Peter, Out: Orioles Swipe Alonso From Mets

After a somnambulant first day of the Winter Conferences, one of many buzzier rumors concerned free agent first baseman Pete Alonso getting in his automotive, driving up I-4 from his dwelling in Tampa to Orlando, and pitching himself in particular person to the Purple Sox and Orioles.

Apparently, these conferences went properly. The drive from New York to Baltimore largely takes place on costly toll roads, however Alonso now has an additional $155 million to placed on his EZ Move account. Large Pete, the Polar Bear, the face of the Mets’ franchise, is certain for Baltimore on a five-year contract.

It’s not stunning within the slightest that Alonso signed quickly after Kyle Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies. Schwarber’s deal set the marketplace for the avuncular power-over-all-else NL East DH-type man. And it additionally took the Phillies (in addition to the Reds and Pirates, who had been evidently all in favour of Schwarber and solely Schwarber) out of the marketplace for a middle-of-the-order bat.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Orioles had provided to match Schwarber’s five-year, $150 million deal; on the time, this struck me as a exactly calculated “we tried” effort. Schwarber was unlikely to maneuver all his stuff to take the identical cash from a worse crew, the place he isn’t the undisputed clubhouse chief. On the similar time, the Orioles’ nice sin beneath Mike Elias has been working as if it’s extra vital to be intelligent than profitable; dumping a large bag of cash within the lap of an getting older DH — 56-homer season or not — didn’t look like Elias’ fashion.

Surprises, it seems, may be enjoyable.

Alonso isn’t fairly in Schwarber’s league as a hitter; after his 53-homer rookie marketing campaign, the previous Florida Gator topped out at 46 dingers in 2023. Alonso’s .524 SLG — his highest mark since that rookie yr — ranked twelfth within the majors, one level forward of Michael Busch. His career-high 10.4% stroll price, posted in 2019, would’ve been Schwarber’s profession low.

However Alonso is roughly two years youthful than Schwarber, which is important if you’re speaking about five-year contracts for gamers of their 30s. And he was completely terrific in his stroll yr.

In 2024, Alonso returned to the Mets on a frontloaded two-year take care of an opt-out, having struck out on his seek for a longer-term contract. And he did extra than simply run it again in 2025; he acquired extra aggressive throughout the strike zone, shored up his weak point in opposition to sliders, posted the perfect quality-of-contact numbers of his profession, and ran a .272 batting common and a 141 wRC+.

The Orioles have had solely three offensive seasons that good up to now 20 years: Two by Chris Davis within the 2010s, and one by Gunnar Henderson in 2024.

Alonso is clearly an improve at both first base or DH for nearly anybody, and the Orioles, who traded Ryan O’Hearn on the deadline, aren’t one of many exceptions. Mixed with the Taylor Ward commerce from earlier this offseason, Alonso’s signing brings stability to a Baltimore lineup that was just a little lefty-heavy, with Henderson and Jackson Holliday up close to the highest of the order, and Colton Cowser and Samuel Basallo exhibiting up afterward.

And just like the Corbin Burnes commerce earlier than the 2024 season, that is an indication that Elias and his boss, David Rubenstein, are prepared to go outdoors the homegrown expertise pool to seek out items that’ll put Baltimore excessive. Even when they price lots.

As a result of that is some huge cash for Alonso. Ben Clemens had Alonso booked for 4 years and $120 million; our reader crowdsource estimate averaged out to 4 years and $107 million. ZiPS was barely extra conservative, suggesting $110 million in complete worth for a five-year contract.

I’ll come out and simply say two issues our readers in all probability already know: First, Alonso is excellent now, and can enhance the Orioles fairly a bit within the brief time period. And — as bizarre as this might sound, given how lengthy Baltimore’s been the following scorching factor — the Orioles’ window just isn’t going to remain open endlessly. They solely have two extra seasons of crew management left on Adley Rutschman, and solely three extra on Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Bradish; that traces up with the remaining years of Alonso’s prime.

