Baltimore Bolsters Rotation With Baz, Whereas Tampa Bay Takes a Extra Is Extra Method

Orioles followers have had “Frontline Starter” on their Christmas listing because the departure of Corbin Burnes, and although Friday’s acquisition of Shane Baz is maybe the present equal of asking for a Ferrari and getting an Acura, it provides a confirmed aspect to the center of an Orioles rotation that also seems like will probably be anchored by Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers.

To accumulate the 26-year-old Baz, who’s coming off a 2-WAR season, the Orioles needed to half with a prospect potpourri made up of a pair of 2025 draftees (Coastal Carolina catcher Caden Bodine and highschool outfielder Slater de Brun), a Aggressive Steadiness Spherical A decide in subsequent yr’s draft, upper-level beginning pitcher prospect Michael Forret, and speedy 22-year-old outfielder Austin Overn. It’s an unlimited, high-volume return for one participant and helps the roots of the Chris Archer commerce tree anchor deeper into the sport’s soil. I’ll discuss extra about every prospect, the comp decide, and the way in which this commerce impacts each golf equipment’ farm programs later within the publish. However let’s begin with probably the most instantly consequential piece of the deal: Shane Baz.

Baz has been well-known since his junior yr of highschool, when he emerged as one of many higher pitching prospects within the 2017 draft. He was chosen by Pittsburgh in the midst of the primary spherical and traded because the Participant to be Named within the Archer deal just a little over a yr later. The pandemic and protracted accidents (there have been some near-misses as properly) slowed Baz’s ascent by means of the minors and prevented him from working greater than 81 innings in any single season till actually 2025. The Rays doggedly deployed him as a starter regardless of his accidents and early-career command woes, they usually had been rewarded with one thing of a breakout this yr, as Baz ate 166.1 innings throughout 31 begins. He posted a 4.87 ERA, however hurricane injury to Tropicana Discipline meant that he pitched his house video games in a minor league park with the hitter-friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium; his xERA, which controls for protection, high quality of contact, and the hitting atmosphere, was 3.86.

Essentially the most related developments for Baz in 2025 had been that the Rays reintroduced a 3rd breaking pitch to his repertoire, and that he proved he can maintain upper-90s velocity throughout a starter’s load of innings. His fastball averaged 97 mph, which was in prime 10 amongst certified starters. Baz has at all times had a deep mixture of breaking balls, however at factors his repertoire has been modified or pared down in an effort to assist him throw strikes. In 2025, he was throwing extra express cutters than in 2024, a pitch extra apt to complete within the prime of the strike zone and play properly with Baz’s greatest bat-misser, his elevated fastball. You’ll be able to see these cutters (in black) have extra vertical motion than the gyro-style sliders he was working with final yr:

Although none of Baz’s secondary pitches moreover his cutter generated plus miss or chase in 2025, if you isolate his splits towards lefties and righties you may see he has the instruments to generate plus outcomes towards batters of both handedness. He’s very unpredictable with two strikes towards lefties, who see an excellent mixture of elevated fastballs, changeups, and Baz’s deep-diving knuckle curveball. Righties see a steadier eating regimen of fastballs and curves. Early-count cutters assist to arrange mainly all of those choices. If there’s one space Baz can nonetheless enhance, it’s command refinement, as he bullies the strike zone however doesn’t find with the precision wanted for his stuff to play like a dominant combine.

That is the stuff of an excellent workforce’s third or fourth starter, with Baz’s on-field outcomes thus far sliding him extra towards the no. 4 designation. Pitching with this combine for a second massive league season, and for an org that has a optimistic monitor document of pitching growth — the Rays do too, in fact, however so do the Marlins and the but Orioles coaxed extra out of Trevor Rogers — may reveal barely higher outcomes. I feel we are able to fairly say that the Orioles now have three influence or playoff-caliber starters in Bradish, Rogers, and Baz, after which a deep group of backend varieties behind them. Pitching prospects like Trey Gibson, Luis De León, and Nestor German may be part of that influence contingent all through 2026, however Baltimore most likely nonetheless wants so as to add extra arms with a view to fight the potential for accidents scaling down that group, particularly contemplating the well being monitor information of Bradish and Baz.

Baz is getting into his first season of arbitration and RosterResource has his projected wage determine at $3.1 million. Even when he merely repeats his 2025 output, that’s an enormous surplus worth boon for the Orioles, who’ll be paying $3 million for a pitcher who would make roughly $20-25 million on the open market. That, plus the three seasons of workforce management remaining earlier than Baz hits free company after the 2028 marketing campaign, helps clarify why the commerce return right here was so large.

After all, Baltimore is well-equipped to fulfill Tampa Bay’s ask. The Orioles have an absurdly deep farm system when it comes to the uncooked variety of prospects. Their go-wide method on the commerce deadline and within the draft left them with a whopping 67 minor leaguers who I thought of prospects on the finish of the season. The Rays typically take the same method, and have a tendency to seek out methods to snowball their prospects. They traded Archer for 3 prospects, after which every of these guys was ultimately moved for a number of prospects themselves. This commerce is a primary instance of that. What’s extra, all however one of many gamers the Rays acquired have solely lately entered professional ball. This retains them far sufficient away from the 40-man roster to keep away from a near-term roster crunch, and likewise offers the Rays’ participant dev group a number of time to assist mildew their profile.

