JAWS and the 2026 Corridor of Fame Poll: Mark Buehrle

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing take a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the sequence, use the software above; an introduction to JAWS might be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing mission, see right here. All WAR figures confer with the Baseball Reference model except in any other case indicated.

In an age when baseball is so obsessive about velocity, it’s exceptional to recollect how not too long ago it was {that a} pitcher might thrive, yr in and yr out, regardless of averaging within the 85–87 mph vary along with his fastball. But that’s precisely what Mark Buehrle did over the course of his 16-year profession. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 240 kilos, the burly Buehrle was the epitome of the artful lefty, an ultra-durable workhorse who didn’t dominate however who labored rapidly, used quite a lot of pitches — four-seamer, sinker, cutter, curve, changeup — transferring quite a lot of instructions to pound the strike zone, and relied on his fielders to make the performs behind him. From 2001 to ’14, he yearly reached the 30-start and 200-inning plateaus, and he barely missed on the latter entrance in his ultimate season.

August Fagerstrom summed up Buehrle so properly in his 2016 appreciation that I can’t resist sharing chunk of it:

The best way Buehrle succeeded was distinctive, in fact. He received his floor balls, however he wasn’t the perfect at getting floor balls. He restricted walks, however he wasn’t the perfect a limiting walks. He generated delicate contact, however he wasn’t the perfect at producing delicate contact. Buehrle merely averted injury along with his sub-90 mph fastball by throwing strikes whereas concurrently avoiding the center of the plate:

That’s Buehrle’s whole profession in the course of the PITCHf/x period, and it’s one thing of a exceptional graphic. You see Buehrle dwelling on the first-base fringe of the zone, ensuring to maintain his pitches low, whereas additionally having the ability to spot the identical pitch on the alternative aspect of the zone, for probably the most half avoiding the guts of the plate. Buehrle’s retained the flexibility to pitch this manner till the tip; simply final yr [2015], he led all of baseball within the proportion of pitches positioned on the horizontal edges of the plate.

Drafted and developed by the White Sox — virtually plucked from obscurity, at that — Buehrle spent 12 of his 16 seasons on the South Aspect, making 4 All-Star groups and serving to Chicago to 3 postseason appearances, together with its 2005 World Sequence win, which broke the franchise’s 88-year championship drought. Whereas with the White Sox, he grew to become simply the second pitcher in franchise historical past to throw a number of no-hitters, first doing so in 2007 towards the Rangers after which including an ideal recreation in ’09 towards the Rays. After his time in Chicago, he spent a bitter season with the newly rebranded Miami Marlins, and when that predictably melted down, spent three years with the Blue Jays, incomes another All-Star nod and serving to them make the playoffs for the primary time in 22 years.

Although Buehrle reached the 200-win plateau in his ultimate season, he was simply 36 years outdated when he hung up his spikes, stopping him from extra absolutely padding his counting stats or framing his case for Cooperstown in the perfect mild. A more in-depth look past the superficial numbers means that, whereas he’s the equal or higher of a number of enshrined pitchers in keeping with WAR and JAWS, he’s far off the requirements. Like fellow lefty and ballot-mate Andy Pettitte, he will get a lift from S-JAWS, a workload-adjusted model of beginning pitcher JAWS that I launched in 2022. Up to now, I’ve solely included Pettitte on one among my 5 ballots (one among seven together with digital ballots), although I’m mulling his inclusion this yr — a thought course of that’s going down because the voters grapples with shifting requirements for beginning pitchers following final yr’s election of CC Sabathia and the candidacies of Félix Hernández (who debuted final yr) and Cole Hamels (this poll’s prime newcomer). I’ve pledged to rethink Buehrle as properly; I’m 0-for-5 in voting for him up to now, and I’m hardly alone, as he debuted with 11% in 2021, scraped by with 5.8% the following yr, and has barely regained that misplaced floor, receiving 11.4% in 2025.

