It’s been a busy December at no cost agent relievers. Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams, two of probably the most attention-grabbing names available on the market, every signed with new golf equipment, and so they every bought multi-year ensures regardless of shaky 2025 outcomes. The subsequent shoe to drop wasn’t fairly as heralded of an choice, however he too bought a number of years and beat market consensus. The signing in query: Emilio Pagán and the Reds agreed to a two-year, $20 million deal, with an decide out after the primary 12 months.
Pagán was a much more efficient reliever in 2025 than both of the 2 splashier names forward of him. He had top-of-the-line seasons of his profession at age 34, in reality: 68 2/3 innings pitched, a 2.88 ERA and three.72 FIP in hitter-friendly Cincinnati, and 32 saves in his first full-time closing job since 2019. He bounced again from an injury-interrupted 2024 with higher fastball velocity and higher pitch form throughout the board, and bought richly rewarded for it with a 30% strikeout fee. Is he homer-prone? You guess, because of a 0.51 GB/FB ratio. However a .200 BABIP and a stable HR/FB% (10.8%) meant that he truly allowed fewer homers per 9 innings (1.31) than his profession mark (1.51), and never by a small quantity, regardless of pitching in a launching pad.
When issues are going effectively for him, Pagán makes everybody suppose they will hit a house run, then pulls the rug out. He runs his four-seamer excessive and spots a heavy splitter off of it, a traditional fly ball pitcher combine. It’s a kind of methods that appears terrible when it isn’t working, and but appears to come back by more often than not anyway. Extra particularly, Pagán went by a three-year stretch of horrible type from 2020-2022, posting a 4.61 ERA and 4.71 FIP. Then he broke out in 2023 and has been stable since. The weirdest a part of all of it? His stuff and command metrics barely budged between these two wildly completely different stretches.
Reversals like that go a good distance towards explaining why reliever efficiency is so troublesome to foretell. When Pagán has it, he’s a worthy late-inning reliever. His ERA- was fortieth amongst relievers final 12 months, and it’s sixtieth over the previous three years, even along with his ineffective 2024 within the combine. He’s pitched such as you’d count on a more in-depth or setup man to, in different phrases. His FIP tells a broadly comparable story, and I’m keen to consider that pitchers along with his excessive tendencies outperform their FIP in the long term. In case you get good Pagán, he’s a really helpful bullpen piece, the type any workforce would like to have within the bullpen and plenty of fringe contenders would like to have as a more in-depth.
That’s the calculus from the Reds’ perspective. They’ve managed their payroll tightly within the early years of Elly De La Cruz’s workforce management window, hovering across the $100 million mark with wiggle room in both course. With that finances constraint in thoughts, the highest 5 or so relievers on this free company class have been presumably off the board. The subsequent tier down is a combination of attention-grabbing pop-up arms, growing older closers, and reclamation tasks. Would you moderately have Kenley Jansen or Pagán? Seranthony Domínguez? Kyle Finnegan? Phil Maton? Perhaps Drew Pomeranz? I feel I’d take Pagán or Jansen over the sphere – I ranked them that approach in my High 50 Free Brokers listing – and as an added bonus, he’s already aware of Cincinnati. I’d take Raisel Iglesias over him – rankings, once more – however he signed for one 12 months and $16 million, in all probability outdoors of this workforce’s worth vary. The Reds in all probability might’ve gotten some stable lefty specialists for the $10 million or so annual wage that they gave Pagán, however that’s not what they have been available in the market for this winter. They wanted a bankable nearer, and within the aisle they have been buying in, there weren’t that many choices.
This workforce actually does want reduction arms. The Reds didn’t need to cowl many bullpen innings in 2025, however even then they struggled to piece all of it collectively. Pagán, Tony Santillan, and Graham Ashcraft shaped an efficient three-headed monster on the high, however the remainder of the pen was ineffective even in restricted time. With a bandbox for a house stadium, it’s exhausting to count on a equally restricted want for reduction pitching in 2026. This was the trail of least resistance for a workforce that basically does must do one thing to problem for the NL Central title in 2026 and construct on its stunning 2025 Wild Card berth.
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Now, the dangers? They’re actual. It was solely a 12 months in the past, after his down 2024 efficiency, that Cincinnati followers have been lamenting Pagán’s determination to choose up his participant choice for 2025. Extra innings and a .200 BABIP turned that frown the wrong way up, however it’s not prefer it’s inconceivable to think about an ineffective Pagán. Would you be shocked if he had an uneven, homer-prone 55 innings in 2026 after which picked up his choice? I actually wouldn’t be. We simply noticed that!
That leaves me within the scenario of liking this deal extra for Pagán than for the Reds, and but I’d make this supply if I have been of their footwear anyway. Determining which relievers shall be good in a 12 months’s time is extremely troublesome. If it have been straightforward to resolve, the Dodgers wouldn’t have signed Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen final winter after which spent this complete October hiding them. Regardless of that issue, relievers are integral to a contending membership. In case you aren’t successful the shut video games, it’s exhausting to make the playoffs. The Reds possible wouldn’t have finished that final 12 months if not for Pagán.
With that backdrop, what have been the Reds presupposed to do? Signal a unique, comparable man for barely much less? Signal two reclamation tasks on one-year, $5 million offers? It’s not even just like the second 12 months is that a lot of a catastrophe; in a 12 months’s time, they’re going to be contending with a core constructed round De La Cruz and on the lookout for relievers, and I don’t suppose the market fee is more likely to plummet within the meantime or something. Certain, you may get dangerous Pagán in 2026 after which have him decide in, however the inherent volatility of relievers implies that even that isn’t a tragedy. It labored out final time!
There’s some probability that Cincinnati might have waited longer, negotiated extra stingily, and reached a barely extra team-friendly take care of him. Up to now, Pagán is the early signing whose market has most outstripped my projections. However who cares? What have been the Reds going to do, save one million {dollars} or two? From their perspective, the dangers have been higher, as a result of in the event that they dragged their ft in negotiating with Pagán and he signed elsewhere, they’d abruptly be sifting by a wide range of relievers they’re presumably much less fascinated about with a powerful must discover a deal. I’d choose to overpay barely for a man I’m comfy with than hunt for unknown bargains to fill an important position, and it appears the Cincinnati entrance workplace thinks equally.
I’m not satisfied that it is a nice long-term approach to run a workforce. It actually wouldn’t be my choice in a vacuum; I’m a Rays/Dodgers/Brewers-style bullpen man at coronary heart. I really like reclamation tasks and throwing lots of relievers on the wall to see what sticks. I really like betting on guys with elite stuff and seeing if they will determine throw strikes, or betting on guys with elite command and seeing if they will determine throw tougher.
I’m additionally not operating the Reds, looking at two superstars in De La Cruz and Hunter Greene and attempting to make the playoffs once more after a miracle run. Certain, it will be nice to construct an unbelievable pitching improvement system from the bottom up. But it surely’s December, and the season begins in 4 months, and that’s not sufficient time to overtake a whole group, not even shut. The Reds wanted a reliever. They bought a man they’re comfy with at a fee that received’t power them to chop again elsewhere. Perhaps it’s a slight overpay, and possibly he’s extra unstable than his 2025 outcomes would recommend, however for the Reds? He’s simply what they wanted.