The range was already scorching the week earlier than Thanksgiving. However on Wednesday night, the Toronto Blue Jays threw some logs on the fireplace and aimed a leaf blower on the rattling factor, and now the proverbial range is scorching sufficient to soften soda cans into aluminum ingots.
Dylan Stop has signed with the reigning AL champions, and for what they supplied him — $210 million over seven years — you’d be packing your luggage for Canada, too. Seems like somebody can shell out for the flamboyant cranberry sauce this Thanksgiving.
Final time the Blue Jays had been within the information, they had been struggling an excruciating World Sequence loss and going through down the upcoming departure of their second-best (relying on who you ask?) place participant, Bo Bichette. The Jays aren’t precisely the Mets or Dodgers, however they’re a big-market membership that’s proven a reasonably sturdy organizational dedication to fielding a aggressive crew over the previous decade.
Nonetheless, we’ve seen too many contenders endure a near-miss and retreat again into mid-payroll obscurity. It was not a provided that Toronto would rearm and head again into the thick finish of the motion.
So from that perspective, it’s good to see the Jays make such an aggressive transfer for a participant on the prime of the market. Stop, 29, was the no. 1 pitcher on our Prime 50 Free Brokers record, and our no. 3 free agent total.
Pitching is like music, the complicated interaction of distinct devices during which nothing is significant with out context. There are pitchers who assemble exacting symphonies, and others who pitch with nice rhythm and bitter horn sections. Stop is like Nirvana, a three-piece rock band whose music is straightforward however memorable, loud, and fuzzy.
You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member
It seems to be such as you aren’t but a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, simply dissatisfied.
We get it. You wish to learn this text. However earlier than we allow you to get again to it, we would wish to level out a couple of of the nice the explanation why it’s best to turn into a Member.
1. Advert Free viewing! We cannot bug you with this advert, or every other.
2. Limitless articles! Non-Members solely get to learn 10 free articles a month. Members by no means get minimize off.
3. Darkish mode and Traditional mode!
4. Customized participant web page dashboards! Select the participant playing cards you need, within the order you need them.
5. One-click information exports! Export our projections and leaderboards in your private tasks.
6. Take away the images on the house web page! (Actually, this does not sound so nice to us, however some folks wished it, and we like to provide our Members what they need.)
7. Much more Steamer projections! We now have handedness, percentile, and context impartial projections accessible for Members solely.
8. Get FanGraphs Stroll-Off, a custom-made yr finish evaluation! Discover out precisely the way you used FanGraphs this yr, and the way that compares to different Members. Do not be a sufferer of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, completely for Members.
10. Assist assist FanGraphs and our whole employees! Our Members present us with essential assets to enhance the location and ship new options!
We hope you will take into account a Membership at the moment, for your self or as a present! And we understand this has been an awfully lengthy gross sales pitch, so we have additionally eliminated all the opposite adverts on this article. We did not wish to overdo it.
Stop threw six pitches no less than as soon as in 2025, however with solely rare allowances for a sinker or a gradual curve, his arsenal is generally fastball-slider. The heater, which averaged 97.1 mph in 2025, has some minimize motion and rise, whereas the slider is a decent upper-80s providing. Both one is tough to deal with in isolation, and in live performance they’re among the many finest two-pitch swing-and-miss combos within the league.
Stop led all certified starters in whiff price in 2025. In reality, he led all pitchers of any function in whiff price even for those who decrease the innings threshold to 80. He led all certified starters in whiff price in 2024, as nicely. He was fifth in 2023, and second in each 2022 and 2021.
Given the state of beginning pitching at the moment, it’s notable that Stop has certified for the ERA title six seasons operating. Since he made his main league debut in 2019, he’s missed a complete of two begins because of harm, and he’s by no means visited the foremost league injured record.
Now, all beginning pitchers are sturdy till they’re not — simply ask Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, and Corbin Burnes, to call a couple of off the highest of my head — however Stop is essentially the most sturdy front-end arm you’re going to seek out except you’ve a time machine.
The Blue Jays had a powerful rotation final season, but it surely’s straightforward to understand why they’d wish to add one other frontline starter. Their run to the World Sequence trusted some sensible best-case state of affairs contributions from pitchers on each ends of the growing old curve: Max Scherzer and Trey Yesavage. Even with a full season of Yesavage and deadline acquisition Shane Bieber anticipated in 2026, Scherzer and Chris Bassitt are sure free of charge company this winter.
There was a time when Bieber, José Berríos, and Kevin Gausman had been all capital-A Aces, however I don’t know for those who can rely on that persevering with as all of them get into their 30s. And whereas I’ve been an enormous Trey Yesavage fan since earlier than most of you knew who Trey Yesavage was (don’t fear, I’ve proof), I’m additionally sufficiently old to recollect how everybody obtained forward of themselves with Michael Wacha primarily based on one good postseason run again in 2013. Might Yesavage rip off 10 straight years of Cy Younger-quality work? I suppose. I simply wouldn’t make {that a} load-bearing assumption whereas making an attempt to construct a crew that would win the AL East.
