Within the final aggressive main league baseball recreation of 2025, the Dodgers used six pitchers, 5 of whom had spent most or all of their careers as starters. They used all 4 pitchers from their playoff rotation, most notably getting eight outs from Yoshinobu Yamamoto on zero days’ relaxation to shut out the 11-inning contest. Supervisor Dave Roberts had run out of persistence together with his high-leverage bullpen, a gaggle that had already been strengthened with starter Roki Sasaki late within the common season.
The Dodgers, the perfect crew in baseball, a pressure so immutable it bought the American public to activate capitalism, had a crappy bullpen.
On the second day of baseball’s Winter Conferences, the Dodgers signed Edwin Díaz to a three-year, $69 million contract.
There’s nice magnificence within the easiest answer.
In 2025, the 31-year-old Díaz saved 28 video games, with an ERA of 1.63. There’s been a number of chatter just lately about the way it’s a foul concept to make use of single-season ERA to judge relievers, with the commerce of Jose A. Ferrer and the Mets signing Devin Williams as Díaz’s inheritor presumptive. OK, then: Díaz was eighth amongst certified relievers in FIP-, second in strikeout charge, third in Ok-BB%, and fourth in xERA. No person who’s forward of him in any of these classes is a free agent this season.
Díaz is, subsequently, our no. 10 general free agent and high free agent reliever this winter.
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The Dodgers, in fact, have shopped on the high of the aid pitcher market earlier than, and with disastrous impact. In 2025, the Dodgers spent roughly $30 million on Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, and Brock Stewart — their two large reliever free brokers and their large deadline acquisition — and bought zero playoff innings out of the trio. Incumbent relievers Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Brusdar Graterol have been all harm. Blake Treinen would possibly’ve completed much less injury to the trigger if he’d been harm too. So the Dodgers know higher than anybody that Díaz just isn’t a certain factor.
However, like, he’s about as shut as you will get. Over a decade within the majors, between stints in Seattle and New York, Díaz has persistently been among the finest aid pitchers in baseball. Since 2020, he’s second amongst certified relievers in FIP- and Ok-BB%. Since his rookie season of 2016, he’s third and eighth in these classes.
There have, in fact, been hiccups. Díaz blew out his knee whereas celebrating a Puerto Rico win on the 2023 World Baseball Basic, forcing him to overlook the entire of that main league season. Since his return, his fastball has been extra within the 97 mph vary reasonably than 99, however with that sort of velo and constant strikeout charges within the excessive 30s, he’s misplaced little or no when it comes to efficiency.
Díaz was additionally messy and walk-prone throughout the Mets’ run to the 2024 NLCS. He famously allowed three runs in a five-batter span in Recreation 2 of the NLDS in Philadelphia — although not as famously as it will’ve been had the Mets dropped another recreation of that collection. He’d beforehand blown a save in an equally chaotic final-day clincher in Atlanta.
These failings, if repeated within the playoffs in Los Angeles, would absolutely result in a lot consternation in Dodgers World, however I’m inclined to chop Díaz slightly slack given the circumstances. Díaz, a one-inning nearer for his total profession, was being stretched to cowl a number of innings as supervisor Carlos Mendoza white-knuckled his crew over the road. Díaz threw 96 pitches over his last three regular-season appearances of 2024, then 39 extra in his first playoff outing, after which at the very least 22 in each look that adopted. Greater than something, Díaz appeared gassed, and the extent to which he bounced again within the 2025 common season helps such a studying.
Liberating Díaz from Mendoza will do the previous good. Absolutely the Dodgers’ supervisor doesn’t have a historical past of bizarre high-leverage bullpen selections…
As gaudy as Díaz’s achievements have been over the previous decade, I do assume it’s honest to fret about the way forward for an influence pitcher who’ll flip 32 within the week earlier than Opening Day. Díaz additionally has extremely restricted postseason expertise — and never a lot to brag about when he has pitched in October — which could matter, or it may not. Even when Díaz can solely function a standard nearer, that’ll clear up a number of issues for the Dodgers’ bullpen downstream, however such a limitation isn’t ultimate for a high-profile aid ace.
The yellow flag I’m really nervous about with Díaz is his quality-of-contact numbers. The factor that made him the perfect reliever in baseball in his prime was not simply that he missed extra bats than a homesick vampire; Díaz additionally had terrific high quality of contact-suppression numbers. However a 97th-percentile hard-hit charge in 2024 become a 57th-percentile hard-hit charge in 2025 — not precisely alarming, given the still-elite whiff charge, however price monitoring.
That quantity would’ve dissuaded me from providing Díaz one other $100 million contract, however the Dodgers didn’t have to try this. Ben Clemens predicted a three-year, $75 million contract; our median crowdsource estimate was 4 years and $84 million. To get Díaz for 3 years and $69 million looks as if a tidy piece of enterprise for Los Angeles.
You’d count on ZiPS to hate a aid pitcher in his 30s signing for giant cash, however that’s not likely the case; ZiPS tasks Díaz to be price $58 million over the following three seasons:
ZiPS Projection – Edwin Díaz
| 12 months | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 2.93 | 57 | 0 | 58.3 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 20 | 84 | 147 | 1.3 |
| 2027 | 5 | 3 | 3.21 | 55 | 0 | 56.0 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 21 | 78 | 134 | 1.1 |
| 2028 | 5 | 3 | 3.42 | 54 | 0 | 55.3 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 22 | 74 | 126 | 0.9 |
It’s price noting that Los Angeles is getting again on the costly nearer carousel only one yr into Scott’s four-year contract. Even with roughly $48 million (accounting for deferrals) nonetheless owed to Scott, the Dodgers haven’t waited round to see if he may be salvaged. With this a lot cash out there, and a lot of the lineup and rotation already set, they’re not going to threat their 2026 playoff ambitions by tempting the sunk price fallacy. If Scott wakes up tomorrow and decides to not be as ludicrously hittable as he was in 2025, a lot the higher. However Andrew Friedman and his merry band are sensible to not wager the season on that occuring.
Spare a thought, additionally, for the Mets, who simply misplaced their franchise nearer. Changing Díaz with Williams was a wise transfer; I’d reasonably have Díaz for 2026 in isolation, however given the selection between Díaz at $23 million a yr or Williams at $15 million a yr, I’d take Williams and reallocate the financial savings elsewhere.
And the Mets do have greater wants than the bullpen. Both re-signing or changing Pete Alonso needs to be the highest precedence; the Mets’ lineup thins out very quickly as presently constituted. The rotation has some depth, however no bona fide no. 1 starter until the messianic hype surrounding Nolan McLean comes good shortly. With these holes nonetheless to fill and Williams already below contract, the Mets might afford to let Díaz stroll.
It is smart that Díaz is shifting from one of many two richest groups within the league to the opposite; an elite nearer is a luxurious participant, turning into extra helpful the higher his 25 teammates are. It’s doable to win a World Collection with out one, in fact, but it surely’s robust. The Dodgers simply confirmed that; it’s fairly affordable that they aren’t desirous to repeat the experiment.