Relaxation in peace, beginning pitcher Ryan Helsley (November 23, 2025 — November 29, 2025.) Final Sunday, a trio of staffers at The Athletic reported that the Tigers, amongst different groups, have been curious about changing Helsley right into a starter. Even by the open-minded trendy requirements of reliever-to-starter conversions, this appeared like a stretch. As Michael Baumann famous when he contemplated the likelihood, Helsley’s arsenal, comprised nearly completely of four-seamers and sliders, is about as restricted because it will get, and his excessive over-the-top arm angle leaves little room for projection.
On Saturday afternoon, Helsley’s illustrious beginning profession got here to an in depth. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the Orioles and Helsley had agreed on a two-year, $28 million pact, with an opt-out after the primary 12 months. In keeping with Passan, Baltimore expects Helsley to deal with the nearer job.
Given the Orioles’ aggressive ambitions and their appreciable payroll house, they have been all however a lock to spend just a little money on a backend reliever. President of baseball operations Mike Elias stated as a lot earlier within the offseason, telling reporters that they have been working to amass an “skilled ninth-inning man.” Following a season during which their bullpen delivered a 4.57 ERA, their high inner choices to deal with the late innings have been Keegan Akin and Kade Strowd — high quality pitchers, however not the leverage arms of a staff with division-winning aspirations. After swinging a commerce for setup man Andrew Kittredge in early November, Baltimore landed its “skilled ninth-inning man” in Helsley.
Whether or not he’s up for the duty is an affordable query. After three straight dominant seasons with the Cardinals — book-ended by All-Star choices — Helsley had himself a nightmarish 2025, significantly after St. Louis traded him to the Mets on the deadline; he had a 7.20 ERA and a 5.19 FIP with New York after posting a 3.00 ERA and a 3.55 FIP earlier than the commerce. His 89-mph bullet slider was as efficient as ever, racking up a 41.6% whiff charge and staying off barrels, however the fastball received rocked. In an interview with The Athletic’s Katie Woo just a few days previous to his signing, he gave his concept for why his season went off the rails.
“I felt nice, and the Mets’ fashions confirmed I used to be truly having one of the best stuff of my profession, so it didn’t make sense for me to wrestle as dangerous as I did,” Helsley informed The Athletic. “However I used to be being actually predictable in sure counts. It was nearly a double-confirmation for hitters. They see it with their eyes, and so they additionally had a stat behind it saying I’m extra more likely to throw this pitch in a sure depend. It simply gave them that rather more consolation within the field, and extra conviction.”
When hitters put his fastball in play, they slugged .667. They usually had no points placing it in play. His 17.8% four-seam whiff charge ranked within the twenty sixth percentile of all pitchers with a minimum of 300 fastballs thrown, surrounded by names like Jake Irvin, Miles Mikolas and Bailey Ober. That’s not very best firm.
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Assuming his slider is ok, the advantage of the Helsley deal boils down as to whether his triple-digit fastball remains to be an excellent pitch. The way in which I see it, there are three attainable explanations for its poor efficiency in 2025. The primary is that Helsley was tipping with some form of visible cue. Helsley informed Woo that he believed his hand place “as he was turning into set” revealed whether or not the pitch could be a fastball or a slider.
“It was fairly apparent,” Helsley informed The Athletic. “I’m not the best at (recognizing pitch tipping), and even I might see it (on movie with) the vast majority of the pitches.”
For no matter it’s price, it didn’t look that apparent to me. For these on the general public aspect, pitch-tipping evaluation typically seems like paranoid pattern-matching, like Charlie Day’s Pepe Silvia purple string board. There’s little from the middle area cameras, a minimum of, that makes it clear. Right here’s Helsley’s setup on a fastball that Harrison Bader launched 109 mph to the pull aspect:
And right here is the earlier pitch, a slider. Do you see any distinction within the setup? To me, there’s no there there.
Right here they’re proper subsequent to one another:
(Helsley modified his setup after this recreation for the remainder of the season, bringing his fingers down and holding the ball nearer to his physique. The outcomes weren’t significantly better; as Helsley himself stated in that interview, it’s exhausting to make an in-season adjustment.)
