Up and in, low and away. That’s the way you assault hitters. That’s at all times been the way you assault hitters. There are exceptions, after all. Some hitters battle with low-inside pitches, so that they see extra of them. Some hitters are so feeble that pitchers simply pump fastballs down the center and dare them to do their worst. Some pitchers simply throw their finest pitch and don’t hassle worrying concerning the hitter in any respect. However more often than not, it’s up and in, low and away. Ben Clemens wrote a few model of this yesterday, in a chunk that centered on the information behind why pitchers throw inside fastballs. And the hardest inside fastballs to hit are these thrown up and in.
Pitchers have been throwing onerous stuff up and in for so long as they’ve been throwing onerous stuff, however Statcast’s new bat monitoring information allowed us a brand new peek at why that’s such a profitable sport plan. The warmth map for bat pace under is additional pink as a result of it belongs to Aaron Choose, however insofar because the least pink spot is the high-inside strike, it’d as properly belong to any hitter.
It’s more durable to get your bat round up there. It requires a stiffer, extra rotational (versus linear) swing. You may’t get your arms prolonged. You may’t drop your bat head on the ball. Bust any individual up and in with one thing onerous, and so they’ll have a troublesome time catching as much as it; now confirmed by science.
As a result of we aren’t Ben Clemens, we’re going to concentrate on down and away as we speak, and we’re going to concentrate on batters. As you’ll be able to see from Choose’s warmth map, bat pace tends to be slower down there too. We’re not simply speaking about getting your arms prolonged. It’s important to modify your swing to succeed in pitches that distant, bending and reaching, slowing down your bat as a result of the optimum contact level is deeper. If there’s one factor we’ve realized from bat monitoring information, it’s that these sorts of changes make you hemorrhage bat pace. Low and away can also be the place trickier pitches like offspeed and breaking balls have a tendency to finish up. No person is nice towards these pitches, and I do imply no one.
See the spot within the warmth map that claims 77.0 mph, contained in the strike zone, however on the outer third and within the backside third? Since 2008, 225 left-handed batters and 297 right-handed batters have seen a minimum of 500 pitches in that low-and-outside field. In response to Baseball Savant’s run values, not a kind of gamers has a optimistic run worth towards these pitches. Not one! Each single participant has been under common in that exact field, and that’s not true of any of the opposite 12 containers. The 2 gamers who’ve come closest to breaking even on these low-and-outside strikes are Corridor of Famer David Ortiz, who has been price -0.08 runs per 100 pitches, and future Corridor of Famer Mike Trout, who has been price -0.4. It’s simply not potential to carry out properly towards that pitch (a minimum of not with out eschewing the remainder of the strike zone, however nobody would ever do this), even when you’re actually Mike Trout.
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So we’ve established that the low-outside strike is difficult to hit. It took 500 phrases, however we’re right here now. The warmth map under belongs to James Wooden, and it’s a part of the explanation we’re speaking about pitching individuals low and away. The numbers on this warmth map present run worth per 100 pitches, and so they present why Wooden is the poster boy for issue down and away.
After a season and a half within the majors, Wooden is the proud proprietor of 4.6 WAR, a 125 wRC+, and one of the explosive swings within the sport. That’s wonderful. He’s simply 23 years previous. He seems like he might be nice for a minimum of one other decade. He’s additionally the proprietor of this significantly lopsided warmth map. He’s affected person to a fault, which signifies that he’s wonderful on pitches exterior the strike zone. He’s nice when he can get his lengthy arms prolonged or when he can drop his bat head on the ball. However throw him one thing, something down and away however nonetheless contained in the zone, and he turns right into a (very imposing) pumpkin.
Should you’re a daily FanGraphs reader or only a fan of the Nationals (or Padres), you’ve possible identified the e-book on Wooden since lengthy earlier than he really debuted in Washington. He’s actually large. He hits the ball actually onerous. He hits it on the bottom. He whiffs so much too. Main league pitchers knew the e-book as properly, and so they most positively noticed some earlier model of that warmth map the second the Nationals known as Wooden up in July 2024.
I can say that for sure as a result of regardless that he was only a 21-year-old rookie, 24.2% of the pitches Wooden noticed had been positioned in these three blue containers. Amongst gamers who noticed a minimum of 1,000 pitches, that was the very best charge in baseball (switching the facet of the plate round for right-handers, after all). In 2025, that charge fell to 23.8% and Wooden fell to 3rd place, behind Dansby Swanson (24.5%) and Tommy Pham (24.2%). What these numbers imply is that from the second he debuted, pitchers have identified that the one option to assault Wooden was to remain the hell away from his gigantic bat. Intention for the skin nook, maintain it low, and hope for the perfect.
In a slim sense, that technique has been wildly profitable, as these three blue containers can attest. In 2025, 457 gamers noticed a minimum of 100 pitches inside these containers. Wooden’s 50% swing charge ranked 376th, that means he took far more known as strikes than the common participant. When he did swing, his 28.7% whiff charge was tied for 426th place, that means that he ended up with far more swinging strikes than the common participant. When Wooden put the ball in play, he was extra profitable than the common participant, due to course he was. Despite the fact that that’s the spot the place he has his lowest bat pace, lowest exit velocity, and lowest launch angle, he nonetheless hits the ball so onerous that it might probably’t assist however discover grass. He ran a .418 wOBACON on these pitches. However that’s not sufficient to mitigate all these additional strikes.
In a broader sense, that plan has its limits. Aiming for the nook towards a participant as affected person as Wooden signifies that once you miss, you’ve acquired the next probability of lacking the zone totally, and Wooden is so affected person that he’ll make you pay for it. When you’re behind, you need to hit the guts of the zone. Extra importantly, that is one thing of a desperation transfer. For years now, the pattern throughout the league has been towards throwing the ball proper over the center and trusting your stuff to do the remainder. The worry of grooving a pitch to Wooden is driving pitchers towards an older, much less profitable sport plan. Wooden is unhealthy at dealing with that pitch, however so is each hitter on earth. He’s seeing so many pitches there as a result of towards a hitter like him, all of the choices are suboptimal. Wooden might not get to the following degree as a hitter till he can discover a option to cowl extra of the strike zone, however he’s younger and he’s nonetheless studying. He might properly get there. Within the meantime, he’s nonetheless putting worry into the hearts of pitchers, and so they’re doing their finest to avoid him.