Stop is considered one of two pitchers on this free agent class (Framber Valdez being the opposite) whom I’d describe as an improve on anybody the Blue Jays had underneath contract on Wednesday morning. Along with liking this signing on the idea that it signifies the Blue Jays’ intent to pour assets into the foremost league roster, on basic precept I feel it’s cheaper in the long term to buy on the prime of the free agent market than it’s to attempt to outsmart the opposite 29 guys who assume such as you by searching for a cut price within the second tier.
With that mentioned, the Blue Jays clearly assume Stop is an elite beginning pitcher. His $210 million sticker worth is tied for the seventh-largest whole worth ever awarded to a pitcher. Sixth largest, for those who don’t rely Shohei Ohtani. Based on Mitch Bannon, The Athletic’s Blue Jays beat reporter, Stop’s contract is heavy on the dreaded deferred cash, which reduces the AAV to roughly $26 million.
That lessens the blow considerably, however Toronto’s religion in Stop looks like an outlier opinion. Ben Clemens had Stop signing for $31 million a yr, however over solely 5 years, not seven. Our readers, on the mixture, are even much less bullish on Stop, predicting that he’d signal for 5 years at $26 million per, give or take a couple of hundred thousand relying on whether or not you need the imply or median crowdsource numbers.
Which is bizarre, as a result of Stop is each the perfect bat-missing starter within the majors and the least injury-prone starter within the majors. Aren’t these the 2 most essential attributes for a pitcher?
Certainly they’re, however prepare for the mom of all backhanded compliments: Stop is the sensible worst-case state of affairs for a pitcher who’s the perfect on the planet on the two most essential issues a pitcher must do.
Over the previous six seasons, Stop leads all beginning pitchers not solely in strikeouts, but in addition in video games began. (Berríos is second in begins, Gausman fourth, Bassitt seventh, and Yusei Kikuchi, who spent two and a half season in Toronto, is thirteenth. The Blue Jays have a sort.)
However whereas Stop leads the league in begins by clear daylight, he’s solely eighth in innings pitched as a starter and fourth in batters confronted. Out of the 201 pitchers who’ve made 50 or extra large league begins since 2020, Stop is 72nd in batters confronted per begin and 79th in innings pitched per begin. His stroll price, which has been inside four-tenths of 10% in 4 of the previous 5 seasons, can be one of many worst you’ll discover amongst high-volume pitchers. Third worst, to be precise, out of 52 certified starters this previous yr.
And Stop’s cutter-action fastball and vertical slider current a much less extreme model of the elevator shaft drawback I wrote about earlier this week within the context of Ryan Helsley. Hitters, for essentially the most half, are guessing from between two pitches with Stop. Whereas these pitches come in several velocity bands with totally different vertical motion profiles — which makes them tunnel higher — they’ve the identical lateral motion profile, which takes away a component of uncertainty.
Stop’s swing-and-miss numbers are — and I apologize for belaboring this level but it surely bears repeating — the perfect of any starter in baseball, however he’s mediocre at suppressing laborious contact. Hitters won’t guess appropriately that always, however after they do, they will do fairly a bit of injury.
How the Whiff-Getters Did at Stopping Walks and Exhausting Contact
Supply: Baseball Savant
Of the ten certified starters with the perfect swing-and-miss charges in baseball in 2025, Stop had the worst stroll price and second-worst xwOBACON. The record of finest whiff charges amongst certified starters in 2025 was nearly congruent with the record of finest ERA- numbers amongst certified starters. Jesús Luzardo, who obtained Monstars’d for a pair begins round Memorial Day, which wrecked his ERA, is the one pitcher aside from Stop to land within the prime 10 in whiff price however exterior the highest 13 in ERA-.
In different phrases, and I’m sorry for burying the lede right here, however Stop had a 4.55 ERA in 2025.
He does this typically, alternates dominant seasons with iffy ones. In 2022, Stop was the AL Cy Younger runner-up, with an opponent BABIP of .260. The next yr, he had a BABIP of .330, and his ERA was within the mid-4.00s. The identical sample repeated up to now two seasons: .263 BABIP and three.47 ERA in 2024, .320 BABIP in 2025.
Provided that each FIP and xERA assume Stop’s ERA was a run too excessive, and his quality-of-contact numbers didn’t swell up like a marshmallow in a vacuum chamber like they did in 2023, I’m comfortable to increase Stop the advantage of the doubt over his ugly ERA in 2025.
The factor is, that good thing about the doubt was already priced into that five-year, $130 million(ish) estimate from the readers, or the five-year, $155 million estimate from Ben. The Blue Jays paid over the chances.
Which, as anybody who’s had Friedman’s Legislation cited at them can attest, is simply how free company works. Often, the winner overpays by somewhat. Both the Blue Jays know one thing the remainder of us don’t, or they overpaid by loads.