very quiet at commerce deadlines. I additionally marvel if the entire Alex Bregman–Rafael Devers state of affairs earlier this yr may have been prevented with higher communication. However that is additionally a franchise that does large issues to enhance the workforce; buying and selling for Garrett Crochet was an enormous play, signing Bregman final yr was daring, and buying each Sonny Grey and Willson Contreras from the Cardinals in separate swaps this offseason have been shrewd strikes to focus on particular workforce issues. I assume one of the simplest ways to explain the franchise now’s “unsentimental.”

Nevertheless they bought right here, ZiPS initiatives the lineup to be an extremely strong, deep group, with the weakest spots — second base, third base, and catcher — nonetheless projecting to be common or higher. This isn’t simply an artifact of aggressive enjoying time projections, both, as ZiPS sees numerous worth within the the steady of backups and position gamers. That Boston was capable of ship prospects to the White Sox enough to land Crochet final offseason whereas nonetheless graduating a number of prospects to the majors displays how quietly wonderful the group’s developmental pipeline has been.

One can see why there’s a lot speak about a potential Jarren Duran commerce that will or could not contain Ketel Marte. Duran will get loads of enjoying time in Boston, however he’s in all probability much more invaluable to a workforce like Arizona than the Pink Sox, who’re with none actual outfield holes now that Roman Anthony has efficiently reached the majors. Kristian Campbell’s projection has taken an enormous hit, because of a awful main league debut and a surprisingly underwhelming efficiency at Triple-A after his demotion; he nonetheless initiatives to have a strong future, although it will not be in Boston. I’m not predicting Trevor Story to be as wholesome as our Depth Charts count on, but it surely was good to see him get a completely wholesome season in for the primary time shortly.

Including Contreras was a very good deal. If Duran is extra invaluable to a different workforce than Boston, then Boston is arguably one of many best possible locations for Contreras. No, he isn’t a star, however the Pink Sox are prime contenders, and which means they want certainty right here moderately than somebody who may probably convey larger upside. The Sox cobbled collectively replacements at first base after Triston Casas ruptured his patella, however that’s a tricky place to cobble collectively offense for on the fly, and Pink Sox first basemen solely mixed for a .244/.305/.386, -0.7 WAR line, simply the worst manufacturing on the place of any playoff workforce this yr. Casas’ damage in 2025 and a fractured rib in 2024 value him numerous enjoying time, and even when there’s an expectation that he can flip issues round, Boston is in a tricky place to really should rely on that. I nonetheless assume Casas can have success within the majors, however it could merely be with a franchise that may take a riskier method.

I’m really mildly aggravated there isn’t extra to complain about, since I’m a person who likes snark, and since I’m from Baltimore, any Pink Sox success could hinder the Orioles.

Pitchers

In the event you requested me after the World Collection what the Pink Sox most wanted within the pitching division, I’d have mentioned a real no. 2 starter between Crochet on the prime and their deep steady of mid-rotation starters. They addressed their greatest offensive weak spot with a commerce, and so they did the identical factor right here, buying Grey from the Cardinals. And as with the Crochet commerce, they did it with out giving up anybody they desperately didn’t wish to lose; Brandon Clarke could possibly be an actual plus for the Cardinals sometime, however there are numerous issues that must occur for him to get there.

Crochet has the second-best WAR projection for a pitcher in ZiPS, behind solely Tarik Skubal, so there’s no ZiPS causes to query Crochet’s bonafides as a beast of an ace. No different members of the rotation moreover Crochet and Grey get superb projections, however there are a lot of completely helpful projections, ok to make the Pink Sox and most of their followers joyful. Brayan Bello is a reliable quantity three, and ZiPS locations Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kutter Crawford, Kyle Harrison, Patrick Sandoval, and Johan Oviedo in roughly the identical tier of average-ish efficiency. Principally, pulling any two out of the hat provides the Sox one of many higher 4/5 conditions within the majors. And you’ll argue that principally all of them have an upside state of affairs that might not less than put them at Grey-level efficiency, although I’m rather less bullish on Oviedo. A bunch of arms with query and upside is the Dodgers’ method, and I believe it’ll work effectively right here.

Aroldis Chapman has some draw back danger because of age, however he was terrific in 2025, when he reduce out the walks that had lengthy plagued his profile as his sinker more and more turned a bigger a part of his arsenal. It’s uncommon to see pitchers change what makes them profitable as they method 40, and out of doors of these age considerations, there’s no actual motive to fret about him. The times of experimenting with Garrett Whitlock as a starter could be over, however he efficiently got here again from damage as a dynamite setup man. Likewise, Jordan Hicks is finest used as a reliever. Of the projected bullpen, ZiPS is basically uneasy about solely Zack Kelly. It additionally thinks that Ryan Watson, a Rule 5 reliever picked up in a commerce with the A’s, was a sneaky-good transfer.

All informed, ZiPS thinks the Pink Sox must eclipse 90 wins and be critically within the battle for the AL East title. ZiPS additionally thinks that Boston has much less draw back than its competitors, and an terrible lot must go fallacious for this workforce to return to the place it was from 2022-24.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate workforce projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever potential. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 because of damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2025. So sure, in case you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Metallic band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected workforce WAR. It is very important keep in mind that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a workforce will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You may, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This final is, nevertheless, not an precise requirement.