A notice about pitcher wins: Common readers know that I typically keep away from dwelling on the stat, as a result of on this more and more specialised period, they owe as a lot to satisfactory offensive, defensive, and bullpen help as they do to a pitcher’s personal efficiency. Whereas one needn’t know what number of wins Buehrle amassed in a season or over his profession to understand his true worth, these totals have affected the favored notion of his profession.

Mark Alan Buehrle was born on March 23, 1979 in St. Charles, Missouri, a northwest suburb of St. Louis. He was the youngest son out of the 4 kids of John and Pat Buehrle. His father labored as a paramedic for 15 years, then managed St. Charles’ water methods; he additionally served as scoutmaster and Little League coach for his boys.

Whilst a toddler, Mark impressed folks along with his arm, dominating bean bag tosses at college picnics. “He was two years outdated and everybody thought he was a ringer,” John informed Sportsnet’s Michael Grange in 2014. “We’d have an arm filled with stuffed toys they usually’d inform us to go rob another person.”

When Mark was six or seven, a fellow Little League coach suggested his father to get some extra knowledgeable instruction for his son. At a baseball clinic in St. Louis, former Cardinals pitcher and 1983 Cy Younger winner John Denny acknowledged the younger Buehrle’s expertise and requested to work with him; the pair labored collectively till Buehrle was 13 or 14. Even so, he was lower from his freshman and sophomore groups at Francis Howell North Excessive Faculty, although he continued to play summer time ball. After a development spurt and recommendation from his mother and father to present it another shot, he made the varsity group as a junior.

Although missing in velocity, Buehrle’s capacity to throw strikes with consistency led to his being recruited by Jefferson Group Faculty, 45 minutes south of St. Charles, the place he acquired a full scholarship. Offsetting a fastball that maxed out at 88 mph with a cutter, curve, and changeup, Buehrle went 7–0 as a freshman in 1998. The White Sox selected him within the thirty eighth spherical as a draft-and-follow, which means that the group retained his rights till every week earlier than the following yr’s draft. White Sox space scout Nathan Durst had appreciated his preliminary view of Buehrle, telling The Athletic’s James Fegan in 2020 that what stood out was the lefty’s “full lack of concern, and all the time throwing to the glove no matter what occurred the earlier pitch or the earlier [at-bat]… The velo is simply not there, however he can actually pitch. He pours it within the strike zone. Every part works. Arm works, management, spins it, really feel for secondaries, however the energy simply isn’t there.”

After going 8–4 with a 1.45 ERA as a sophomore, Buehrle signed for a $150,000 bonus from the White Sox in Might 1999 and rapidly moved on to the Low-A Midwest League, the place he went 7–4 with a 4.10 ERA and eight.3 strikeouts per 9. He put in a robust 16-start stint at Double-A Burlington the next yr, highlighted by a 2.28 ERA. Lower than every week after hanging out two and gathering the win for the U.S. Crew in the All-Star Futures Sport, the 21-year-old southpaw made his main league debut, permitting a run in an inning of rubbish time reduction towards the Brewers on July 16; José Hernández was his first strikeout sufferer. Three days later, he changed the injured Cal Eldred within the White Sox rotation and spun seven innings of two-run ball towards the Twins in his first begin, hanging out 5 and gathering his first win.

Eldred’s elbow damage proved season-ending, however Buehrle made solely two extra begins, with diminishing returns, earlier than returning to the bullpen. He pitched to a 4.21 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 28 appearances totaling 51 1/3 innings of principally low-leverage work for a group that received 95 video games and the AL Central. Included on the playoff roster for the Division Sequence towards the Mariners, he made one mop-up look, permitting back-to-back singles to Raúl Ibañez and Mike Cameron earlier than hanging out Alex Rodriguez. The White Sox, nevertheless, had been swept.

