M’s, Nats Change Harry Ford, Jose Ferrer

On Saturday afternoon, the Mariners traded catching prospect Harry Ford to the Nationals in change for Jose A. Ferrer; the Mariners additionally despatched right-handed pitcher Isaac Lyon, their Tenth-round decide from this 12 months’s draft, to Washington. Robert Murray of FanSided had the information first.

This can be a commerce that raises just a few eyebrows. Whereas Ford moved via the minor leagues slowly by trendy requirements, he’s been a consensus Prime 100 prospect for practically three years now. It’s somewhat jarring to see somebody of that caliber dealt for a reliever, significantly one with pedestrian surface-level numbers and good however not sterling peripherals. My preliminary response was that Seattle bought low on Ford, although additional assessment has modified my considering somewhat. Let’s dive in.

The Mariners’ facet of this takes somewhat extra nuance to work via, so we’ll begin with their state of affairs. Ford is an efficient, if not nice prospect. He’s been on our Prime 100 record for a pair seasons now on the energy of a well-rounded sport, ending the 2025 season ranked forty third total as a 50 FV. He can hit somewhat bit, there’s common energy that he’s studying to faucet into, and he’s rising right into a dependable, if unspectacular defender behind the plate. There isn’t a lot star potential right here, and I’ll say extra on why that’s in a bit, however he does challenge as a daily.

However Ford was additionally as blocked as any prospect within the minors, caught behind MVP runner up Cal Raleigh. Raleigh is sturdy, glorious, and completely entrenched after inking a six-year extension this previous March. The Mariners had experimented with Ford within the outfield to see if they may discover one thing else for him to do, because it’s been clear for some time now that his future wouldn’t be behind the plate in Seattle. He’s been an apparent commerce candidate for at the least a 12 months, and the one shock is that it took so lengthy for the M’s to maneuver him. They’ve reportedly been buying him for affect relievers elsewhere; frankly, it is a swap that might have made a ton of sense 4 months in the past, when Ford was simply as blocked and the Mariners might have used extra aid depth in entrance of Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash for his or her playoff push. Oh nicely, not prefer it bit them within the butt throughout October.

So, buying and selling Ford is sensible. However for Ferrer? A man with a 4.36 profession ERA? Don’t they’ve holes across the infield, ones they could must fill by way of commerce because it looks as if their low season price range is fairly modest? What provides?

As readers possible know, Ferrer’s numbers underneath the hood are a lot better than his ERA. His FIP during the last two years is underneath 3.00, because of tiny stroll and residential run charges. He’s additionally one of many league’s foremost groundball turbines. His groundball charge is simply over 60% for his profession, and of the pitchers who threw at the least 50 innings in 2025, solely José Soriano, Jhoan Duran, and Tim Hill topped Ferrer’s 62.6% mark. As you’d anticipate, it’s actually onerous to drive the ball in opposition to him, and he solely allowed 5 lengthy balls in 76.1 innings of labor in 2025. He takes full benefit of his means to dampen harm on contact, pounding the zone to the tune of a 2.21 profession BB/9 charge and an in-zone pitch charge of practically 60% (roughly the ninetieth percentile for the league).

And naturally, the Mariners aren’t simply buying these numbers. They’re buying and selling for the possibility to unlock extra, and you’ll see compelling paths ahead right here.

This season, Ferrer principally simply pounded the zone along with his sinker whereas mixing in a changeup about 20% of the time and a slider a couple of times an outing. His sinker is kind of good, because it sits within the higher 90s, touches 100, and options plus tail. It’s a fast and dependable means for him to generate outs, and you’ll see why he leans on it. However like most pitchers who spam the fastball, there’s an argument for a utilization adjustment right here. The changeup carried out very nicely in 2025, producing massive whiff and chase charges, and hitters didn’t do a lot with it even on contact. He might most likely stand to make use of it extra.

The true path ahead will be the slider, although. Ferrer’s sits within the low 90s and has tight, two-plane motion, not fairly cutterish however within the neighborhood. His command of it isn’t nice, usually within the grime to the glove facet, however whether or not it’s as a result of guys don’t anticipate the Spanish Inquisition or they’re simply not seeing his spin very nicely, opponents did completely nothing with it and whiffed greater than half the occasions they swung. The Mariners have had a number of success getting fastball-heavy arms to diversify their arsenal — Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are two apparent examples — and it might come as no shock if they’ve Ferrer lean on the bender much more going ahead.

Put every part collectively, and you’ll think about why Seattle sees Ferrer as an affect reliever, the type price parting with a high prospect for. Sources from across the sport like Ferrer as an upside play. He throws onerous, he kilos the zone, he has three pitches that flash plus, and there’s a comparatively easy adjustment that might unlock extra. With 4 years of group management left, he’s not even costly. He lengthens the bullpen and provides the Mariners a left-handed weapon of a magnitude they didn’t have final season. There’s at all times danger in buying aid pitching, however this seems like a protected means so as to add 1-1.5 WAR to the bullpen, and along with his expertise, a nutty, sub-2.00 ERA season just isn’t outdoors the realm of risk.

