Devin Williams, the lights-out reliever with the M. Evening Shyamalan changeup, has agreed to a three-year take care of the Mets. A two-time All-Star, Williams earned NL Rookie of the 12 months honors in 2020 and scored a down-ballot MVP vote as lately as 2023. Even after a disastrous 2025 season kicked his profession ERA all the best way up from 1.83 to 2.45, he nonetheless has a profession ERA of – you guessed it – 2.45. Right here’s my first piece of research: That’s so good, you guys! Assuming he received’t preserve operating a 55% strand charge from right here on out, the Mets simply signed up for 3 years of probably the greatest relievers in baseball; in the meantime, Williams simply signed up for a fast journey from the Bronx to Flushing, however it’s essential to notice that the journey is all the time going to be longer than Google Maps predicts, as a result of the percentages of really catching an specific 7 prepare reasonably than the native are vanishingly small.
Let’s begin with the phrases of the deal and the credit score for who reported which elements of these phrases, after which we’ll take a nap and carry out some extra gentle evaluation. Cool? Cool.
The deal is for $51 million. That may work out to a tidy $17 million per 12 months, however as a result of $5 million per 12 months might be deferred for 11 to twenty years, the web current worth and the common annual worth for luxurious tax functions drop to a bit below $14.8 million. Additionally, $2 million per 12 months will take the type of a signing bonus. The deal doesn’t embrace a no-trade clause or choices, however it does have a $1 million task bonus in case Williams will get traded. How do we all know all that? We all know as a result of Anthony Franco of MLB Commerce Rumors informed us that Will Sammon of The Athletic broke the information that Williams was signing a three-year deal, Jeff Passan of ESPN broke the information that the greenback worth was above $50 million, Jon Heyman of the New York Put up reported the precise phrases of the deal, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic broke the information concerning the task bonus, and in addition as a result of Jon Becker of our very personal FanGraphs calculated the AAV right down to the cent: $14,792,239.20. See, didn’t all that make you need a nap?
Story strains ought to wake you up, and you may actually take your decide right here. Williams is now the ninth former Brewer David Stearns has reconnected with in New York, based on Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal. He’s additionally the primary reliever for whom Stearns has ever shelled out severe cash. It’s enjoyable that Williams is staying within the new york as a result of, like so many gamers who battle of their first season sporting pinstripes, Yankees followers rapidly determined that he simply couldn’t deal with the outsized expectations and corresponding pressures of enjoying in New York Metropolis. It’s much more enjoyable that Williams was the impetus for the Yankees’ ending their decades-long facial hair coverage, solely to place up the worst season of his profession for them after which decamp to their crosstown rivals. Extra importantly for Mets followers, as quickly because the information of the signing broke, so did experiences that the signing received’t preclude the staff from re-signing Edwin Díaz. Ought to that come to move, the Mets bullpen would boast some of the devastating one-two punches within the recreation.
Let’s analyze all these {dollars}. First, we must always notice that ever astute FanGraphs readers pegged Williams for a median contract of three years and $42 million. Good work, staff. Subsequent, we must always notice that Ben Clemens had Williams at two years and $24 million, whereas MLB Commerce Rumors had him at double that, 4 years and $68 million. That’s fairly a little bit of variability. As Andrew Mearns famous for Baseball Prospectus, Williams didn’t get the megadeals of Díaz and Josh Hader as a result of he entered free company after his age-30 season and since he put up an unpleasant platform 12 months. How ugly was it? How does a 4.79 ERA, a WPA of simply 0.08, and shedding the nearer job twice in a single season sound to you? Right here I’ll quote BP’s Ginny Searle: “You may add up Williams’ ERAs from his last three seasons as a Brewer they usually wouldn’t come to the mark he posted in his single (and certain solely) season in pinstripes.”
Then again, how does a 2.68 FIP and being above the 96th percentile in chase charge, whiff charge, and strikeout charge sound to you? You understand about this dichotomy already. Michael Baumann wrote about it. Ben Clemens and Eric Longenhagen wrote about it. Mario Delgado Genzor wrote about it twice at BP. For that purpose, I received’t dive too deeply into it right here, however the level is that whereas the Mets are spending fairly a bit of cash, they’re nonetheless shopping for fairly low on a very elite reliever coming off a fluky season. Someone was all the time going to pay Williams nearer cash on the belief that one dangerous season didn’t utterly change who he’s as a pitcher. In that sense, it’s a bit stunning that Williams signed so early. It’s not laborious to think about one other staff providing opt-outs, an additional 12 months or two, or a assured nearer function. Sammon reported that 5 different groups have been , together with one that attempted to swoop in with a aggressive supply on Monday evening.
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Time for the baseball evaluation. I discussed strand charge within the first paragraph, however let’s make certain we hammer that time house. Some pitchers actually are worse with runners on base, however strand charge is a basic indicator of dangerous luck. Over the primary six years of his profession, Williams ran a strand charge of 81.8%. In 2025, he was at 55.2%. That’s a drop of 26.6 proportion factors. It’s impossibly giant. Since 2000, we’ve seen 6,897 completely different player-seasons of not less than 60 innings pitched. Williams’ 55.2% mark ranks 6,888th. That’s tenth from the underside. It’s impossibly low. It doesn’t matter what occurs subsequent 12 months, even when Williams is actively dangerous unexpectedly, we must always nonetheless count on his strand charge to leap means, means up (and his ERA to fall).
That’s to not say Williams’ 2025 numbers contained no smoke in any respect. Each his fastball and his changeup misplaced some induced vertical break, and the fastball misplaced some horizontal break too. In different phrases, the fastball was only a bit straighter, and stuff fashions accordingly graded it only a hair worse than that they had in seasons previous. Williams’ arm angle additionally dropped right down to a median of 21 levels, the bottom mark of his profession. That extra horizontal arm angle may render his trademark wild horizontal motion a bit extra predictable for hitters. Lastly, though his fastball velocity has stayed roughly fixed over the previous 4 years – he averaged 94.1 mph in 2022, then 94.2, 94.7, and 94.1 once more – the league’s common fastball velocity hasn’t remained fixed. In 2025, that 94.1-mph mark meant that his fastball was beneath common in velocity for the primary time ever.
All that confirmed up within the numbers. Though they have been improbable, his 34.7% strikeout charge and 40% whiff charge have been his lowest since since his 13-game debut in 2019. The larger downside was what occurred when batters didn’t miss. In 2025, Williams ran the best exit velocity (89.5 mph), hard-hit charge (35.7%), and barrel charge (9.3%) of his profession. In consequence, his .367 xwOBA on balls in play was the best of his profession too. That was the precise league common in 2025.
To be clear, none of this actually wants to vary to ensure that Williams to get again on high. If you happen to can run absurd strikeout numbers whereas giving up league-average contact when batters do put the ball in play, you’re going to be simply tremendous (except you’ve gotten some abysmal luck). Whereas the Mets would love nothing greater than for Williams to show in yet one more season with a sub-2.00 ERA, they’re in all probability not anticipating that both. They’d absolutely accept three years of mere excellence.