Previous Blood: Phillies Re-Signal Kyle Schwarber

No participant, not even Bryce Harper, has personified the Phillies’ latest run of 4 straight journeys to the postseason greater than Kyle Schwarber. Confronted with the prospect of dropping their signature slugger to the division rival Mets, Philadelphia as a substitute retained Schwarber on a five-year, $150 million deal, information of which enlivened the Winter Conferences right here in Orlando on Tuesday.

Schwarber, who turns 33 on March 5, hit .240/.365/.563 and led the Nationwide League with 56 dwelling runs and 132 RBI whereas enjoying in all 162 video games in 2025. He set profession highs in dwelling runs, RBI, video games performed, slugging share, wRC+ (152), and WAR (4.9). The final of these marks owed a lot to supervisor Rob Thomson’s limiting him to eight video games in left subject, the place he’s a significant legal responsibility, having totaled -37 FRV and -34 DRS in 2022–23. Solely Shohei Ohtani took extra plate appearances as a chosen hitter in 2025 than Schwarber’s 687.

Schwarber’s season — which propelled him to a second-place end within the NL MVP voting behind Ohtani (who received unanimously) — could have been a profession 12 months, however it was no fluke. Due to his ongoing work with hitting coach Kevin Lengthy, who joined the Phillies just some months earlier than Schwarber signed his four-year, $79 million cope with them in March 2022, he has developed from a pushover in opposition to lefties right into a high menace in these matchups. From 2015–21 with the Cubs, Nationals, and Pink Sox, Schwarber hit simply .214/.324/.361 (86 wRC+) in 584 plate appearances in opposition to lefties, making 100 PA in opposition to them simply twice and topping a 100 wRC+ in opposition to them solely within the final of these seasons, throughout which he bounced from Washington to Boston. He has topped 200 plate appearances in opposition to lefties in all 4 of his seasons with the Phillies, and he was an above-average hitter in opposition to them in every of the final three. Over the previous two years, his 524 plate appearances in opposition to lefties led the majors, whereas his 157 wRC+ (.275/.385/.547) and slugging share each ranked second behind Yordan Alvarez (albeit in simply 247 PA). By comparability, he hit .244/.365/.525 (143 wRC+) in opposition to righties in that span.

As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb detailed in Could, with Lengthy’s assist, Schwarber has overcome his fears when stepping in in opposition to the sport’s greatest lefties. He’s taken to donning a C-Flap helmet and extra physique armor for these plate appearances, and has adjusted his mindset in addition to his mechanics:

Every time Schwarber is within the cage with Lengthy earlier than a matchup in opposition to a tricky lefty, Schwarber says the road. Be ready to die. It have to be a coincidence that few lefty hitters can match the success he’s loved since including the face guard.

“I imply, the thoughts’s a strong factor, proper?” Schwarber mentioned. “You inform your self one factor, and the following factor , you’re having success. However I really feel there are quite a lot of various things, too, that went into that.”

…“It’s work,” Lengthy mentioned. “It’s prepared your self. It’s understanding what a lefty is making an attempt to do to you. Understanding the angles. Understanding what pitches do in opposition to lefties. He’s obtained a extremely good grasp on it. He’s shortened his swing because the time I met him to the place he’s now.”

Statcast’s bat-tracking knowledge goes again solely so far as the second half of 2023, however since then, Schwarber’s common swing size has decreased from 7.9 ft to 7.5 with out compromising his bat velocity, which averaged 77.3 mph in 2025, inserting him within the 98th percentile. This previous season, he hit the ball more durable than ever, setting highs in common exit velocity (94.3 mph), barrel fee (20.8%), hard-hit fee (a significant league-high 59.6%), xSLG (.601), and xwOBA (.414) — all good for the 98th percentile or greater — and he maximized that influence by trimming his strikeout fee to the bottom it had been since 2021 (27.2%).

