The Winter Conferences traditionally mark the start of the signing interval for marquee free brokers, and this week has seen a number of stars agreeing to massive contracts. However there have been additionally loads of little offers among the many titans, and one among them particularly fascinates me. That deal: The Braves signed Mike Yastrzemski to a two-year, $23 million contract, with a membership choice for a 3rd yr, as Jon Heyman first reported.
There’s lots to unpack with this one, however we would as nicely begin with Yastrzemski. The 35-year-old outfielder is nothing if not constant. In a 2025 cut up between the Giants and the Royals after a deadline deal, he logged his seventh straight season with a WAR whole between 1.5 and a pair of.5. It was his fifth straight yr with a wRC+ between 99 and 111, and the third of these 5 years the place it was precisely 106. He performed his standard strong outfield protection, and the Royals even felt assured sufficient in him to often use him in middle discipline. If he’s your greatest outfielder, your outfield in all probability isn’t all that good. If he’s your third-best man, it’s in all probability nice.
However whereas Yastrzemski’s season appeared just like the others when it comes to his general line, it was a story of two halves. In San Francisco, he began slowly and by no means actually obtained going. He posted the worst contact high quality marks of his profession whereas struggling to a below-average line. Then he went to Kansas Metropolis and went on an enormous heater, for lack of a greater solution to describe it. Every part obtained higher unexpectedly. Yastrzemski’s barrel charge elevated from 7.1% to 10.9% on the identical time that his swinging strike charge declined from 8.0% to five.4%. That’s a neat trick when you can pull it off, and because of this, he hit extra homers in KC than in SF in half the plate appearances, all whereas reducing his strikeout charge to an otherworldly 11.8% and in addition strolling 13.4% of the time.
Have you learnt how laborious it’s to slug .500 whereas enjoying your private home video games at Kauffman Stadium? To paraphrase Ron Washington, it’s extremely laborious. Bobby Witt Jr. slugged .501 final yr, for instance. Yastrzemski obtained to his energy thanks to an enormous fly ball charge, and he paid the worth in BABIP because of this, but it surely was nonetheless an unbelievable two months. At occasions, he felt just like the second-best hitter on the crew, and the Royals made a run at playoff rivalry for some time, although they finally fell quick.
That model of Yastrzemski would command a reasonably penny in free company, even at age 35. However that’s not likely how baseball works. Gamers get that scorching on a regular basis. It’s a recreation of streaks. He has reached these lofty highs no less than briefly in each season he has performed in. The explanation that his Royals manufacturing seems to be so good is that he obtained traded to them roughly the place the purple X is on this chart:
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That’s to not say that I’m not inspired. I’m much more enthusiastic about Yastrzemski’s trajectory now than I used to be in late July, that’s for certain. However I’m a little bit skeptical that he’ll be capable of maintain this manner going indefinitely; he posted the bottom strikeout charge of his profession and highest full-season stroll charge (his 2020 stroll charge was barely increased), and nonetheless solely hit at mainly his profession degree. I don’t suppose you possibly can guess on him repeating that in 2026. Steamer agrees, pegging Yastrzemski for a 102 wRC+, which sounds about proper to me.
That brings us to the Braves’ facet of the equation. Actually, a 102 wRC+ left fielder would go well with the Braves simply superb. They performed numerous Eli White (84 wRC+) and Alex Verdugo (66 wRC+) on the market final yr. Jurickson Profar manned the place after coming back from suspension, however he’s extra of a DH at this level in his profession, a spot that opened up with the departure of Marcell Ozuna. Unquestionably, Yastrzemski is a giant step up over what Atlanta had happening there.
This improve is of specific significance to the Braves as they try and rebound from a dismal 2025 season. Atlanta gave numerous plate appearances to dangerous hitters final yr. They did so as a result of they had been quick on depth; a few of their veterans performed poorly, however a much bigger situation might need been relying on 1,110 plate appearances from White, Verdugo, Nick Allen, and Nacho Alvarez Jr. within the first place. A few of that was out of their management – they didn’t know Profar would get suspended for half the yr – however they will’t afford one other wasted season like that, not with a roster constructed to win now. Yastrzemski is nice sufficient to be a starter on a playoff crew, and the Braves don’t have sufficient starters for his or her playoff-hopeful membership. It is a significant enchancment.
Right here’s the factor although: This specific kind of significant enchancment has not been notably costly in free company of late. I didn’t put Yastrzemski on my High 50 Free Brokers listing as a result of I adopted current tendencies in crew habits in making these predictions. Strong veteran hitters have gotten squeezed in recent times. Yastrzemski might be a 1-2 WAR participant subsequent yr; Steamer mixed with FanGraphs enjoying time allocations has him at 1.1 WAR, however I believe they’re too harsh on his protection, so I’d bump him up a hair. That resume, at age 35, has not been a great way to get a giant paycheck of late.