The prospect I had ranked highest on the time of commerce is Bodine, a catcher out of Coastal Carolina who I had 18th on my 2025 Draft Board. He was picked thirtieth total, signed for $3.1 million, and performed 11 professional video games after the draft. He’s a well-rounded switch-hitting catcher with plus bat-to-ball potential from each side of the plate. Bodine posted a 93% zone contact price as a sophomore and a 96% mark as a junior. He generates all-fields spray with low-ball energy as a lefty and is extra oppo-gap oriented as a righty, together with his measurable energy just a little south of the massive league common total, however not by a lot. A late tip in his arms (which is extra pronounced from the left facet) may make him late on professional velo, however in any other case I contemplate him a really secure prospect as a hitter.

He’s, nevertheless, going to be a little bit of a challenge on protection. Bodine didn’t catch a ton of pro-quality stuff at Coastal, and receiving and ball-blocking the stuff of his Collegiate Crew USA teammates was a problem for him in 2024. He grew to become a greater framer in 2025 as, per Synergy, 57% of his obtained borderline pitches had been referred to as strikes, however ball-blocking was nonetheless an actual downside for him. Bodine’s throwing is above common, and he makes correct throws from funky platforms when he has to. There’s work to do on protection, however I feel Bodine has a shot to be a main catcher in three years or so.

The prospect within the commerce who will yield an enormous league return the soonest, nevertheless, is the right-handed Forret (pronounced with the emphasis on the second syllable, as in Leonard Fournette), a strike-throwing developmental success who was drafted out of a Florida junior school and skilled at Tread Athletics. Forret was ranked as the highest 40-FV prospect within the Orioles system throughout our final cycle, and upon re-evaluation will doubtless be within the 45-FV tier.

Forret had a 1.58 ERA throughout 74 innings in 2025 and completed his season at Double-A. He’s getting into his 40-man platform yr and has an opportunity to make his massive league debut with the Rays towards the tip of the season. He has terrific really feel for location, which helps his in any other case pretty pedestrian stuff play up. He can manipulate his fastball and breaking ball shapes to swimsuit his wants relying on the handedness of the hitter, and he discovered a kick change at Tread that rapidly grew to become his greatest bat-missing pitch. Forret can function east/west with sinkers, sliders, and cambios when he desires, or elevate his fastball with upwards of 18 inches of vertical break on his greatest four-seamers. He’s of comparatively slender construct, however his supply is easy and he has sensational really feel for location, with every of his pitches producing strikes at higher than a 65% clip. He tends to function within the 91-95 mph vary and his breaking balls lack big energy, so we’re most likely speaking about an environment friendly innings-eater moderately than a real star, however Forret goes to be a priceless a part of a rotation pretty quickly.

For my part, the next-best little bit of the commerce for the Rays is the comp decide. Compensation surrounding free brokers who rejected qualifying gives will doubtless alter the draft order, however this decide will probably be someplace within the mid-to-late 30s. This tends to be the place the 45-FV and 40+-FV tiers intersect. Groups typically goal thrilling, higher-upside highschool gamers with both these comp picks, or with the bonus flexibility they’ve due to the pool area added by the decide, which on this case will most likely be a shade below $3 million.

In a humorous little bit of coincidence, de Brun was drafted by the Orioles with the comp decide they acquired by buying and selling reliever Bryan Baker to the Rays earlier than final yr’s draft; he obtained a $4 million bonus to eschew a dedication to Vandebrilt. de Brun is a muscular, top-heavy 5-foot-10, with huge, sq. shoulders and spectacular energy for his dimension. He’s constructed quite a bit like Jasson Domínguez on the similar stage, with Diamondbacks outfielder Slade Caldwell additionally a good comp. de Brun’s ability set is within the younger Brandon Nimmo mildew — a affected person speedster with superior bat management — simply with out something close to the identical type of physicality. de Brun had a .616 OBP on the showcase circuit due to his plate self-discipline, contact potential, and velocity. He can actually bend into his decrease half to regulate his barrel depth, however he has common bat velocity and isn’t particularly explosive or projectable. His velocity ought to facilitate a middle discipline match although his really feel for protection is simply okay; an absence of arm energy would shift him to left discipline if his reads stay inconsistent. de Brun was a 40+-FV prospect earlier than the draft and might want to present particular on-base abilities in his 2026 professional debut if he’s going to remain there, as a result of I are usually skeptical of hitters who’re already maxed out at this age.

Lastly, Overn was a irritating prospect at USC whose efficiency dipped in his draft yr. A swing change in 2025 made it seemed like he had a shot to interrupt out. He spent the early a part of the season struggling earlier than he turned a nook after the All-Star break, slashing .281/.366/.479 and incomes a late promotion to Double-A. Overn can actually run, and he’s a menace to break pitches in his wheelhouse, however he struggled to time fastballs final yr and he’s nonetheless a fairly small athlete. He doubtless has a future as an additional outfielder, however the truth that he appeared to regulate to his new swing in the midst of final season at the least offers the Rays some hope that he’ll proceed to enhance as a contact hitter and outpace that projection.

The Rays don’t have a ton of high-upside, High 100 sort prospects proper now, however they’ll once more have one of many deeper farm programs in all of baseball as we full our cycle of lists. They traded Baz on the apex of his worth, after his lone season demonstrating starter-quality stamina, for what seems like one good piece per yr of Baz’s remaining workforce management. If they’ll backfill Baz’s spot within the rotation internally, this can really feel like an excellent deal for them 12 months from now. At this second, although, they’ve helped an division rival get higher.