Cardinals, Pink Sox Hyperlink up Once more in Willson Contreras Commerce

‘Twas the week earlier than Christmas, and all by means of Fenway, each fan was insistent: “Get a primary baseman, right now.” Or, effectively, in all probability not – why would there be followers at Fenway when there aren’t any video games, anyway? Why Christmas week particularly? Why did they assemble their sentence awkwardly to swimsuit a rhyme scheme? However neglect about how exhausting it’s to open an article – or at the very least how exhausting I’ve made it appear with this one. There’s a commerce afoot! The Pink Sox have acquired first baseman Willson Contreras from the Cardinals in alternate for right-handed starter Hunter Dobbins and righty pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita, as Jeff Passan first reported.

In a free agent market awash in slugging first base/DH sorts, Contreras flew below the radar this offseason. Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso had been the highest names on the place, and each secured the offers befitting that standing. The Pink Sox had been clearly excited about including some offense, notably within the infield, and had been linked to each sluggers earlier than they signed elsewhere. However there are extra methods to enhance your staff than on the open market, and a pivot to Contreras quickly adopted.

Should you’re an fan of an AL staff who principally checks in on the NL through the playoff race, you may be a little bit confused at this level. Aren’t all of the Brothers Contreras catchers? Didn’t Willson catch the final pitch of that curse-breaking Cubs World Collection win again in 2016? However whereas the Cardinals light into the background of the nationwide dialog and entered right into a rebuilding section, Contreras shifted to first base (after some trials and tribulations behind the plate), placing the instruments of ignorance away and acquitting himself pretty effectively at his new defensive house. This yr was the primary season of his profession the place he didn’t seem behind the plate; as a substitute, he performed 120 video games at first base and 15 extra at DH.

Contreras has all the time had the bat to play first base. His profession 122 wRC+ would match proper in among the many prime full-time first basemen of the previous 5 years. In 2025, he posted a 124 mark whereas additionally racking up essentially the most plate appearances of his profession at age 33. Switching from catcher does wonders on your sturdiness, because it seems.

In that expanded enjoying time, Contreras principally did what he’s all the time performed: He tried to hit the snot out of the ball each time he got here to the plate. He’s one of many hardest swingers within the majors, and he places that ferocity to good use by lifting and pulling the ball. That strategy comes with its justifiable share of strikeouts, however Contreras has sneaky good bat management for a man rotating this ferociously. He struck out 25.2% of the time in 2025, a lot lower than you’d anticipate in the event you simply watch him swing. He has a strong sense of the strike zone, too, and whereas he makes a below-average quantity of contact, it’s not that far beneath common. Most main leaguers able to scalding the ball this incessantly come up empty greater than he does.

If there’s one concern about Contreras’ offensive slot in Boston, it’s what number of line drives he hits. His hardest contact clusters within the line drive/low fly ball space, optimized for distance, whereas Fenway rewards loft, notably for right-handed hitters. Baseball Savant calculates anticipated house runs by park, remodeling preliminary batted ball trajectories to every park’s specific circumstances and dimensions to approximate what a hitter’s manufacturing may appear to be if he performed 100% of his video games there. For his profession, Contreras’ batted ball combine would produce only a few house runs in Fenway, because it seems, with the Monster turning many into smashed singles or doubles. In reality, solely cavernous Kauffman Stadium could be a harder house run park for him, per this calculation.

That sounds worse than it’s, although, as a result of turning some homers into doubles isn’t the top of the world. It’s additionally value contemplating that gamers are the merchandise of their environments; put a 600-foot wall 17 ft from third base (all calculations approximate), and lots of righty batters will naturally begin hitting with extra loft. ZiPS thinks that the larger risk to his offensive potential is that previous implacable enemy, time:

I requested Dan Szymborski for a three-year projection to match Contreras’ contract. After a slight remodeling of his deal within the commerce to the Pink Sox, he’s due $18 million in ‘26, $17 million in ‘27, after which both a $7.5 million buyout or a membership possibility for $20 million in ‘28. The Cardinals are kicking in $8 million of that, bringing Boston’s dedication right down to both two years and $34.5 million or three years and $47 million. The choice yr could be very a lot up within the air; the median ZiPS projection would in all probability lead the Sox to say no the choice, but it surely wouldn’t take a lot of an outperformance to alter the mathematics. The pc would supply Contreras $36 million over two years or $44 million over three, principally a match for his real-life contract.