The 22-year-old Buehrle made the White Sox rotation out of spring coaching in 2001, and whereas he was shaky within the early going, permitting 5 or extra runs in 4 of his first six begins, he pitched a three-hit shutout towards the Tigers, kicking off a streak of 24 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings, and completed the yr 16–8 with a 3.29 ERA (fourth within the league, and good for a 140 ERA+) and 6.0 WAR (third) in 221 1/3 innings. His string of 14 straight seasons topping 200 frames was underway. The Sox, nevertheless, sank to 83 wins, and received solely 81 video games in 2002, however within the latter yr, Buehrle made his first All-Star group, and his 239 innings fell one out in need of matching Roy Halladay for the league lead. He might have snared the lead and secured his twentieth victory if not for a house run by the Twins’ Bobby Kielty within the eighth inning of his ultimate begin on the penultimate day of the season, turning a 2–1 lead right into a 3–2 deficit. Because it was, he completed 19–12 with a 3.58 ERA (126 ERA+) and 5.0 WAR (eighth within the league).

Judged by ERAs, Buehrle’s 2003 and ’04 seasons (4.14 and three.89, respectively) weren’t fairly as much as the requirements of his first two as a starter, although he totaled a decent 6.7 WAR in 475 2/3 innings and acquired himself some safety within the type of a three-year, $18 million extension with a membership choice for 2007. What’s fascinating to notice about his up-and-down performances is that by FanGraphs’ model of WAR, his 2001–04 seasons — which featured single-season ERAs that differed from greatest to worst by 0.85 runs per 9 and Baseball Reference WAR totals that ranged from 2.5 to six.0 — had been nearly an identical, along with his WAR totals falling within the 4.0–4.5 vary and FIP- figures starting from 87 all the best way to… 89. In the meantime, his BABIPs ranged from .242 in 2001 to .296 in ’03.

Right here it’s essential to notice that on a career-long foundation, B-Ref’s model of WAR works in Buehrle’s favor by rewarding him for out-pitching his peripherals (3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP) by means of some mixture of contact suppression and sequencing. On the latter entrance, he typically drew comparisons to Corridor of Famer Tom Glavine, whose profession 3.54 ERA far outdistanced his 3.95 FIP. Buehrle’s 59.1 bWAR (together with offense) is about 15% greater than his 51.5 fWAR.

By considerably trimming his house run fee, Buehrle posted profession bests in each ERA and FIP (3.12 and three.42, respectively) in 2005, heading a rotation that included three different hurlers (Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, and José Contreras) who like him every reached the 32-start/200-inning thresholds. After three straight second-place finishes within the AL Central, together with an 83–79 marketing campaign underneath first-year supervisor Ozzie Guillen in 2004, the White Sox improved to 99–63 and received the AL Central. Buehrle led the AL with 236 2/3 innings (he’d carried out so the yr earlier than as properly), made his second All-Star group, and totaled 4.8 WAR. For the one time in his profession, he acquired point out within the Cy Younger voting, although he nonetheless completed fifth; Bartolo Colon received.

Buehrle’s postseason efficiency was uneven, as he sandwiched seven-inning, four-run performances within the Division Sequence towards the defending champion Crimson Sox and within the World Sequence towards the Astros round a five-hit full recreation within the ALCS towards the Angels. He received satisfactory offensive help in all three begins, every of them one-run Sport 2 wins by the White Sox; the ALCS win got here on a walk-off double by Joe Crede.

Buehrle made a cameo within the 14th inning of Sport 3 of the World Sequence, after the White Sox scored two runs to take a 7–5 lead. With two outs and runners on the corners, he relieved Damaso Marte and induced Adam Everett to come out to shortstop Juan Uribe, incomes the one save of his main league profession. The White Sox would end their four-game sweep — and 11–1 postseason run — the following evening, giving them their first championship since 1917.