On Washington’s facet, this additionally makes loads of sense. Ferrer’s a troublesome man to lose, however good relievers are a luxurious on a rebuilding membership and swapping bullpen arms for bats with on a regular basis upside is a sound thought. That’s very true behind the plate. Nationals catchers produced -1.4 WAR in 2025, final within the majors, and had been terrible on each side of the ball. Led principally by Riley Adams and Keibert Ruiz, the membership’s backstops hit .225/.270/.322, good for a 65 wRC+ that was twenty ninth in baseball. Thanks partially to Ruiz’s horrible framing numbers (his mark of -5.3 runs prevented was third from the underside amongst all catchers, in 65 video games no much less), Washington’s catchers had been additionally the league’s worst collective on protection as nicely. Ruiz was as soon as a high prospect, however he’s now 27, has no method, and isn’t precisely an asset defensively. It’s time to maneuver on.

Enter Ford. A primary spherical decide in 2021, Ford progressed slowly and steadily towards the massive leagues earlier than making his debut in September. His method has been superior: He has an excellent eye, he acknowledges smooth stuff out of the hand, and whereas he doesn’t swing a ton, he reliably turns it free on pitches he can drive. For those who put a ton of inventory in swing choices, that is your man.

Statistically, all is nicely. His manufacturing has been strikingly constant, with Ford notching a wRC+ between 125 and 135 at every full-season degree. He’s additionally posted very small deviations in his stroll, strikeout, and — other than 2024, which he spent in an enormous, homer-suppressing yard — ISO numbers, all of which had been encouraging. For those who worth constant minor league manufacturing, that is your man.

Scouts and evaluators should not universally bought on Ford’s means to translate that manufacturing to the massive leagues, although. His bat velocity is common and he’s periodically struggled getting his bat to fastballs up within the zone. In his most up-to-date prospect write-up, Eric coated an adjustment Ford made along with his toes and timing that appears to have helped this season, however clearly the massive leagues will present a distinct stress take a look at. I see a median bat with an opportunity to develop into common sport energy, however there are scouts who would take the underneath on each.

Ford’s defensive progress has mirrored his ascent via the minors. His framing has improved however remains to be fringy, and he could profit from an ABS help (although he was really fairly unhealthy at difficult pitches this season). He shines extra in spots the place his athleticism takes heart stage. He’s fast on performs the place the ball is tapped out in entrance of the plate, and he’s going to catch his share of baserunners. He has an above-average arm, his throwing accuracy has improved, and he caught practically 25% of would-be-thieves in 2025. Early-career reviews questioned whether or not he had an excessive amount of bother merely catching the ball, however his passed-ball figures have plummeted since 2023. I’m projecting a median defender, although once more, there are evaluators who will take the underneath.

All of it provides as much as a 50 FV report, albeit one the place there isn’t a number of wiggle room if one of many instruments doesn’t attain its projection or Ford’s method buckles in opposition to higher stuff. In fact, a part of that projection is a mirrored image of the state of catching all through the league; the bar for being a median common isn’t very excessive proper now. Nonetheless, if he’s common on each side of the ball, that’s an excellent participant, and he’s the type of danger Washington must be taking at this stage. Ford may very well be a part of the following good Nationals group, and even when he falls somewhat in need of the place we have now him right here, he’s possible regular sufficient to be an actual improve over what they’ve trotted out in latest seasons.

Let’s rapidly contact on the opposite participant within the deal. Lyon, the son of former massive leaguer Brandon Lyon, signed for practically $200,000 this summer season. He’s an excellent strike thrower with a foul fastball, a slider and alter that flash common, and a supply with some deception in it. He sat within the low 90s in brief begins with Low-A Modesto, and will have one other gear as he fills out. He tasks as an up-down sort and has a low-leverage aid ceiling if he can discover a solution to throw tougher in shorter stints.

One different factor to notice: With Ford now in Washington, Seattle will probably be available in the market for a backup catcher. The membership is reportedly open to a reunion with Mitch Garver, who hit 24 homers amidst in any other case disappointing manufacturing over the previous two years because the membership’s main backup catcher; he additionally began at DH 22 occasions this season. Whereas Raleigh performs practically daily, he does DH pretty usually, so whoever Seattle indicators will most likely begin about 25% of the time behind the plate.

Finally, the deal helps each events, and one exec I spoke with referred to as it a “win win” transfer. The extra I have a look at Ferrer, the extra he looks as if a reliever with one other gear, a man with nearer stuff who’s a a lot good match for Seattle’s bullpen as is. Nonetheless, I believe Washington did nicely right here, getting a high-floor place participant at an space of determined want. The Paul Toboni period is right here now, and Nationals followers must be enthused about his first massive commerce as president of baseball operations with the membership.