Matrix Reloaded: December 5, 2025

Pleased Friday, and welcome to this offseason’s first installment of the Matrix Reloaded column. There has already been loads of exercise forward of the 2025 Winter Conferences, which kick off this Sunday in sunny (properly perhaps, I haven’t really checked the climate but, and in addition it doesn’t matter as a result of I gained’t be going exterior) Orlando, Florida. Since that is my first roundup of the winter, let’s begin with a refresher on how the Matrix works.

My valuable, color-coded spreadsheet has loads of tabs in your perusal, however my bread and butter is the principle FA Matrix tab, which features a self-explanatory abstract of signings on the high and a considerably much less self-explanatory color-coded abstract of rumors regarding unsigned gamers additional down. The FA Legend tab proper subsequent door might be useful in decoding it, however right here I’ll be aware that what I classify as a rumor is pretty subjective, because the strains between issues like “serious about,” “kicking the tires,” “have appeared into,” and “believed to be serious about” are fairly blurry. All rumors are linked to every coloured cell, and I encourage studying them for additional context past how I’ve bucketed them into teams.

With all that out of the way in which, let’s get into the offers that truly have been accomplished within the final week or so. For bigger strikes, I’ll be hitting on three key factors: how the deal impacts the signing group; the way it impacts different groups; and the way it impacts comparable gamers. For smaller offers, I’ll be extra rapid-fire and speak solely in regards to the signing group; different groups aren’t going to react too strongly to a $2 million bench participant inking a brand new deal.

Lastly, I at all times encourage dialogue and disagreement right here, as a result of whereas this text is my area to opine, the feedback are yours! I’ll weigh in as wanted, as maintaining my mouth shut isn’t my sturdy go well with.

Vital Signings

Blue Jays Signal Dylan Stop for Seven Years, $210 Million (Approx. $189 Million Current Worth) and Cody Ponce for Three Years, $30 Million

Impact on the Blue Jays

Whether or not or not Stop is an ace has been an enormous subject of debate ever because the signing broke, particularly contemplating the sticker value; as you possibly can see on the Whole Spending Projection tab of the Matrix, the median contract prediction for Stop was six years and $168 million. However whether or not or not he’s an ace is immaterial contemplating that (a) no one may even agree on what the definition of an ace is, and (b) the Jays are actually paying him like one thing approaching an ace. They’ve evened that out by signing Ponce — who unequivocally pitched like an ace within the KBO — to a contract that could possibly be a complete cut price.

Including arguably one of the best free agent beginning pitcher and essentially the most highly-regarded American who pitched in Asia this 12 months makes Toronto’s rotation its best energy at this juncture, with Stop and Ponce becoming a member of Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos in a gaggle that doesn’t simply look settled, however overflowing. However that doesn’t essentially imply that the Jays will look to maneuver a starter this winter. Pitchers get damage, and Bieber and Yesavage may every have some limitations, with the previous in his first full season coming off Tommy John surgical procedure and the latter having solely thrown 41.2 innings within the majors, together with the postseason.

Impact on Different Groups

There wasn’t a complete lot of pre-signing buzz about who else was in on Stop particularly, however we do know that there are many different golf equipment in search of top-of-the-rotation sort starters. Orioles baseball ops head Mike Elias has made clear on quite a few events that he’s on the hunt for a front-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish for what could possibly be a formidable entrance three. Elsewhere, the Cubs and Mets are among the many groups which were linked to the highest remaining pitchers in the marketplace, and from my vantage level, the Astros have an apparent want for a top-end starter to hitch Hunter Brown, nevertheless it’s unclear if they’ve room within the finances.

As for Ponce, he was one thing of a one-of-one on this market, with extraordinarily excessive upside out there for back-of-the-rotation costs. There isn’t an actual pivot from him, however groups would possibly look into different ex-major leaguers like Foster Griffin and Jon Duplantier, each of whom discovered success abroad and could possibly be signed for a relative pittance.

Impact on Related Gamers

That is the place the present-value calculation of round $189 million for Stop comes into play. Sure, Stop (and the IRS, and the Canadian Income Company, and his brokers) will in the end get $210 million from this, however the approximate quantity is what different free brokers and groups might be taking a look at. With that determine in thoughts, this isn’t as surprising a deal for Stop because it seems to be on the floor when contemplating the aforementioned median prediction, and as such, this will solely modestly enhance the costs for Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Tatsuya Imai, et al.

White Sox Signal Anthony Kay for Two Years, $12 Million

Impact on the White Sox

The South Siders entered the offseason with only one rotation spot crammed: Rule 5 breakout and All-Star Shane Smith. Kay provides supervisor Will Venable and new pitching coach Zach Bove their second identify to put in writing in pen on the depth chart after Kay earned himself a significant league deal coming off a glowing season for Yokohama in NPB. The southpaw’s strikeout numbers nonetheless don’t soar off the web page, however he received a ton of groundballs, so he’ll double as a pleasant take a look at for younger infielders Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth.