The additional innings Buehrle threw within the postseason might have caught as much as him in 2006. After ending June with a 9–4 report and three.22 ERA (however only a 4.53 FIP), a efficiency that led to his third All-Star choice, he was torched for a 7.12 ERA the remainder of the best way, going 3–9 and serving up 24 house runs in 92 1/3 innings throughout that slog. He skipped his ultimate flip however nonetheless completed with 204 innings, albeit with a career-worst 4.99 ERA. Regardless of his dud of a season, the White Sox picked up his $9.5 million choice, however his 2007 season didn’t begin properly; he took a Ryan Garko line drive off his left forearm within the second inning of his April 5 outing, and needed to depart. However on April 18, a cold evening at U.S. Mobile Discipline, with first-pitch temperatures at 40 levels, he tossed a no-hitter towards the Rangers, with a fifth-inning stroll of Sammy Sosa the one blemish.

Although the White Sox went simply 72–90, and although Buehrle made simply three September begins in order that the group might consider its youthful rotation choices, he completed the yr with 30 begins, 201 innings, a 3.63 ERA (130 ERA+) and a career-high 6.1 WAR, good for sixth within the league. In July, he signed a four-year, $56 million extension.

With children John Danks and Gavin Floyd coming by means of within the rotation, and with Buehrle delivering a typical season (15–12, 3.79 ERA, and 4.4 WAR in 218 2/3 innings) highlighted by a 2.29 ERA in September, the White Sox received an AL Central race that wanted a Sport 163 tiebreaker, which they received 1–0 on Jim Thome’s seventh-inning homer off the Twins’ Nick Blackburn, and eight shutout innings from Danks. Alas, in Sport 2 of the Division Sequence towards the Rays, with the White Sox already down 1–0 within the sequence, Buehrle allowed 5 runs in seven innings and took the loss; Tampa Bay received the sequence in 4 video games.

Buehrle’s prime spotlight in 2009, and maybe the highest spotlight of his profession, would come towards those self same Rays. On July 23 at U.S. Mobile, he made historical past by retiring all 27 Tampa Bay hitters in a row for simply the sixteenth excellent recreation in fashionable main league historical past, however the first of six inside a 37-month span. Probably the most dramatic play of the sport got here with no person out within the prime of the ninth, when middle fielder Dewayne Sensible, who had simply entered the sport as a defensive alternative, climbed the wall to rob Gabe Kapler of a house run.

In his subsequent begin, Buehrle threw 5 2/3 excellent innings earlier than issuing a stroll to Alexi Casilla after which a single to Denard Span. In doing so, he set a significant league report by retiring 45 consecutive hitters, surpassing Jim Barr (1972 Giants) and longtime teammate Bobby Jenks (2007 White Sox). The report — ultimately damaged by Yusmeiro Petit in 2014 — highlighted what turned out to be Buehrle’s fourth All-Star season, and his first of 4 straight with a Gold Glove. His 5.3 WAR was good for seventh within the AL, although his 4.46 FIP was the second-highest mark of his profession.

Buehrle spent two extra years in Chicago, delivering two Buehrle-esque seasons that had been comparable by way of wins (13 apiece), FIP (3.90 and three.98), and WAR (3.8 apiece) however divergent in ERAs (4.28 in 2010, 3.59 in ’11) because of various BABIPs (.313 and .294); within the former, he struck out a career-low 11.0% of batters. The White Sox, who had received 79 video games in 2009, rebounded to 88 wins and a second-place AL end in ’10, however fell again to 79 wins in ’11.

Simply earlier than the tip of the 2011 season, Guillen stepped down because the supervisor of the White Sox after they wouldn’t provide him an extension. The transfer allowed him to change into the supervisor of the now-Miami Marlins, who had been within the technique of a significant makeover as they moved into model new Marlins Park. That the Sox didn’t provide Buehrle an extension earlier than he reached free company performed into the 32-year-old lefty’s resolution about his personal future. He by no means did get a proper provide from the White Sox, whereas the Nationals pursued him on a three-year deal. Finally, he reunited with Guillen on a four-year, $58 million deal that was a part of a $191 million December spending binge throughout which the Marlins additionally signed José Reyes (six years, $106 million) and Heath Bell (three years, $27 million) and reportedly pursued Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols.