Which ends up in the second factor you in all probability already know: Large energy hitters like Alonso don’t at all times age properly, and generally, when it goes, it goes abruptly. Orioles followers, having seen the backend of Davis’ profession, know this in addition to anybody.

However I suppose we’ll cross that bridge once we get there.

The Orioles have some work to do; their rotation is fairly weak for a crew with championship aspirations, and the AL East just isn’t the type of division that lends itself to somebody backing into first place by going 88-74. This division holds the previous two AL pennant winners, the Blue Jays and the Yankees, a Purple Sox crew that’s rearming for one more playoff run, and a Rays crew that generally comes out of nowhere to win 92 video games with a lineup of fellows you’ve by no means heard of. If the Orioles wish to contend, they’ll need to be good, not simply fortunate. Alonso is an efficient incremental step, however he can’t throw 150 league-average innings.

So simple as the image is for Alonso’s new crew, his previous membership, the Mets, are in a little bit of a pickle.

I’ll begin by saying this, as somebody who doesn’t want an excessive amount of provocation to snort on the Mets. (I’ve watched Mr. Met fall off the stage on the Lumineers live performance about 500 instances.) However letting Alonso stroll just isn’t an “Lol, Mets” second for me, even in the future after Edwin Díaz left for the Dodgers with out very a lot monetary provocation.

This can be a 31-year-old right-right first baseman — a DH, actually — who was going to battle defensively with Juan Soto sooner relatively than later. Simply on these grounds, I get a entrance workplace not desirous to commit for 5 years and spend $155 million. Even a entrance workplace bankrolled by Steve Cohen.

And as fashionable as Alonso is, and as many jerseys and bobbleheads as he’s bought over the previous seven seasons, his standing as a franchise icon shouldn’t make him an automated re-sign. Throughout Alonso’s tenure, the Mets have made the playoffs simply twice in seven seasons, advancing previous the Division Collection solely as soon as. In 2025, they ran a $340 million payroll, crapped the mattress down the stretch, received simply 83 video games, and missed the playoffs.

I’m not saying that’s Alonso’s fault. Solely that the period of Mets baseball he’s come to outline has not been particularly profitable. Subsequently, I wouldn’t transfer heaven and earth to maintain him round on franchise legend grounds.

However right here’s the everlasting query when a crew — particularly one with cash — lets a key participant stroll: What are you going to do with the financial savings?

The instance I preserve coming again to is the Washington Nationals, who let Bryce Harper stroll after the 2018 season, then used the cash they freed as much as signal Patrick Corbin. Say what you’ll concerning the final 5 years of that contract, however they don’t win the World Collection in 2019 with out Corbin.

So what are the Mets doing with the cash they’re not paying Alonso and Díaz?

Properly, they’ve signed Devin Williams, which is nice. They’ve additionally swapped getting older supporting gamers by shifting Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. That helps the crew defensively, however it’s explicitly a lateral transfer. And bear in mind, the world’s costliest 83-win crew can’t afford lateral strikes; it has to get higher.

Because it stands, RosterResource is projecting a pair harrowing potentialities: cleanup hitter Mark Vientos and designated hitter Ronny Mauricio. And the pitching workers isn’t going to bail that shallow a lineup out. The one approach to speak your self into the notion that the Mets have a single top-five pitcher within the division is to mix a extremely optimistic view of Nolan McLean with a extremely pessimistic view of Zack Wheeler and Spencer Schwellenbach’s harm recoveries.

Now, it’s nonetheless early within the offseason. The Mets have misplaced two of our high 10 free brokers, however six of the opposite eight are nonetheless on the market. As shocking as it’s to see Alonso go away, it’d be vastly extra stunning for the Mets to go to Spring Coaching with out making a minimum of one huge signing. This crew is greatest considered as incomplete, relatively than troubled.

However after dropping two key gamers in two days, the Mets are going to be beneath strain to finish their imaginative and prescient. They is likely to be higher off with out Alonso, however we received’t have the ability to inform till they create in a alternative.