Impact on Different Groups

It’s not identified who else was serious about Kay earlier than he signed with the White Sox, however much like Ponce, he’s received an actual probability to show he’s an absolute cut price. If he had proven something near his NPB efficiency in his earlier MLB stint, he’d in fact be incomes fairly a bit extra money for 2026 and past.

Impact on Related Gamers

As talked about within the Ponce part, there are nonetheless a few potential MLB retreads on the market in Foster Griffin and Jon Duplantier. Neither had fairly as a lot buzz as Kay and particularly not Ponce, however a two-year deal at $4 million or $5 million per 12 months doesn’t appear utterly out of attain contemplating what Ponce and Kay got here off the board for.

Rays Signal Cedric Mullins for One 12 months, $7 Million and Jake Fraley for One 12 months, $3 Million

Impact on the Rays

Tampa shortly moved to re-sign Fraley after they non-tendered him; they could have simply run out of time to come back to a deal earlier than the tender deadline. MLB Commerce Rumors projected he’d earn $3.6 million via arbitration.

That made the choice to signal Mullins only a few days later stunning to me, because the Rays now have a glut of lefty outfielders in Mullins, Fraley, Josh Lowe, and Chandler Simpson, plus the switch-hitting Jake Mangum. Mullins is prone to be the beginning middle fielder, not less than towards righties, and Lowe ought to get the lion’s share of the time in proper regardless of his below-replacement, injury-riddled 2025. That leaves everybody else preventing for time in left and towards lefties (Mangum particularly, together with righty Jonny DeLuca) — not less than for now. That is the Rays we’re speaking about right here, so we are able to’t low cost their willingness to commerce anybody.

Impact on Different Groups

It’s at all times nice for the construction of this roundup when Ken Rosenthal drops one other group that was serious about Mullins the morning after the signing broke. The Marlins, just like the Rays, have lefty outfielders aplenty, so their curiosity in Mullins additionally got here as one thing of a shock. However with Griffin Conine set to get reps at first base in spring coaching, they’d room to suit Mullins in. In the event that they aren’t wedded to the thought of a lefty swinger and are prepared to offer out a multi-year deal, Harrison Bader can be a terrific slot in Miami’s spacious outfield.

Impact on Related Gamers

There’s not anybody notably akin to Mullins nonetheless in the marketplace. Bader appears certain to get not less than twice as a few years and not less than 3 times as a lot cash, and Mike Yastrzemski has been higher and extra constant than Mullins in recent times however isn’t seen as a starting-caliber middle fielder; he’s extra of a nook man who can fill in up the center if wanted. However Mullins going to a non-obvious group suggestions the supply-and-demand scale extra in favor of the still-unsigned outfielders.

Prime-Finish Relievers

On this part, I’ll undergo every of the notable reliever signings, solely trying on the impact on the signing group, after which zoom out to the influence on the league and different relievers.

Mets Signal Devin Williams for Three Years, $51 Million (Approx. $45 Million Current Worth)

Impact on the Mets

Within the very short-term, the impact is apparent: The Mets received a legitimately nice nearer at a cut price value, one so cheap for a pitcher of Williams’ caliber that I’m frankly undecided why this deal received carried out this early, particularly because it doesn’t include any decide outs. In the long term (the offseason as a complete), the Mets actually, really need you to know that it means nothing relating to their need to deliver again Edwin Díaz. (I selected Puma’s put up as a result of he was the primary Mets author I considered, not as a result of he was really first to report. There have been no fewer than a half-dozen reporters sharing that very same piece of knowledge inside 5 minutes of one another.)

That mentioned, it provides the Mets a very good little bit of leverage towards Díaz: We don’t want you that badly, as a result of now we have now Devin Williams. Williams-to-Díaz can be a tantalizing eighth/ninth inning combo, however having Williams affords the Mets the posh of focusing on completely different bullpen items now that they’ve a Confirmed Nearer.

Orioles Signal Ryan Helsley for Two Years, $28 Million

Impact on the Orioles

One thing just like the Orioles’ first 12 priorities this offseason had been (and are) pitching, so in fact their first large transfer was to maneuver starter Grayson Rodriguez for a rental left fielder in Taylor Ward. However they received again to what they actually wanted by inking Helsley, who will function Baltimore’s nearer with Félix Bautista on the shelf for many or all of 2026. Helsley will be a part of Andrew Kittredge behind the Orioles bullpen, however past which can be a bunch of men with out observe information, or who put up poor showings this 12 months, or each. There’s loads of room on each the roster and Baltimore’s payroll so as to add additional, and it’s additionally attainable that including a few starters may push Tyler Wells to the ‘pen, the place he has succeeded previously.