Buehrle was as stable as ever in Miami (3.74 ERA and three.5 WAR, together with -0.7 for offense through his inept 3-for-67, 29-strikeout exhibiting on the plate), and regardless of an 8–14 April, the new-look group climbed right into a tie for first place within the NL East on June 3… solely to plunge right into a 3–17 skid and end 69–93. Guillen received the axe on October 23, and 4 weeks later, the Marlins traded Buehrle, Reyes, Josh Johnson, and two different gamers to Toronto in alternate for a seven-player package deal. The Marlins justified the deal by pointing to their poor attendance (twelfth in a 16-team league) of their new ballpark, although the truth that the franchise had burned followers with three earlier fireplace gross sales shouldn’t be underestimated.

The commerce introduced an issue for Buehrle, in that he couldn’t take his 65-pound pit bull to Ontario, which had prohibited the canines; slightly than go away his pet in another person’s care or commute from a municipality that did permit pit bulls (as he had carried out by dwelling in Florida’s Broward County), he selected to depart his entire household — spouse Jamie, two young children, and the canine — in St. Louis for the season. His first yr north of the border was nothing to put in writing house about (4.15 ERA, 99 ERA+, 2.3 WAR), because the Blue Jays went 74–88, however because of a career-low 0.67 homers per 9 in 2014, he made his fifth and ultimate All-Star group, posting his lowest ERA and FIP since 2005 (3.30 and three.66, respectively) and serving to the Blue Jays enhance to 83–79. His 202 innings gave him 14 straight seasons at that plateau, a feat matched or bettered by solely seven pitchers since 1901 — Warren Spahn (17); Gaylord Perry and Don Sutton (each 15); and Christy Mathewson, Greg Maddux, and Phil Niekro (all 14) — all of whom are Corridor of Famers. Cy Younger had 19 straight seasons with at the least 200 innings spanning from 1891 to 1909.

Buehrle ended the 2014 season with 199 wins, and neither he nor his teammates let the suspense construct when it got here to the milestone. In his season debut on April 10, 2015 in Baltimore, the Blue Jays noticed him a 4–0 lead earlier than he’d even thrown a pitch, and at one level led 9–1. Buehrle needed to grind his means by means of six innings, retiring the aspect so as simply as soon as however permitting solely two runs to get the W.

The Blue Jays hadn’t made the playoffs since profitable back-to-back World Sequence in 1992 and ’93, however Buehrle did his greatest to assist finish that drought. He carried a 3.31 ERA into mid-August, however posted a 5.56 ERA over his ultimate 9 begins, battling shoulder soreness that necessitated a cortisone shot. With the Blue Jays having clinched the AL East title, he threw 6 2/3 innings and allowed 4 runs on October 2, their a hundred and sixtieth recreation of the season. Two days later, needing two innings to maintain his streak of 200-inning seasons alive and with rumors of his retirement within the air, supervisor John Gibbons gave Buehrle one other flip. Sadly, he couldn’t get out of the primary inning, permitting 5 hits and a stroll, exacerbated by two errors behind him. He retired simply two batters, and was charged with eight runs, all unearned.

What’s extra, the Blue Jays bypassed Buehrle for a postseason roster spot, as David Value, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, and R.A. Dickey had been all pitching properly at that time. “It’s robust, it sucks, however I perceive the scenario,” he stated. “I haven’t been throwing nice the final month, and we’ve received 4 guys who’ve been throwing the [heck] out of the ball. They’re going to take it and run with it. I’ll be prepared if one thing occurs.” Whereas these starters’ postseason performances had been uneven, Buehrle didn’t pitch once more. The Blue Jays made it so far as Sport 6 of the ALCS earlier than being ousted by the Royals.

A free agent once more at age 37, Buehrle acquired inquiries from at the least 10 groups; the Toronto Solar’s Bob Elliot reported that he would both signal with the hometown Cardinals or retire. No deal got here to cross, and as of February, he had no plans to signal however had not dominated out a comeback. He remained dedicated to not pitching, and in February 2017, the White Sox introduced they’d retire his No. 56 jersey, at which level he stated that he had kind of determined that the four-year contract he signed with the Marlins can be his final. “I’ve all the time informed folks I used to be a younger man that got here into the large leagues unknown,” he stated on the time. “Type of snuck into the large leagues and I needed to sort of sneak my means out.”