Personally, I worth Contreras extra extremely than that. It’s more durable than you’d assume to search out good offense at first base. Jorge Polanco simply bought two years and $40 million to principally play first, and whereas he’s extra versatile than Contreras, I believe he’s a worse hitter. Dependable energy hitters have been beating a WAR-based estimate of open-market worth for years at this level. Contreras may be heading into his age-34 season, and he won’t be one of many best hitters in baseball, however loads of groups would like to plug in 20 or so homers and a 120ish wRC+ at first.

The Pink Sox appear to agree with me, as a result of they surrendered a number of pitching prospects to amass him. Hunter Dobbins, the headliner, is the sort of depth starter that the majority groups would search out to spice up the underside of the rotation. He throws a median fastball about 40% of the time, and the way in which that his broad mixture of secondaries develops can have quite a bit to say about how his profession goes.

Dobbins’ most incessantly used secondary is a tough slider that sits someplace in the course of the gyro/sweeper spectrum. He may sweep it at a decrease velocity towards righties. Persevering with down the speed spectrum, he throws an enormous two-plane curveball that may be his greatest strikeout pitch. Towards lefties, he mixes in a low-90s splitter that’s nonetheless a piece in progress. It’s often categorised as a splinker, which is quite a bit much less fearsome at 90 mph coming from Dobbins than it’s at 98 from Paul Skenes. There’s room to dream on the pitch growing into one thing extra devastating, however Dobbins struggled to overlook bats within the majors this yr, as lefties simply weren’t fooled by his offspeed stuff, and he didn’t have a lot of a backup plan.

Dobbins is rehabbing from a season-ending torn ACL that he suffered in July. It was a freak harm, incurred throughout a scramble to cowl first base, however sadly it’s the second time he’s torn the identical ACL. If every part goes effectively in his restoration, he’ll be prepared by spring, however there’s actually some threat there. That threat fits the rebuilding Cardinals simply advantageous, although; they’re hoping to get worthwhile contributions from Dobbins in future years after they’re contending, and their eyes are squarely set previous 2026 at this level. Maybe the repeated ACL accidents and a previous Tommy John surgical procedure level to poor sturdiness in his future, however who is aware of? Accidents are notoriously robust to foretell, and Dobbins seems like a pleasant depth piece when wholesome, with room to enhance from there if he can determine a greater possibility towards lefties. He may find yourself as a multi-inning reliever, and he seems like a reasonably good possibility there, too; he has the sort of fastball that might particularly profit from a couple of additional ticks on the radar gun.

Fajardo is a young person who signed with the White Sox in 2024 earlier than getting his sox dyed purple in a minor commerce final offseason. I bought some notes from Brendan Gawlowski to enrich my scouting of the stat line, and people notes are interspersed with my commentary beneath:

Fajardo sits within the low-to-mid 90s with a fastball that doesn’t have a ton of form; he additionally has robust really feel for spin, at present greatest exemplified by his slider. He has a pleasant curveball and an inconsistent changeup. Brendan sees much less probability of accelerating velocity than you’d anticipate from somebody Fajardo’s age due to his already-mature body, however there’s nonetheless house for his curveball and changeup to become wonderful pitches.

He made 13 begins in Low-A this yr and appeared wonderful there, with a near-30% strikeout charge and a pleasant clear zero house runs allowed. It’s a low sufficient degree, and his stuff and placement are ok that these numbers received’t essentially translate upwards. Brendan famous that Fajardo’s easy supply and early-opening hips give opposing hitters an amazing take a look at the ball, which limits his deception. He additionally reveals an inconsistent means to command the ball glove aspect, an necessary long-term ability for a spin-reliant starter. Put all of it collectively, and he seems like a future backend starter, with a pleasant fallback as a reliever given how a lot elevated velocity would flatter his pitch combine.