Reds Signal Emilio Pagán for Two Years, $20 Million

Impact on the Reds

The Reds are taking the “if it ain’t broke, don’t repair it” strategy to their vacant nearer position, bringing Pagán again on a wholesome deal that additionally permits him to decide out after 12 months one. (The median prediction for him was a repeat of his two-year, $16 million deal, so he did properly for himself.) Pagán provides the Reds a really nice-looking, if unheralded, again 4 of the bullpen, as he joins Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft, and Connor Phillips. Sam Moll struggled this 12 months and is the one lefty reliever on the 40-man, in order that’s an apparent want with Brent Suter hitting free company.

Cubs Signal Phil Maton for Two Years, $14.5 Million

Impact on the Cubs

The bullpen was a urgent matter for the Cubs coming into the offseason. Andrew Kittredge was shipped off to the Orioles earlier than his possibility choice was due, and key contributors Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and Drew Pomeranz entered free company, together with filler arms Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, and Aaron Civale. Proper now, Maton strains as much as be the highest setup man behind the flame throwing Daniel Palencia, however the veteran righty probably gained’t be the final bullpen addition the Cubs make, and won’t even the most costly one. On the Matrix, they’ve been linked to Pete Fairbanks, who would most likely push Palencia into extra of a fireman position.

Impact of the Greater Reliever Signings on Different Groups

Each offseason, greater than half the league is in on relievers, and this 12 months may be much more excessive, with beforehand extra dormant groups just like the Marlins and Tigers on the Matrix with connections to among the high bullpen arms in the marketplace. Even with Williams, Helsley, and Pagán off the board and anticipated as of now to function closers, there are many high-leverage relievers for groups to type via.

Impact of the Greater Reliever Signings on Related Gamers

To wit, there are nonetheless a handful of free agent relievers who recorded 20-plus saves this previous season: Robert Suarez (40), Kenley Jansen (29), Edwin Díaz (28), and Kyle Finnegan (24). So if you happen to’re a group in search of a Man Who’s Been There, there are many choices.

Past the closers, Tyler Rogers, Shawn Armstrong, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Sean Newcomb, Justin Wilson, Tyler Alexander, and Hoby Milner had been all price not less than 1 WAR as relievers this 12 months, and whereas they’re not all practical high-leverage choices, they proved their price in a myriad of roles. With bullpens beneath the microscope always and an enormous group of golf equipment seeking to enhance, the brokers of the relievers nonetheless out there have good, ahem, leverage as they negotiate offers.

Fast-Hearth One-12 months Offers

Dodgers Signal Miguel Rojas for $5.5 Million

The World Sequence hero is again for one final go-round, rejoining the Dodgers for his closing season earlier than retiring and becoming a member of the membership’s participant improvement employees. Just like this 12 months, he’ll function a bench bat/defensive alternative and get loads of taking part in time towards lefties, barring different strikes.

Diamondbacks Signal James McCann for $2.75 Million

McCann had a mini-resurgence in 42 video games with the Diamondbacks this 12 months, posting his first above-average wRC+ since 2020. He’ll return to again up Gabriel Moreno and push Adrian Del Castillo to a DH/third catcher position, if not again to the minors.

Astros Signal Ryan Weiss for $2.6 Million

Weiss isn’t any Cody Ponce, however he did turn out to be the primary American to signal a significant league deal after pitching in Korea with out prior MLB expertise since Merrill Kelly, who began the pattern of career-rebuilding within the KBO. Weiss is a low-risk possibility for the Astros, who clearly want pitching. Hunter Brown is the one true lock for the rotation, with Weiss, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Jason Alexander, Spencer Arrighetti, Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, and Colton Gordon amongst these competing for the again 4 spots.

Angels Signal Alek Manoah for $1.95 Million

I hope at some point to like anybody as a lot because the Angels love including former first rounders to their roster. Manoah was a multitude in 2023, was barely higher however nonetheless solely respectable earlier than getting damage in 2024, and didn’t precisely encourage a lot confidence within the minors upon his return in 2025 earlier than being waived by the Blue Jays and non-tendered by the Braves. It’s a superbly tremendous dart-throw since Manoah will be optioned to the minors, but when the Angels have their sights set on him making 30 good-enough begins in 2026, I’ve a bridge to promote them.

Giants Signal Sam Hentges for $1.4 Million

Hentges misplaced a couple of season-and-a-half to shoulder and knee accidents, slicing brief a terrific run as a leverage arm for the Guardians. From 2022 to 2024, the towering lefty put up a 2.93 ERA and a pair of.66 FIP in 138 innings, and if the Giants can get one thing even vaguely paying homage to that out of him, $1.4 million is a cut price. He’s beneath membership management by way of arbitration for 2027 too.

Guardians Signal Connor Brogdon for $900,000

Brogdon’s out of choices and received a completely assured deal, however for a significant league group, $900,000 is principally nothing. The Guardians will see what they will get out of him in spring coaching earlier than committing to him being of their Opening Day bullpen. Like Hentges, he wouldn’t hit six years of service time till the conclusion of the 2027 season.