Final winter, 14 hitters who had been projected for between 1.0 and a pair of.0 WAR in 2025 signed contracts. Ten of these 14 had been 31 or older. That group obtained a mean AAV of round $9.5 million, and even that is likely to be a bit excessive for a Yastrzemski comp; that group contains Joc Pederson, who was coming off a 3-WAR season and has an offense-first profile that groups traditionally prioritize in free company, in addition to Michael Conforto, whose one yr, $17 million deal had the primary impact of proving to those who the Dodgers can’t repair everybody. Pederson was one among solely two gamers on this cohort to get a multi-year cope with an eight-figure AAV. The opposite? Profar.
In different phrases, guys with Yastrzemski’s basic profile often get smaller offers than this one. Cedric Mullins, an no less than usually related outfield choice, simply obtained $7.5 million for one yr, although to be truthful his season trajectory was the inverse of Yastrzemski’s, with a crash on the finish. Loads of the gamers in Yastrzemski’s tier are going to get shorter offers with decrease AAV’s than this.
Why signal Yaz early and for lots, then? To ensure you get him. It’s not just like the current decline of the center class in free company is a state secret. All it’s a must to do is take a look at the contracts. Yastrzemski is aware of this as a lot as I do. If you’re dreading a one-year prove-it deal after seven straight years of proving it, getting $23 million is a can’t-miss alternative. For those who consider free company as an eBay public sale, that is the “Purchase It Now” value; I think that just about any crew may have supplied Yastrzemski this a lot and gotten the deal completed.
If all of the Braves cared about was getting some veteran outfielder, any veteran outfielder, I believe they might get it completed for much less. Miguel Andujar, Adolis García, and even 29-year-old Willi Castro are roughly related guys. Andujar and García even appear very Braves-y to me; they’re attention-grabbing reclamation initiatives. Max Kepler is round and wouldn’t value a lot. Clearly, then the Braves needed this veteran outfielder and thought they couldn’t threat ready to see if he would signal with them for much less.
There’s an apparent motive for that, no less than in my thoughts. Aside from his transient Royals stint, Yastrzemski has spent his complete massive league profession in San Francisco. He’s extraordinarily comfy enjoying the tough outfield there. Buster Posey, the crew’s POBO, was Yastrzemski’s teammate on a 107-win crew a mere 4 years in the past. The Royals reportedly had curiosity in a reunion, but it surely appears fairly clear who would probably win a tiebreaker for his companies if everybody supplied him an analogous deal.
I’m considering of this contract as an “overpay” dictated by circumstances. I don’t suppose that overshooting the marketplace for position gamers to ensure you get a selected one is an efficient long-term plan. The entire motive that this group has seen their compensation decline is that there are lots of such gamers competing for comparatively few jobs. Anybody who claims to make sure – and even 75% sure – that Yastrzemski will outperform the common of his friends on this class is responsible of overconfidence. The long run is unsure and unknowable. Possibly the Braves will probably be proper, and possibly they gained’t, however paying double what everybody else pays for one thing isn’t good technique.
That’s all nicely and good in the long term, however the Braves simply burned down a whole season because of a scarcity of veteran depth. There’s no assist coming from the farm, both. We don’t listing a single hitting prospect in all the group with a 2026 ETA. That is the crew they’ve, and in the event that they’re a participant quick, they could have a tricky time patching that gap. That’s an ideal storm to encourage an aggressive provide early in December, notably if it’s not a contract with franchise-altering draw back if it goes terribly incorrect.
The Braves even obtained a little bit of a sweetener within the deal. If you hear “two years plus a membership choice,” the membership choice is incessantly not more than a toss-in. It’s for some huge cash, or at an especially superior age, or has conditionality, or another motive that it’s extra window dressing than precise distinction maker. This one, although? It’s listed at $7 million, however there’s a $4 million buyout included within the headline contract; Yastrzemski will obtain $19 million over the primary two years, then an extra $4 million if the Braves let him stroll or $7 million if he stays. Now, 38-year-old Mike Yastrzemski doesn’t venture to be all that precious. There’s a good likelihood that even for simply $3 million greater than the buyout, the Braves will want to clear a roster spot and avoid wasting cash by letting Yaz stroll by then. It’s definitely not nugatory, although. It’s mainly at-the-money, in my eyes. In different phrases, there’s a 50% likelihood of the Braves exercising it for the time being. It’s not an enormous toss-in, but it surely’s a pleasant one.
In different phrases, Yastrzemski might need been in a foul spot within the massive image, what with the way in which free company has gone of late, but it surely didn’t matter. He was in a terrific spot domestically, the choice a contending crew with no backup plans determined they needed to have. I used to be anticipating to see Yaz again in San Francisco subsequent yr, to be trustworthy, however what was he going to do, say no to this? The Braves’ predicament was his achieve – and hey, now that he’s a Courageous, they give the impression of being extra more likely to make the playoffs and fewer more likely to have a gaping gap of their roster in 2026. It’s a lesson in how exigent circumstances can result in contracts that look misplaced relative to their peer group.