A sixth-round draft decide in 2024 out of Kennesaw State, Aita throws a dizzying array of pitches, with a big-spinning slider the spotlight. He added some offspeed choices in 2025 as he made 19 begins between Low-A and Excessive-A. He didn’t miss a ton of bats at both cease, and he pitched many of the yr at age 22 as well, so it’s not like he was tremendous younger for the extent or something. Brendan highlighted Aita’s strike-throwing means, which offset his low velocity and helped him towards lefties whilst he struggled to search out an offspeed pitch with which he’s comfy.

Aita will doubtless want some new pitches to maintain advancing, and Brendan notably highlighted the necessity for a brand new offspeed possibility. The Sox clearly thought the identical. His present arsenal simply doesn’t look ok to propel him up the minor league ladder; he was so closely slider-reliant that the pitch performed down regardless of good measurables. You may solely throw so most of the similar breaking ball, even to A-ball hitters, earlier than they begin to see it coming. Should you’re searching for an irresponsible upside comparability, think about Aita rebuilding his total sport round his means to spin. The rpms on his slider are huge, and he might lean extra into a tough cutter as a main choice to get extra out of that given his below-average fastball. That’s simpler stated than performed, although; if each pitcher with a great slider and so-so fastball might flip into Corbin Burnes in a single day, the league would look very completely different. Extra realistically, Aita is a possible up-and-down starter or lengthy reliever. There’s loads of volatility round that projection, after all, however rely him as an attention-grabbing lottery ticket, not a probable distinction maker.

The Cardinals had the posh of not being in a rush to commerce Contreras, and I believe it paid off for them right here. Dobbins can completely be part of the subsequent good St. Louis staff, and the group has had sufficient issue drafting and growing starters lately that including outdoors assist makes a ton of sense to me. Even when Fajardo and Aita don’t pan out – that’s the median final result for prospects that removed from the majors – 100 innings a yr of competent pitching from Dobbins sounds mighty good given how a lot the Cardinals have struggled to provide that, even with significant spending in free company, throughout their most up-to-date window of competition.

To be clear, although, I additionally like this commerce for the Pink Sox. They sorely wanted a dependable first baseman, and dependable infielders basically. Triston Casas, the inheritor obvious to first base for years at this level, has struggled with accidents and strikeouts for lengthy sufficient now that they will’t rely on a wholesome and efficient yr from him. The outfield is overstocked with nice gamers who don’t actually match on the dust. There’s in all probability no room at DH provided that outfield glut. Enhancing the offense runs by means of the infield, and doubtless by means of the corners. There are nonetheless loads of third basemen accessible — amongst them Alex Bregman, who opted out of the contract he signed with the Pink Sox again in February — and I believe they’ll doubtless signal one of many higher ones, however first base was trying like a weak level that couldn’t be addressed by means of free company.

Does it harm to surrender a depth starter and a few attention-grabbing prospects to make this work? Certain. However even Dobbins wasn’t more likely to be an enormous contributor to the Pink Sox in 2026 given how a lot pitching depth they’ve – or perhaps it’s extra correct to say that they received’t undergo a lot from dropping him due to their nice provide of Dobbins-esque arms. Fajardo is a high-upside prospect, however he’s extremely removed from the majors. Not one of the three pitchers alters the trajectory of Boston a lot in any respect. Contreras, alternatively, provides the staff a dependable power-hitting common at a charge that you simply principally can’t get these guys for anymore.

By buying and selling for Contreras and Sonny Grey as a substitute of signing equal choices in free company, the Pink Sox have stored their monetary powder dry. For the time being, we estimate their projected 2026 payroll as $16 million decrease than it was in 2025. That can change in the event that they re-sign Bregman or get one other marquee third baseman, however that’s much more doable even throughout the constraints of the Fenway Sports activities Group’s funds now that they’ve added two stars for lower than $40 million in mixed 2026 wage.

Name it a win-win, then; Chaim Bloom and his former staff have partnered on one other swap that advantages everybody concerned. Possibly this wasn’t the current most Bostonians hoped to search out below the primary base tree this Christmas – Schwarbinos and Polar Bear Petes are highly regarded this yr – but it surely’s an amazing reward nonetheless, and the Cardinals bought to fill their stockings with a depth starter and minor league pitchers in return.