2026 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins

For the twenty second consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction, in addition to MLB’s glossary entry. The staff order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent staff up is the Miami Marlins.

Batters

Whereas the Marlins had been anticipated to wish to combat exhausting to get out of the NL East basement in 2025, the staff was surprisingly stable from midseason on, and although they by no means reached .500, they not less than flirted with it because of a profitable report within the second half.

A whole lot of the pleased surprises in Miami got here from the beginning lineup. Whereas a staff wRC+ of 96, good for twenty first within the majors, doesn’t precisely event a “Mission Achieved” banner, each marks had been a notable enchancment on the staff’s latest historical past. Certainly, a 96 wRC+ represents the staff’s finest outcome since 2017, that yr being one among solely two seasons by which the Marlins handed the century mark. Whereas there’s no direct comparability to the staff’s terrific Marcell Ozuna/Christian Yelich/Giancarlo Stanton outfield of that period, there’s truly some good younger offensive expertise on the staff. And importantly for Miami, it’s usually cheap.

Wanting on the projections, ZiPS has the Marlins, if not turning into a very good offense, not less than sustaining that sheen of relative competence. The up-the-middle positions are particularly nicely stuffed, with a number of choices behind the plate, Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards on the infield, and Jakob Marsee coming off a superb debut. The pc does undertaking some regression from Marsee, as his minor league efficiency didn’t match his efficiency within the majors. However even together with his numbers dropping a bit, he nonetheless tasks to be an actual plus because the full-time beginning heart fielder. Elsewhere on the infield, ZiPS thinks Connor Norby is sufficient, if unexciting.

Kyle Stowers had his season lower quick because of an indirect harm, however 2025 was a roaring success for him, as he hit .288/.368/.544 with 25 homers, and legitimately earned his All-Star look. Given his historical past, ZiPS, like Steamer, isn’t able to say he’s established his gorgeous 2025 as his anticipated baseline, however his breakout was enough such that he appears to be like like he can not less than hit within the majors the way in which a nook outfielder ought to.

What’s preserving the offense from taking that subsequent step is the shortage of accompanying massive bats on the different offense-heavy positions. First base and proper discipline appear like strict stopgap preparations till the Marlins discover one thing higher. Agustín Ramírez could find yourself a full-time DH provided that he’s being pushed by Joe Mack, a superior defensive catcher, however he nonetheless hasn’t proven that he has a DH-worthy stick. ZiPS isn’t going all-in on Heriberto Hernández, both; he solely hit .220/.319/.454 within the minors this yr, in spite of everything.

ZiPS doesn’t assume the Marlins have good choices to fill these positions from inside. It sees the staff’s place participant prospects as being a very good step behind the pitchers, and it’s not optimistic about higher minors hitters reminiscent of Kemp Alderman or Deyvison De Los Santos. For many organizations, this could be a lure for the staff so as to add a giant title free agent and supply a middle-of-the-order accompaniment to Stowers, however that is not often Miami’s method. In consequence, it’s unclear whether or not this lineup will ever truly get to the subsequent degree earlier than the principals method free company and the seemingly inevitable trades begin.

Pitchers

Sandy Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgical procedure wasn’t the smoothest, and although his velocity was largely again, he was much more crushable than he was at his 2022-2023 finest. He did look much more snug within the second half, with an ERA of three.33 in comparison with his 7.22 mark within the first half, and significantly improved management. ZiPS tasks a sunnier 2026, although one that appears extra like that of a no. 2 starter relatively than an ace. Alcantara remained on the staff regardless of copious commerce rumors this summer time, and there’s nonetheless a very good probability that he’s traded within the very close to future.

Edward Cabrera’s arm slot dropped a bit in 2025 and he began counting on his exhausting sinker extra typically, and ultimately, he had a average breakout season. This one makes me pleased since I really feel like I’d been predicting his breakout for 3 or 4 years now! He’s whittled down the walks to acceptable ranges and prevented severe harm.

Eury Pérez’s return from Tommy John went higher than Alcantara’s, and he usually pitched in addition to anybody may count on, outdoors of a tough run in August. He ended the season on a excessive observe, hanging out 11 doomed Mets in the course of the last weekend. ZiPS is fairly snug with Robby Snelling, Ryan Weathers, and Braxton Garrett. In truth, in the event you go down the depth chart of starters the Marlins will truly use in 2026, Ryan Gusto is the one one projected for an ERA worse than 4.50.

The bullpen tasks to be very common. Ronny Henriquez is the one reliever projected with an ERA nicely wanting 4.00, however only a few of the relievers tasks are objectively horrible. Whereas quick on massive, scary arms, this seems to be an sufficient group that received’t forestall the Marlins from pulling off a Wild Card shock.

Proper now, the Marlins appear like a .500 staff, maybe a skosh higher, until they’re unexpectedly aggressive in free company this winter. So… let’s say a .500 staff, maybe a skosh higher.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate staff projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2026 because of harm, and gamers who had been launched in 2025. So sure, in the event you see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to type a Ambient Math-Rock Journey-Hop Yacht Steel band that solely performs in deserted malls, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected staff WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a staff will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our good friend and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This final is, nonetheless, not an precise requirement.