Whereas the bodily tipping proof is ambiguous, the count-level predictability is fairly clear-cut. In a broad sense, Helsley maintained a roughly 50/50 utilization of his slider and fastball, sometimes tossing in a curveball as a wrinkle. However trying on the general utilization patterns belies the predictability of his pitch choice.
In 0-0 counts, Helsley opted for the heater 57% of the time. In deep hitter counts (2-0, 3-1, and 3-0), that leapt to 75%. Heavy fastball utilization in these contexts is considerably excusable, however Helsley’s full depend strategy underlined his reliance on the heater in tight spots. Of the 50 pitches thrown in 3-2 counts, 37 (74%) have been four-seamers. (Maybe one more reason Bader smashed that 3-2 heater into the stratosphere.)
The same story could possibly be informed with the slider. Heavy slider use in two-strike counts is to be anticipated, however even in 1-1 counts, Helsley threw it 72 occasions in 99 alternatives. For a pitcher with basically two pitches, any such predictability is deadly, irrespective of the nastiness of the stuff.
If Helsley’s ineffectiveness comes right down to pitch-tipping and depend points, the Orioles have good cause to be assured in a bounce again. But when his stuff is beginning to decline, they could have an issue on their fingers.
Is there proof that is the case? For those who squint, perhaps. Helsley broke out in 2022 with a superhuman 39.3% strikeout charge whereas tag-teaming the nearer function with Giovanny Gallegos. The breakout was fueled by an enormous velocity bounce — from 2021 to 2022, Helsley’s fastball gained over two ticks, leaping to a median of 99.6 mph. In 2025, that dropped all the way in which right down to… 99.3 mph.
The case for Helsley’s fastball dropping its juice, then, would must be about one thing aside from velocity decline. Right here, there is a little more to latch onto. In that 2022 season, Helsley’s common arm angle on his four-seamer was round 52 levels. By 2025, that had climbed all the way in which to 62 levels with no concurrent enchancment to the pitch’s vertical motion.
A fastball’s effectiveness might be largely defined by its vertical motion relative to its launch level; extra motion from a decrease launch or decrease arm angle makes it more durable for a hitter to select up. As a result of the wonderful induced vertical break (18 inches) on Helsley’s fastball now comes from a extra “vertical” arm angle, it doesn’t have the identical misleading qualities. As soon as close to the highest of the dimensions by way of Alex Chamberlain’s dynamic useless zone measurements, his fastball has declined to merely “excellent.” If Helsley must preserve mountain climbing his arm angle up every year to take care of the identical degree of induced vertical break, that might begin to seem like a priority.
Because it stands, this appears to be extra of a minor concern than a purple flag. The stuff fashions on FanGraphs — Stuff+ and PitchingBot — each nonetheless contemplate Helsley’s fastball to be a effectively above-average pitch, even when they agree that the standard has declined barely from 2022 or 2023. He’s sitting 99 mph, in any case — even with poor form, a four-seamer with that velocity ought to nonetheless play.
Total, I’m inclined to say that each side discovered an excellent deal right here. The reliever market is the primary of any place group to take form on this early offseason, with each Phil Maton and Raisel Iglesias inking offers previous to Helsley. Iglesias is older, however obtained $16 million for a single 12 months’s work; Maton, a strong center reliever, received two years and $14.5 million. If that is the vary for the second-tier relievers, and if the three high guys — Edwin Díaz, Devin Williams, and Robert Suarez — are in line for an excellent chunk extra, Helsley’s signing begins to look fairly affordable for the Orioles, particularly as a result of he is just one 12 months faraway from being in that elite group. For Helsley, it’s one other shot at ninth-inning responsibility, with an opportunity to hit the market once more subsequent offseason, assuming all goes effectively.
From 2022-2024, Helsley ranked fourth amongst all relievers in FIP. His stuff is basically the identical because it was throughout that run. Assuming he kinds out the tipping points and will get rather less predictable in sure depend contexts, the Orioles simply signed a high-end nearer at an eminently affordable worth – even when it solely proves to be for one 12 months.