The large query is whether or not Schwarber’s maturation as a hitter can offset the gravitational results of the ageing curve, as this contract covers his ages 33–37 seasons. ZiPS is kind of pessimistic; right here’s the projection equipped by Dan Szymborski:

In case you’re questioning, that projection will get Schwarber to 489 dwelling runs (he has 340), with ZiPS estimating his odds of reaching 500 at a wholesome 48%. I’ll kick the Corridor of Fame chatter can down the highway whereas stating that the ZiPS contract suggestion for Schwarber’s projection is simply $50 million. Whereas his precise contract was at all times going to be effectively above no matter a strict projection-based valuation urged, this deal blows previous the figures from our Prime 50 Free Brokers record, the place Schwarber ranked sixth. Ben Clemens forecasted only a $105 million dedication over three years ($35 million AAV), whereas our median crowdsource estimation got here in at $112 million over 4 years ($28 million AAV). MLB Commerce Rumors anticipated him to signal for 5 years and $135 million ($27 million AAV) and famous that this deal is the largest free agent assure ever for a place participant getting into his age-33 season or later, far surpassing the $92 million Josh Donaldson obtained from the Twins in 2020 — and that was for 4 years.

Hell, the Pirates — the Pirates! — reportedly supplied Schwarber a four-year contract price round $120 million, in accordance to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, whereas the Reds (for whom Schwarber grew up rooting), Giants, Mets, Orioles, and Pink Sox are among the many groups identified to have checked in on him. Such widespread curiosity was anticipated on condition that Schwarber is arguably the most effective pure hitter available on the market and has an ideal clubhouse fame as effectively. As Clemens wrote:

If you happen to attempt to approximate Schwarber’s market primarily based on the WAR projections you see above, you’re going to come back up quick. Groups are not any dummies, and that quantity doesn’t do job of capturing Schwarber’s complete worth. He’s the most effective 15 or so hitters within the majors, and defensive means issues far much less when that’s the case. Somebody has to play DH for each crew, and Schwarber represents an improve for each crew save the Dodgers and maybe the Astros.

In relation to pure offense, Schwarber might be the most effective man available on the market, and if it’s not him, it’s the man beneath him [Pete Alonso, no. 7 on our list]. That provides him a powerful negotiating place. You possibly can’t replicate Schwarber within the combination with two so-so hitters. You possibly can’t faux a 50-homer DH. Groups may be risk-averse within the excessive today, however there isn’t precisely quite a lot of danger in “will Kyle Schwarber hit subsequent 12 months?” The larger danger, in truth, may be lacking the most effective bat available on the market whenever you’re making an attempt to win now.

Solely Schwarber’s age stored him from rating greater on our record. Certainly, past the standard age-related issues, one problem as regards to retaining him is the extent to which he’ll stop Harper — who’s 33 years outdated himself and declined within the subject in 2025, his second full season as a primary baseman — from sliding into the DH slot down the highway.

That’s only one extra concern for a crew that had the worst ranked protection among the many 12 playoff members this previous 12 months, and was bounced from the Division Collection in 4 video games by the Dodgers, due partially to defensive lapses. Once more, although, the Phillies are already preserving their largest defensive legal responsibility off the grass whereas retaining their best hitter, and it’s as much as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to determine how they’ll enhance elsewhere. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, whose protection has declined significantly, is a free agent, and the outfield wants a big makeover; Dombrowski is trying to discover a commerce accomplice for proper fielder Nick Castellanos, who has netted simply 0.8 WAR over the previous 4 seasons and is owed $20 million in 2026, the ultimate 12 months of his deal. Past that, Ranger Suárez is a free agent, Zack Wheeler is out previous Opening Day following surgical procedure to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome, and Aaron Nola is coming off a 6.01 ERA, so the rotation might use substantial bolstering as effectively.

With Schwarber in place, the Phillies have checked one merchandise off their procuring record, maybe the largest one. For at the least the close to time period, this reunion guarantees to be an entertaining one as he launches extra baseballs into the stratosphere. To maintain the Phillies within the playoff hunt, nevertheless, will take much more than that.