…

Pitchers who win 200 video games have change into comparatively uncommon; Buehrle is one among simply 26 to debut within the majors for the reason that begin of 1984 and attain that milestone, whereas simply two energetic pitchers, Gerrit Cole (153) and Chris Sale (145) are even inside 75 wins of the mark. The truth that Buehrle blew previous the milestone whereas making his final look earlier than his thirty seventh birthday invitations a more in-depth look, significantly on a poll the place Pettitte and his 256 wins obtain sufficient help to persist as a candidate.

That stated, Buehrle doesn’t precisely stand out even inside this firm. He’s Nineteenth in wins, forward of Corridor of Famers John Smoltz (213) and Halladay (203). He’s tied for sixteenth with Pettitte and Jon Lester in ERA+ (117), and whereas the trio are only one level behind Glavine, that’s in about 1,100 fewer innings for Buehrle and Pettitte, and about 1,700 fewer for Lester. Buehrle is useless final on this group in strikeout fee (13.6%) — the one 200-win pitcher from the interval moreover Kenny Rogers who didn’t attain 2,000 strikeouts, and in Buehrle’s case, that’s whereas rating fifteenth in innings.

Past the pitching triple crown stuff, Buehrle is one among 13 pitchers in that 200-win group by no means to win a Cy Younger award. His lone fifth-place end places him within the firm solely of Rogers and forward of Chuck Finley, whose solely Cy Younger placement was seventh in 1990. When it comes to the Cy Younger Shares vs. Most WAR Shares comparability I used for Hamels — I’m going to hyperlink you to that one as an alternative of spending just a few hundred phrases re-explaining it — his ratio of 0.04 for the previous (even much less Cy Younger help than Hamels acquired) to 0.2 for the latter (little presence among the many league leaders in WAR, extra on which under) isn’t significantly out of steadiness.

Buehrle’s 5 All-Star appearances and 4 Gold Gloves makes for a decent assortment of honors, however modest by Corridor requirements. Gold Gloves shouldn’t get a pitcher into Cooperstown, anyway (although it appears to have labored for 16-time winner Jim Kaat); no matter fielding prowess they purportedly signify is already included right into a pitcher’s run prevention numbers. By way of the Invoice James Corridor of Fame Monitor, which provides credit score for issues that are likely to sway voters similar to awards, league leads, postseason efficiency — not {that a} 2–1 report with a 4.11 ERA is way assist — and so forth, he scores simply 52, properly in need of a possible Corridor of Famer, and under even Hamels (57) and Hernández (67), two pitchers who fell in need of 200 wins.

As for the proper recreation and no-hitter, they’re implausible accomplishments, however by themselves, they’re not indicative of Corridor-worthiness. Of the 22 pitchers to throw an ideal recreation since 1901, solely seven are enshrined, together with solely two of the final 15; an ideal recreation wasn’t sufficient to get long-lasting lefties Rogers or David Wells there, both. Likewise in relation to pitchers with a number of no-hitters; Halladay and Randy Johnson are in, however there are loads who aren’t, from Johnny Vander Meer to Hideo Nomo and Tim Lincecum, the 2 most up-to-date ones to be rejected by Corridor voters.

The superior stats don’t make any stronger a case for Buehrle, who ranked amongst his league’s prime 10 in WAR six occasions however within the prime 5 simply twice, and by no means greater than third. He topped 5.0 WAR simply 4 occasions, with a excessive of 6.1. His 59.0 profession WAR is tied with Hamels, Eddie Cicotte, City Shocker, and Corridor of Famer Joe McGinnity for 69th amongst beginning pitchers, 13.9 under the usual and forward of simply 20 of the 67 non-Negro Leagues enshrinees, solely six of whom had been elected by the BBWAA. 4 of these had been elected regardless of brief careers (Dizzy Dean, Catfish Hunter, Sandy Koufax, and Bob Lemon) however had different issues going for them, together with stellar postseason work and higher Corridor of Fame Monitor scores. So did the longer-lasting Whitey Ford (whose bWAR is curiously low) and Herb Pennock.

A number of years in the past, I launched S-JAWS, a variant of my metric that I designed to scale back the skewing brought on by the affect of Nineteenth-century and Deadball-era pitchers, a few of whom topped 400, 500, and even 600 innings in a season on a number of events, typically underneath way more pitcher-friendly situations than hurlers of immediately get pleasure from. The best way I’ve carried out that is by prorating the peak-component credit score for any heavy-workload season to a most of 250 innings, which finally ends up giving a lift to more moderen pitchers by suppressing the peak-score affect of the huge seasons by these historical hurlers. Like Pettitte, Buehrle by no means reached 250 innings, so his precise peak rating of 35.8 stays unchanged, however his rating amongst all starters has jumped from 151st (forward of simply 9 enshrinees, together with the BBWAA-elected Hunter, Ford, and Sutton) to 98th (forward of twenty-two enshrinees).

That adjusted peak rating remains to be 4.9 WAR under the usual, although, and Buehrle’s 47.4 S-JAWS (unchanged from his JAWS) is 9.4 factors under the usual; the latter ranks 79th, forward of 19 non-Negro Leagues Corridor of Famers together with the BBWAA-elected Ford, Koufax, Dean, Lemon, Pennock, and Hunter. All of these pitchers even have a variety of different issues going for his or her Corridor instances; all however Pennock have Corridor of Fame Monitor scores of 112 or greater, greater than double Buehrle’s 52. Even Pettitte, whose 47.2 S-JAWS is a whisker under Buehrle’s, has a 128 Monitor rating thanks partly to his postseason accomplishments. Buehrle simply doesn’t belong on this firm.

Repeating a variation of the desk I’ve run in my different beginning pitchers profiles for this poll, listed below are the percentile rankings in adjusted peak rating and JAWS for these starters, in addition to varied non-candidates, together with 2025 inductee Sabathia.

Sabathia’s adjusted peak rating is true on the median, and his S-JAWS within the thirty ninth percentile. Apart from the still-active Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and the now-retired Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw — all of whom rank among the many prime 27 in S-JAWS — it’s anybody’s guess as as to if we’ll see anybody on the BBWAA poll that prime once more. I’ve included Johan Santana right here, a two-time Cy Younger winner who went one-and-done on the 2018 poll and received’t be eligible once more till the 2029 Modern Baseball Period Committee one (if the format stays unchanged); you possibly can see that not solely does he have the perfect peak of any of those pitchers, however even with far fewer innings, his S-JAWS is superior to these of this poll’s 4 starters. I threw in Adam Wainwright, the newest pitcher to achieve 200 wins, who together with Greinke will debut on the 2029 poll; Lester, who additionally has 200 wins however ranks barely under Wainwright in S-JAWS, hits the poll subsequent yr. What’s fascinating about Buehrle on this context is that his adjusted peak rating, which is roughly equidistant between Hamels (37.4) and Pettitte (34.1), is rather a lot nearer to the previous by way of the percentiles.

Is that sufficient to offset Pettitte’s benefit in relation to postseason résumés, to the purpose that I ought to vote for (or not vote for) each? I’ve been turning this query over in my thoughts for weeks already, and I nonetheless haven’t found out the place I’ll land.

It could be inaccurate to say that there aren’t any pitchers with S-JAWS much like or decrease than Buehrle within the Corridor, however the ones who’re there have been both distinctive in methods not captured by WAR, or had been small-committee selections that haven’t aged significantly properly. Even given the dearth of latest starters within the Corridor, I’m nonetheless wavering on Buehrle. It seems he’ll stick across the poll, and whereas I don’t assume he’ll get a lot nearer to Cooperstown than he’s now, he’ll be fondly remembered in Chicago and past.